Economic realities will trump Angolan oil and gas plan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Partial Relief ◽  
General Elections ◽  
United Front ◽  
Oil Company ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Crucial to the new framework's success will be the ongoing overhaul of state-owned oil company Sonangol, alongside an oil price recovery, as well as politically contentious fuel subsidy removals. Impacts Dollar-denominated bonds have recovered somewhat from their April slump, offering partial relief amid the government’s debt crisis. Controversies surrounding former Vice-President Manuel Vicente will weaken his influence at Sonangol, bolstering the new CEO's autonomy. The opposition remains divided, but calls are growing for a united front against the ruling party in the 2022 general elections.

Mexico's shale ambitions will have to wait

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Tight Oil ◽  
Shale Oil ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Growing Crop

Subject Mexico's massive untapped shale oil and gas reserves. Significance Mexico has enough 'tight oil' and gas reserves to make the country energy independent again, according to some estimates. However, finding and developing those reserves will be a long, costly and high-risk endeavour. Unfortunately for Mexico's energy policymakers, the oil price crash has sapped the industry's appetite and ability to take on the challenge. It will be years before Mexico's shale industry regains the momentum that had started to build before the oil industry downturn. Impacts Mexico will grow increasingly reliant on US natural gas imports, providing opportunities for pipeline and other infrastructure builders. Shale development could bring economic development to some of Mexico's poorest regions. A growing crop of domestic oil companies stands to gain from tight oil production.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

New Kenya party may be formidable electoral force

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
National Alliance ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject New political party in Kenya. Significance The two main factions of the ruling Jubilee Alliance have agreed to form a new political party, to be called the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP). President Uhuru Kenyatta's The National Alliance (TNA) and Deputy President William Ruto's United Republican Party (URP) have a collective advantage with regards to election funding and political savvy. The main ethnic groups that support the parties -- the Kikuyu (TNA) and the Kalenjin (URP) -- are two of the most numerous and wealthy communities in the country. If the JAP holds together it will be difficult for the opposition to defeat it in the 2017 general elections. Impacts JAP's formation is part of a wider attempt by Kenyatta and Ruto to boost political stability. A ruling party solidifying the Kikuyu and Kalenjin alliance will strengthen their claims for assuring peace and stability. The government's consolidated power should allow for the policy continuity required to push through major infrastructure projects.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

Rivalries may cap Libya's oil export potential

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Revenue Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Production Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Oil Company

Significance Libya's pre-revolution oil production level of around 1.6 million b/d has been disrupted by conflict since 2011. Impacts Further disputes over oil shipments and revenue management are likely. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the Tobruk administration may also try to instigate new challenges to the National Oil Company. Under present conditions, only minor, place-holding investments in oil and gas will materialise. The GNA's credibility may further weaken.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

There is no easy solution to Cuba’s fuel challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Capacity ◽  
Major Producer

Subject Cuba's energy troubles. Significance With a previously generous Venezuela facing economic crisis and the United States tightening sanctions, Cuba’s ability to augment its limited domestic oil and gas production is severely constrained. It lacks the export earnings to invest in new technologies and power generating capacity that could ease its fuel supply problems. Russia and China have spoken of offering assistance, but neither is inclined to provide handouts in the absence of commercial returns. Impacts Cuba has tried to trade more with Algeria and Angola but remains vulnerable to international oil price shifts. As a major producer of both sugar and biofuels, Brazil could provide a model for Cuba’s biofuel plans. Cubans are resilient and accustomed to hardship; the country’s looming economic troubles are unlikely to trigger serious unrest.

Bosnia’s local election results could be destabilising

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quarter Century ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Local Election ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Banja Luka ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Low turnouts in elections in mid-November and ruling party setbacks suggest popular frustration. A quarter-century after the war, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) is marked by division and dysfunction. Unless a way is found locally or abroad to fix its problems -- and soon -- BiH will slide towards disintegration or even new conflict. Impacts Ruling Bosniak and Bosnian Serb party defeats in Sarajevo and Banja Luka could indicate a shift ahead of 2022 general elections. Change in the White House is expected to bring stronger US involvement in BiH, providing either opportunity or risk. Close EU-US cooperation in the Balkans is a key condition but no guarantee for stabilising BiH and the whole region.

Ethiopia faces risks to peaceful and fair elections

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Risks to Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has announced that general elections will be held on August 29 this year. Although the polls are widely expected to be more competitive and freer than in the past, a combination of logistical challenges, growing insecurity and accusations of unfair practices may undermine the peacefulness and fairness of the elections. Impacts Many parties may be unable to re-register in time to contest the elections, potentially narrowing the crowded electoral field. The government’s strong stance in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam may help the ruling party’s dented reputation. As local polls will not be held yet, the ruling party will continue to control local bodies regardless of the general election outcome.

U.S. oil company stock returns and currency fluctuations

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 974-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Mollick ◽  
Khoa H Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Purpose – The purpose of this is paper is to pay a closer look at the 2008-2009 financial crisis (and its aftermath) and analyzes stock returns of nine major US oil companies as well as the oil and gas sector under daily data from January 1992 to April 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The authors adopt the arbitrage pricing theory model to examine the relationship between stock returns and their influences including oil price return, yield spreads, and US dollar index return. The authors also provide a test for structural changes in each regression model of return series to capture for multiple breaks. To examine the asymmetric effect of oil price returns on stock returns, the authors separate oil price returns series into two series: positive changes in oil price and negative changes in oil price. Findings – The authors find stock returns of oil companies as well as the oil and gas sector are positively affected by oil prices and have stronger effects in the downward direction. Interestingly, The authors find the effects of oil price movements on stock returns increase over time. The authors examine the possibility that investors wishing to hedge against a weakening USD invest in US oil companies and find that more than half of these companies benefit from a weaker USD against the JPY, while all strongly benefit from a weaker USD against major currencies. Originality/value – The authors employ daily data for two-decade period including the last global financial crisis. Due to the long-term period covered in this study, sequential Bai-Perron tests are used to detect structural breaks of stock return series. In addition, the data-dependent procedures result in good specifications throughout with white-noise processes in almost all cases.

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