Rivalries may cap Libya's oil export potential

Significance Libya's pre-revolution oil production level of around 1.6 million b/d has been disrupted by conflict since 2011. Impacts Further disputes over oil shipments and revenue management are likely. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the Tobruk administration may also try to instigate new challenges to the National Oil Company. Under present conditions, only minor, place-holding investments in oil and gas will materialise. The GNA's credibility may further weaken.

Subject Yemeni oil production. Significance The oil and gas sector -- which was in any case in long-term decline, owing to a lack of investment -- suffered serious disruption after civil war broke out in March 2015, with oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining facilities closed, and ports blockaded to prevent delivery of oil products. The internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has renewed efforts to encourage a recovery in oil production since late 2016, but these are hampered by the civil war and lawlessness in remote areas. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be the main sources of oil imports, probably on concessional terms. Hydrocarbon exports will not provide sufficient finance for post-conflict reconstruction. Exports of LNG are unlikely to restart before 2020 at the earliest. A crisis of power provision will expand the market for small solar panels.


Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.


Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.


Significance He aims to increase incentives for private firms and foreign state-owned enterprises to operate in Ecuador, while reducing the role of national oil company Petroecuador. The reforms, if implemented, may have their intended effect on oil production but they will stoke political tensions and will be challenged by indigenous and environmental movements. Impacts Plans to boost oil production will reassure international investors about the government’s ability to service foreign debt obligations. Global campaigns against funding oil investment might limit international investment in the oil sector to some degree. Increased oil production and exports will alleviate balance of payments constraints on economic growth.


Significance Crucial to the new framework's success will be the ongoing overhaul of state-owned oil company Sonangol, alongside an oil price recovery, as well as politically contentious fuel subsidy removals. Impacts Dollar-denominated bonds have recovered somewhat from their April slump, offering partial relief amid the government’s debt crisis. Controversies surrounding former Vice-President Manuel Vicente will weaken his influence at Sonangol, bolstering the new CEO's autonomy. The opposition remains divided, but calls are growing for a united front against the ruling party in the 2022 general elections.


Significance The government signed up to agreements by OPEC and non-OPEC states in December 2016 to cut oil production for six months in an attempt to boost prices. The move demonstrated a desire to show solidarity, even though it pushed Oman below its recently achieved crude oil production record of 1 million barrels per day (b/d), reducing fiscal revenue. Impacts Positive Omani gas cooperation with Iran might tempt other Gulf Arab states, such as Qatar and Kuwait, to follow suit. Any deeper economic cooperation with Tehran would strain Muscat-Riyadh relations, already tense because of differences over Yemen. If new oil and gas exploitation methods succeed, Oman could become a regional leader in energy innovation. The country is poorly prepared for its upcoming post-oil transition, which will hit the rentier economy.


Subject Nigeria oil and gas developments. Significance Africa's biggest crude oil producer has once again been plagued by fuel shortages over the Christmas and New Year holiday period. A threatened strike by oil workers, in addition to Niger Delta militants recently announcing an end to a ceasefire, comes amid rising oil production and exports that has offered some relief to the hard-pressed economy. Fuel shortages place the spotlight once more on the service-delivery failings of President Muhammadu Buhari's government and the fragile state of the naira. Impacts Delta militants may have greater leverage as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) wants stability ahead of a re-election campaign. Improving oil production will come up against pressure from OPEC to limit supply. With chronic delays to planned infrastructure projects, electricity and fuel shortages will be a persistent problem.


Subject The context and impact of changes in the Algerian state oil firm. Significance The appointment in February of its third new chief executive within a year is symptomatic of deep malaise in the national oil company, Sonatrach. The managerial turbulence comes as the company’s revenues are under pressure owing to a combination of declining production and tumbling oil and gas prices. Impacts Algeria faces the prospect of becoming a net energy importer if investment in oil and gas production, plus renewables, keeps marking time. The new Sonatrach chief will have difficulty imposing his authority on a company beset by corruption and factional rivalries. Progress on a key refinery project, for which the contract was signed in January, will have a bearing on medium-term fuel supply balance.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atulkumar Dabhi ◽  
Mahdi Al-Qazweeni ◽  
Mohammed Al-Otaibi ◽  
Meshari Al-Hasan ◽  
Saleh Al-Jabri

Subject Libya's economy. Significance Libyan oil production and exports have been rising in the past few months. Domestic and international concern about Libya's economic situation has fluctuated. For decades, public spending depended almost entirely on oil and gas export earnings. However, the political crisis since 2014 disrupted oil production and exports, while spending on major infrastructure and hydrocarbons projects has largely halted. Impacts The gap between the official and black market rates for the Libyan dinar may narrow slightly, but liquidity problems will persist. Oil production is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels before 2018 at the earliest. Libyan and Middle Eastern companies will find opportunities for small- and medium-scale investment.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document