Crisis spurs Cuban monetary reform

Significance This step is essential to advancing the country’s economic reform agenda, but it promises to be tricky, putting pressure on inefficient state companies, threatening savings and risking inflation dynamics that will be difficult to control. Impacts Inflation fears will see demand for foreign currency on the black market rise further. Despite government pledges to guarantee cash and savings, people will seek to invest or hoard goods, increasing pressure on provisions. Social tension may rise but major unrest is unlikely during the pandemic, with efforts to contain the virus commanding widespread support.

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mabid Ali Al-Jarhi

Purpose This paper aims to provide an economic rationale for Islamic finance. Design/methodology/approach Its methodology is simple. It starts with listing the contributions to economic analysis relevant to the required rationale in the theories of banking, finance, price, money and macroeconomics, to identify the main rationale for Islamic finance. A concise description of the author’s model for an Islamic economic system, within which Islamic finance can be operational, is provided. Findings The paper finds distinct advantages of Islamic finance, when properly applied within the author’s model. Islamic finance can therefore be a candidate as a reform agenda for conventional finance. It opens the door for significant monetary reform in currently prevalent economic systems. Research limitations/implications The first limitation of the paper is that the distinct benefits of Islamic finance are all of macroeconomic types which are external to Islamic banking and finance institutions. They are therefore not expected to motivate such institutions to apply Islamic finance to the letter, without regulators interference to ensure strict application. The second limitation is the necessity to set up enabling institutional and regulatory arrangements for Islamic finance. Originality/value The results are unique as they challenge the received doctrine and provide non-religious rationale for Islamic finance.


Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.


Subject Political crisis in South Korea. Significance President Park Geun-hye, whose leadership has been characterised foremost by scandals and the failure of every major policy initiative, faces her worst crisis yet. She admitted on October 25 to sharing official documents with Choi Sun-sil -- a long-time associate who has no formal post or security clearance. Park sacked all her senior secretaries on October 28, and the next day prosecutors searched the presidential office, and demonstrators called on Park to resign. Yesterday Choi flew back from Germany, where she had been lying low since July, saying she will co-operate with investigations. To opposition outrage, no move was made to arrest her upon arrival. Impacts The crisis is deeply negative for governance, domestically and abroad, especially if lines of authority in Seoul become contested. Park now has no standing left to press any elements of her fraying economic reform agenda. The National Assembly, normally secondary to the executive branch, will become the main locus of power for the time being. Though the ruling party seeks to distance itself, the scandal boosts the opposition's chances of regaining the presidency. The already flagging push (which Park spearheaded) for greater international pressure on Pyongyang will lose further momentum.


Significance US President Donald Trump has left the Trans-Pacific Partnership and escalated trade frictions with China. The USMCA, by contrast, shows a trade deal renegotiated, the implementation of which will be watched for its implications for other US trade activity, especially with the presidential election coming in November. Impacts COVID-19 disruptions mean some aspects of the USMCA, such as rules of origin, will be delayed. If Trump is re-elected, he will continue his tariff-driven efforts to secure Chinese economic reform for US firms. Biden would aspire to strengthen US-Asian trade ties but would focus first on smoothing trade with existing partners. China and neighbours should assume a Mexican challenge to their production, especially of autos, steel and textiles. Trump will tout the USMCA as evidence his trade reform agenda works.


Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.


Significance So far, state-sector price controls and price caps on food and private markets have prevented runaway inflation. However, producers are withholding goods or selling on the black market, exacerbating shortages. Dollars trade on the street for twice the official exchange rate. Impacts Food shortages and rising prices will fuel discontent; criticism of the government will grow on social media. The dollarised retail sector and the ubiquitous black market will constrain coherent economic policy planning. Havana hopes COVID-19 vaccine development will help revive international tourism and become a new foreign currency earner.


Subject The second phase of the government's reform agenda. Significance The closing months of 2016 promise to be busy as the government pushes several pieces of legislation through parliament, in line with election promises. These include the long-awaited bill on converting foreign-currency mortgages denominated in Swiss francs and a revised budget for 2017. Impacts The fiscal deficit is likely to be contained within the EU's 3% limit in 2016-17 but rise beyond that threshold in 2018. Until infrastructure-led investment takes effect, low interest rates and a strong labour market may help private consumption support growth. As more state-owned companies look to invest in ageing infrastructure, public investment will become a key growth driver after 2018.


Subject Political constraints to Jokowi's reform agenda. Significance In recent speeches, especially his state of the nation address and the budget speech last month, Jokowi has stressed the need for wide-ranging economic reform, particularly investment in infrastructure and human resources, deregulation, bureaucratic reform and corruption eradication programmes. The tone and emphasis of these reform-focused speeches have differed significantly from last year's statements, where rhetoric of economic nationalism dominated. Impacts Falling public revenue will strengthen the finance ministry's resolve to pursue major corporates such as Google for tax. This will be popular politically, but would rattle foreign investors concerned about unpredictable tax policies. The outcome of the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial elections holds the key to important transportation projects underway in the capital.


Subject Outlook for Ethiopia's economic reform agenda. Significance The government has launched a “Homegrown Economic Reform” agenda, which aims to transform Ethiopia from a largely agrarian low-income country to an industrialised lower-middle-income country by 2030. This will require the private sector to take charge of growth amid waning public sector financing capacity. However, significant economic liberalisation within this timeframe is unrealistic given the entrenched nature of the old command economy. Impacts Ethiopia has overtaken Angola as Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy but slowing growth could threaten this new status. The large external debt burden and high import content of the new agenda will curb plans to liberalise the exchange rate. Ethio Telecom and Ethiopian Airlines will be the crown jewels among proposed privatisation offerings.


Headline CHINA: Xi throws weight behind economic reform agenda


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