Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.


Subject Outlook for China's oil sector. Significance China's 'big three' oil companies have this month announced changes to their top management. The three companies have been under pressure from corruption investigations, and the collapse in global oil prices has weakened them financially. The latest reshuffles reveal the importance of politics in shaping the behaviour of China's oil and gas companies, and with it the competitive landscape of China's energy industry and global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. Impacts There will be partial consolidation of some NOC assets, but 'mega-mergers' are unlikely. China's oil and gas companies will invest overseas with more robust government backing. Sinopec and CNPC will focus on upgrading refining capacity to meet more stringent fuel quality standards. Foreign investors will find new opportunities as the NOC's sell assets and the government opens the sector to private firms.


Significance The economy has faced major challenges recently: recurring disruptions to the oil and gas sector, state fragmentation and war between the government in Tripoli and the armed forces led by eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. Following agreements last year between Tripoli and Haftar to lift a nine-month oil blockade, oil production recovered sharply in the last quarter of 2020, reaching 1.28 million barrels per day (b/d) in December. Impacts The government may make ambitious new pledges on public and infrastructure spending. Major new projects will still be slow to materialise, though the prime minister is likely to initiate rebuilding projects. Plans for reconstruction projects will probably accelerate, but implementation will lag. The oil sector will manage infrastructure upgrades efficiently.


Subject Effect of low oil prices on China. Significance China is the world's second-largest oil user and imports nearly 60% of its annual requirements. If oil prices remain below 50 dollars per barrel, China's import bill for crude oil will fall by tens of billions of dollars in 2015, while the national oil companies (NOCs) face a difficult time as their profits from oil production are squeezed. However, the consequences are not straightforward due to the government's role in setting energy prices and the mix of commercial and state objectives of the NOCs. Impacts Financial pressure on China's NOCs will not be as great as on their international counterparts. The NOCs are likely to embark on a spree of buying overseas oil and gas assets. With contracted gas supplies exceeding domestic demand, Chinese LNG importers will sell surplus on the international market.


Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.


Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwesi Amponsah-Tawiah ◽  
Kwasi Dartey-Baah ◽  
Kobena Osam

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the potential impact of the presence of oil resource on the Ghanaian society. Specifically, the paper investigates the relationship between key stakeholders in the oil sector, how stakeholder interactions create the potential for collision and advances measures aimed at turning possible collision into cooperation. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review-based approach, drawing on existing literature in a number of areas including corporate social responsibility (CSR), oil and gas industry in Ghana and Nigeria as well as communication. Findings – The paper advances that expectations of stakeholders as regards oil being a panacea to all their problems must be managed to avoid possible collision. Additionally, Ghana’s oil industry must identify and engage all stakeholders in planning suitable and sustainable CSR programmes for economic development, thus fostering a friendly environment for oil companies. Transparency and accountability are also needed to promote cooperation rather than collision among stakeholders in Ghana’s oil industry. Originality/value – This paper raises and brings to the fore critical issues that can lead to potential collisions in the oil and gas industry in Ghana if not well-managed, and thus an innovative work in that regard.


Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.


Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.


Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.


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