Politics impedes Indonesian leader's 2014-19 agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Tax Policies ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Transportation Projects ◽  
Public Revenue ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform

Subject Political constraints to Jokowi's reform agenda. Significance In recent speeches, especially his state of the nation address and the budget speech last month, Jokowi has stressed the need for wide-ranging economic reform, particularly investment in infrastructure and human resources, deregulation, bureaucratic reform and corruption eradication programmes. The tone and emphasis of these reform-focused speeches have differed significantly from last year's statements, where rhetoric of economic nationalism dominated. Impacts Falling public revenue will strengthen the finance ministry's resolve to pursue major corporates such as Google for tax. This will be popular politically, but would rattle foreign investors concerned about unpredictable tax policies. The outcome of the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial elections holds the key to important transportation projects underway in the capital.

New Croatian government must tackle structural malaise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Viability ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Economic Liberalism ◽  
Rare Opportunity ◽  
Commercial Environment

Subject Croatia's new government. Significance Following early elections in September, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) have agreed to form a new, centre-right coalition under the premiership of Andrej Plenkovic. While the basic composition of the new government remains the same as the last, the present coalition has eschewed its predecessor's nationalist and protectionist bent in favour of political and economic liberalism. Croatia has thus embraced European conventions at a time when the EU's policy prescriptions are being widely challenged in much of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). Impacts The new government has a rare opportunity to enact meaningful fiscal and structural reforms vital to Croatia's long-term economic viability. Promised reforms to the commercial environment could make Croatia a more attractive place for foreign investors to establish operations. The election of a mainstream, pro-European government will momentarily arrest the CEE-wide trend towards political and economic nationalism.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Crisis may spell end of South Korea's Park presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Security Clearance ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political crisis in South Korea. Significance President Park Geun-hye, whose leadership has been characterised foremost by scandals and the failure of every major policy initiative, faces her worst crisis yet. She admitted on October 25 to sharing official documents with Choi Sun-sil -- a long-time associate who has no formal post or security clearance. Park sacked all her senior secretaries on October 28, and the next day prosecutors searched the presidential office, and demonstrators called on Park to resign. Yesterday Choi flew back from Germany, where she had been lying low since July, saying she will co-operate with investigations. To opposition outrage, no move was made to arrest her upon arrival. Impacts The crisis is deeply negative for governance, domestically and abroad, especially if lines of authority in Seoul become contested. Park now has no standing left to press any elements of her fraying economic reform agenda. The National Assembly, normally secondary to the executive branch, will become the main locus of power for the time being. Though the ruling party seeks to distance itself, the scandal boosts the opposition's chances of regaining the presidency. The already flagging push (which Park spearheaded) for greater international pressure on Pyongyang will lose further momentum.

Compromise may undermine UN peace and security reform

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Member State ◽  
Resistance To Change ◽  
Middle Management ◽  
Leadership Skills ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Peace And Security

Subject Reform of the UN's peace and security architecture. Significance UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was elected on a reform agenda, including promises to transform arguably the UN’s most prominent public face: its peace and security architecture. However, there are growing indications that his vision is being diluted by a combination of bureaucratic resistance and member state divisions, despite general support for this agenda. Impacts The UN will remain hobbled by a human resources system that is inefficient, opaque and lacks accountability. Frustrations among UN staff who feel unsupported in personal or career development may undermine efficiency. Stagnation and lack of leadership skills in UN middle management may exacerbate resistance to change.

USMCA could influence future trade deals’ focus

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Trade Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Trade Deals

Significance US President Donald Trump has left the Trans-Pacific Partnership and escalated trade frictions with China. The USMCA, by contrast, shows a trade deal renegotiated, the implementation of which will be watched for its implications for other US trade activity, especially with the presidential election coming in November. Impacts COVID-19 disruptions mean some aspects of the USMCA, such as rules of origin, will be delayed. If Trump is re-elected, he will continue his tariff-driven efforts to secure Chinese economic reform for US firms. Biden would aspire to strengthen US-Asian trade ties but would focus first on smoothing trade with existing partners. China and neighbours should assume a Mexican challenge to their production, especially of autos, steel and textiles. Trump will tout the USMCA as evidence his trade reform agenda works.

Russian Far East development will be Kremlin priority

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Kuril Islands ◽  
Northern Territories

Subject Russian Far East policy. Significance Moscow presented a new policy for the accelerated economic development of Russia's Far East at the East Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 3-5. The event attracted 32 foreign delegations, the largest of which were from China, South Korea and Japan. More than 80 contracts were signed with domestic and foreign investors. Developing the region is in line with Moscow's geopolitical pivot towards the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, partly spurred by Western sanctions. Impacts Lack of qualified human resources in the region hinders development. Investment projects are likely to concentrate around natural resources, but they are expected to include processing. Failure by Russia and Japan to negotiate a solution to the Kuril Islands (Northern Territories) row will hinder ties and cause tensions.

Pension reform could derail France’s Macron

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Innovation Fund ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.

Crisis spurs Cuban monetary reform

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Social Tension

Significance This step is essential to advancing the country’s economic reform agenda, but it promises to be tricky, putting pressure on inefficient state companies, threatening savings and risking inflation dynamics that will be difficult to control. Impacts Inflation fears will see demand for foreign currency on the black market rise further. Despite government pledges to guarantee cash and savings, people will seek to invest or hoard goods, increasing pressure on provisions. Social tension may rise but major unrest is unlikely during the pandemic, with efforts to contain the virus commanding widespread support.

Brazil's privatisations will suffer electoral setbacks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Municipal Government ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Central State ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Bargaining ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Privatisation Programme ◽  
Infrastructure Services

Subject The government's privatisation programme. Significance The programme of privatisations and concessions figures high on President Michel Temer’s reform agenda. A total of 145 projects have been proposed since 2016 in a wide range of sectors, including energy and other infrastructure at central, state and municipal government levels. Better services and market efficiency are among the government’s arguments for the programme, although it may contribute primarily to alleviating fiscal budget constraints and attracting foreign investors. Impacts Public infrastructure services will remain high on Brazil’s privatisation agenda. Political turbulence and the proximity of next year’s elections may delay planned privatisations and concessions. The use of public assets as a source of political bargaining may prove harmful to the country’s economic recovery.

Ethiopia’s homegrown economic reforms face challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Income Country ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for Ethiopia's economic reform agenda. Significance The government has launched a “Homegrown Economic Reform” agenda, which aims to transform Ethiopia from a largely agrarian low-income country to an industrialised lower-middle-income country by 2030. This will require the private sector to take charge of growth amid waning public sector financing capacity. However, significant economic liberalisation within this timeframe is unrealistic given the entrenched nature of the old command economy. Impacts Ethiopia has overtaken Angola as Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy but slowing growth could threaten this new status. The large external debt burden and high import content of the new agenda will curb plans to liberalise the exchange rate. Ethio Telecom and Ethiopian Airlines will be the crown jewels among proposed privatisation offerings.

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