US Democrats will seek to rebuild from the Senate

Subject Senate Democrats and the post-election party. Significance The 115th Congress will be sworn in on January 3 and President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration will occur on January 20. After bitter internal disputes over the ideological direction of the party and the reasons for Hillary Clinton's shock election loss, the Democratic Party will have to reformulate itself in opposition to the political programme of Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress. The party also will need to resolve questions of leadership, electoral strategy and policy priorities ahead of the 2018 midterm elections and 2020 presidential election. Impacts The record-low number of state-level seats held by Democrats will hinder recruitment of federal candidates with strong local credentials. Senate Democrats are likely to let most Trump appointees through confirmation and attack them once in office. Advocates of environmental and financial regulation from the party's left wing will pressure their centrist leaders.

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-142
Author(s):  
Alicia Kubas

Purpose Since the 2016 presidential election, hyper-partisanship has become a regular facet of the political landscape with Democrats and Republicans in increasing conflict. The purpose of this paper is to determine if perception of government sources related to trust and credibility has changed since the 2016 election and if the experiences and strategies of librarians who teach or consult about government information has changed in response to this environment. Design/methodology/approach A 24-question survey was distributed to garner qualitative and quantitative responses from librarians who teach or consult about government information in an academic environment. A total of 122 responses were used for analysis. Findings Academic librarians are seeing more concern from patrons about disappearing online government information and wider distrust of government information. Librarians also noticed that the political leanings of students color their perspective around government sources and that librarians also need to keep their political beliefs in check. Respondents emphasized a need for more government literacy and information literacy topics when discussing evaluation of government sources. Research limitations/implications The data collection only included responses from academic librarians. Further research could include in-depth interviews and look at experiences in various library types. Originality/value With the timeliness of this topic, there has not been an in-depth investigation into how the Trump administration has changed user trust and perception of government sources from the librarian’s point of view. This paper continues the conversation about how librarians can address the growing distrust of government information and give us insight into the effects of a turbulent political climate on government sources.


Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.


Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.


Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.


Subject The recent presidential election in Mongolia. Significance With the victory of Khaltmaa Battulga in the presidential election on July 7, the Democratic Party (DP) has held onto the presidency. The legislature and cabinet remain in the hands of the rival Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The election of an MPP president would have signalled continuity and stability; a Battulga win introduces uncertainty. Impacts Battulga may push to scale back austerity and provide the public with more immediate benefits from the resources sector. Despite the anti-Chinese sentiment evident during Battulga's election campaign, he is more likely to be pragmatic than confrontational. Battulga may use the presidency's foreign policy powers to reach out to Russia.


Significance The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was ousted in the first round on September 15. The DNT and DPT manifestos concentrate on youth unemployment and public debt. The 2013 elections, which involved debate about Bhutan’s relations with close ally India and China, saw several DNT candidates joining the PDP after the first round. Impacts Polling in the second round will be peaceful, with electoral violence highly unlikely. The new government will come under pressure to curb corruption. The Maldives will favour India over China following Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s surprise win in the presidential election.


Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.


Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.


Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.


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