Brazil domestic woes set back ambitious Africa policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
West Africa ◽  
International Law ◽  
Financial Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance The case investigates whether Lula illegally used his overseas connections to assist Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht, which has considerable African investments. Expanding influence into Africa began under Lula. It has since been at the heart of Brazil's broader push to advance its global and regional credentials. The economic slowdown raised doubts about its ability to sustain this push. The Petrobras corruption scandal has accelerated such scepticism, threatening to reduce significantly the scope of Brazil's foreign policy in the region. Impacts Ties with smaller Lusophone states in West Africa prioritise security, reflecting that sub-region's geostrategic position for Brazil. Brazil plays prominent international law and justice roles in those states but through UN structures -- limiting the financial impact. Brazil's small military capacity constrains its scope to rebuff US military presence in the smaller Lusophone states.

NATO Baltic exercises will prompt risky behaviour

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Risky Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Baltic

Significance BALTOPS 16 will be the largest NATO maritime exercise in the Baltic Sea in recent years. The exercise is also held mere weeks before NATO's July 8-9 summit in Warsaw, and therefore serves as a tangible prelude to the alliance's intent to address renewed Russian security challenges in the region. Impacts Improvements in Western missile defence systems will make it more difficult politically to undergo arms control cooperation with Moscow. Poland's military modernisation programme will boost its ability to be a security partner of the Baltic states. Washington is unlikely to approve a permanent US military presence in the Baltic states in the near-to-medium term.

Iraqi premier and militias in slow-burn confrontation

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Political Incentives ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Security Analyst ◽  
Revenue Streams ◽  
Electoral Law ◽  
Roll Back

Significance He has moved to roll back some of their penetration of state structures and revenue streams. However, they are striking back, with ongoing rocket attacks targeting US interests and probable responsibility for the assassination of a prominent security analyst. Impacts As cyber and covert tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, Tehran could use Iraqi militias as a tool to strike back. If US-led coalition troops were to withdraw under pressure, that would in turn undermine the residual US military presence in Syria. Austerity measures and power cuts could bring renewed mass protests, again shifting political incentives. An early election scenario would intensify political focus on flaws in the new electoral law.

Belarus to seek east-west balance if Russia allows it

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Bases ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Policy Statements ◽  
East West

Significance Under pressure to comply with Russia's demands for greater integration, Belarus is trying to preserve an independent, non-aggressive posture. This often involves apparently conflicting foreign policy statements, but the desire not to be swallowed up as a de facto Russian province seems genuine. Movement towards tax integration with Moscow may reduce President Alexander Lukashenka's room for manoeuvre. Impacts An opinion poll shows that support for ‘union’ with Russia is falling but still above 50%, although few want state unification. Lukashenka will tolerate opposition positions that support independence but do not challenge his commitment to it. Belarus's rejection of military bases will not dissuade Poland from lobbying NATO for a large military presence.

New Philippines foreign policy may be destabilising

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Position

Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.

Polish PiS may be largest party yet fail to govern

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
International Role ◽  
Policy Agendas

Significance Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate. Impacts PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity. However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies. PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy. A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.

China will expand naval base network in Indian Ocean

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Bases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Chinese Military ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
Base Network

Subject Chinese military bases in the Indian Ocean. Significance China relies on shipping through the Indian Ocean for its energy. A large and growing number of Chinese nationals live in unstable countries in the region. These concerns are driving China to expand its military presence there. A network of bases would increase Beijing's options should it ever need to protect shipping from interdiction or protect Chinese nationals caught up in a civil war. Impacts India will respond to China’s growing presence by accelerating its security partnerships and military bases in the Indian Ocean. US military dominance in the Indian Ocean is being eroded. Competition for regional influence will grow among China, India, the United States, and potentially some middle players.

A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Action ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Significance The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes. Impacts Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence. The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence. As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse. Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.

EU neighbours’ policy towards Belarus will not soften

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Democratic Values ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Energy Sources ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Political Cooperation ◽  
The Baltic

Significance Poland and the Baltic states have strongly condemned the repression of protests following the 2020 elections in Belarus, supporting the opposition and engaging the international community against President Alexander Lukashenka's government. Their policies towards Belarus previously encouraged economic and political cooperation, trade and independence from Russia. Now democratic values are being prioritised over economic concerns. Impacts Belarus will pursue a foreign policy more closely oriented to Russia, having lost the support of its closest EU allies. Lukashenka will find it harder to resist pressure to increase Russia's military presence in Belarus. The Baltic states will explore alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on Belarus.

Biden's foreign policy has human rights emphasis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Law ◽  
Democracy Promotion ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Council ◽  
International Human

Significance Separately, his administration on February 11 announced a sanctions regime to pressure the Myanmar military to reverse the recent coup. It has also instigated a return to membership of the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council, which the former US administration left in 2018. Impacts A values-based foreign policy will connect with Congress, where there is support for human rights and democracy promotion. Biden will exacerbate some political tensions over Israel as he increases US participation in international human rights foruns. Under international law, the designation of China’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs as genocide would require action from Washington.

Philippines tilts towards Russia and China carry risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Development Plans

Significance This is part of his desire for an 'independent' foreign policy, which includes Manila distancing itself from Washington and seeking closer economic and military ties with China and Russia. Impacts Philippine purchases of Chinese and Russian arms will probably grow. Future US military aid to the Philippines may be curtailed or cancelled. China will provide more financing support for the Duterte administration's infrastructure development plans. Closer ties with Beijing and Moscow may reduce Manila's interest in joining the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. The mid-November APEC Summit in Peru provides further opportunity for Duterte to meet Russian and Chinese leaders.

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