Moreno will aim for first-round win in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Presidential hopefuls. Significance On October 1, Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, nominated former Vice President Lenin Moreno as its presidential candidate in the elections of February 19. The news has boosted the government, raising hopes of a victory in the first round of the elections. However, the possibility a candidate from the right winning in a second round cannot be discounted. Impacts Managing the economic slowdown will be one of the main challenges for the government in the lead-up to the election. Securing external financing and maintaining relatively high levels of public spending will remain a priority. Opposition candidates will try to make gains from the economic slowdown, the rise in public debt and corruption allegations.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

Ecuador unlikely to scrap dollarisation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Severe Strain ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The future of dollarisation in a context of low oil prices. Significance Oil revenues have underpinned the popularity of President Rafael Correa's government by enabling spending on welfare, infrastructure and development that has boosted economic growth. The collapse of world oil prices has placed the dollar-denominated economy under severe strain and raised doubts about the future of dollarisation in Ecuador. Impacts The fiscal challenges the government is facing will provide the opposition with an opportunity to strengthen in 2015. The right will play on concerns over the management of the economy, the scale of public debt and the size of the state. The left will attack the government for failing to reduce Ecuador's reliance on oil and undertake wider and deeper reforms.

Race to succeed Correa gets underway in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Possible successors to President Rafael Correa. Significance The surprising news that President Rafael Correa will not stand in the 2017 presidential elections has triggered a debate over who the ruling party, Alianza Pais, will select as its candidate. The task confronting the party is to choose a candidate who has the potential to secure low and middle-income votes on the one hand and appeal to national and international investors on the other. Striking this balance will be particularly important as the collapse of world oil prices and slowdown of economic growth has damaged the government and fuelled social and political tensions. Impacts Whoever Alianza Pais selects is likely to be the strong favourite, despite the government's difficulties in recent months. The key election battle is likely to be over control of the legislature rather than the presidency. The primary challenge for the opposition to the right will be to find a candidate capable of uniting various leaders and factions.

Cracks will extend within Ecuador’s ruling party

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The People ◽  
Personal Wealth ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Friction within Ecuador’s ruling party Significance Tensions within Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, came to the surface on August 3 when President Lenin Moreno stripped Vice President Jorge Glas of his official functions within government. The move came after Glas wrote a public letter criticising Moreno, and fresh evidence emerged of corruption within the government of former President Rafael Correa. The conflict within the government reflects wider divisions within Alianza Pais as the party adjusts to a change in leadership and the Moreno administration grapples with the negative legacies of the previous administration. Impacts High profile infighting will leave the government open to accusations of neglecting its responsibilities to the people. Correa will exploit divisions within the government and party to increase his chances of returning to power. Moreno faces the deeper challenge of tackling a political culture that views government posts as a platform for personal wealth creation.

Corruption could define Moreno's presidency in Ecuador

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vice Presidency ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance While Correa's chosen successor, President Lenin Moreno, won April's presidential election, he did so narrowly, and his efforts since taking office to reach out to other parties, engaging them in a 'national dialogue', have been met with derision by both Correa himself and substantial sections of the ruling party, Alianza Pais. Moreno's handling of corruption scandals linked to his predecessor's administrations has exacerbated tensions within the government, with demands to hold public officials to account causing consternation in some quarters and placing the spotlight on Vice-President Jorge Glas, who has been implicated. Impacts Glas's continued vice presidency is likely to be politically damaging regardless of the success of impeachment procedings. While Correa is expected to spend most of his time overseas, he will continue to exert influence over the handling of the corruption cases. Evidence of widespread corruption taking place under Correa will damage his credibility and limit his chances of returning to power.

Algerian energy sector's success hinges on investment

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Taking Charge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Algeria's economic outlook. Significance The ongoing political crisis which led to the resignation of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has not yet made any measurable impact on the economy. Yet whoever ends up taking charge of the country’s affairs will face the challenge of galvanising an economy beset with deep structural flaws, amid growing financial pressures as oil and gas revenue is in decline and popular demands for higher public spending have become more insistent. Impacts Oil companies will remain engaged, although they may delay new major investments until there is more clarity on policy. Pressure on the dinar will mount, although thus far the exchange rate has remained stable despite the political turbulence. The government and other political stakeholders’ stance not to seek external financing may not be tenable for much longer.

Briceno’s difficulties will benefit Belize’s UDP

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Government

Significance Belize’s economic slowdown is proving prolonged, driven by the sharp drop in tourist arrivals as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has reduced spending and announced an austerity budget for 2021-22. Tourism looks likely to pick up somewhat this year, but high public debt and unemployment will weigh on economic activity into 2022. Impacts Failure to agree a debt restructuring could force Belize to seek an IMF loan. Protracted debt negotiations will deter investment in the short term. Ongoing vaccine uptake in the United States will be crucial for Belize’s tourism sector, as it is the main tourism source country.

scholarly journals Neopatrimonialism and Party Clientelism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teimuraz Kareli
Keyword(s):  
Social Groups ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Basic Features ◽  
The Right ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Ruling Party

The article deals with the features of formation of the party systems in the post-Soviet space. To understand the specific processes, the attention is focused on the inverse logic of the post-Soviet states, the basic features of which can be expressed by the concept of neopatrimonialism. In this context the functioning features of political parties, their principal tasks and the logic of creating the "power party" are described. The article examines the key criteria for the concept of the dominant party, such as its ability to consistently and steadily win the elections, the significant duration of its stay in power, as well as its personnel Control over the government. In the sociopolitical discourse the "power party" enjoys a privileged ideological position and has more opportunities compared to its competitors to appeal to voters. Along with that the party dominance reveals itself not only in its external manifestation (the stay in power), but also in the substantial one – the ability to exercise an effective political choice. The article analyzes the factors of sustainability of the "power party" systems: the historical merits of the "power party"; the ruling party’s ability to effectively take advantage of the electoral system; its strong relationships with the most affluent social groups and major corporations, as well as with the predominant ethnic or linguistic social groups; a privileged access of the ruling party to media resources. These factors are also effective in the polycentric political systems without any dominant party. However, under the dominant party systems they manifest themselves in a complex way, providing the ruling camp with a multi-layered protection due to a synergy effect. Particular attention is paid to the phenomenon of clientelism, widely used by the ruling party as a strategy of political mobilization. However, if discrimination arose by clientelism reaches the level that denies clients the right to choose, this is certainly not consistent with the rules of democracy.

Third COVID wave will further dampen Algeria's economy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government

Significance The government has reimposed social distancing restrictions, but a reinvigorated pandemic will hurt the economy further and forestall any economic turnaround. Impacts Algeria may find itself at a disadvantage compared to Morocco and Egypt, which have made greater progress countering the pandemic. The longer Algeria’s economic turnaround is delayed, the more likely it is that the country will have to resort to external financing. If the country’s economic crisis becomes more acute, the president would likely reshuffle the cabinet in an effort to shift blame. The president himself may also come under pressure to resign.

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