Trump may trigger Central American trade opportunities

Subject Outlook for Central American trade. Significance The election of Donald Trump as the next US president has created uncertainty over the outlook for trade in Central America. However, the region is open to international trade, and a recent trade deal with South Korea illustrates its attractions as a partner. Impacts The trade accord with South Korea is likely to come into force over the coming year. Increased US protectionism would be felt in Central America. Other Asian countries could show growing interest in negotiating trade deals with Central American countries.

Subject Regional migration issues. Significance Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on October 3 said US President Donald Trump “looks favourably” on his plans to stem northward migration by promoting economic development in Central America. The remarks followed a call between the leaders that Trump described as “great”, with the US president adding that “we will work well together”. Whether such goodwill will last is doubtful, particularly regarding the issue of migration, on which the leaders have thus far taken diametrically opposed stances. Impacts Increased migration from Nicaragua and Venezuela could test stability in Costa Rica and Panama. Global warming will hit Central America hard, with droughts and flooding affecting food security, fuelling migration. Toughened security on the US-Mexico border will make people smuggling highly profitable for crime cartels.


Subject Remittances. Significance Remittances represent a crucial inflow of hard currency for many countries in Latin America. Mexico stands out as the fourth-largest recipient in the world, while in several Central American countries, remittances are even more important with respect to economic variables such as GDP or exports. With the vast majority of the region’s remittance inflows coming from the United States, the election of President Donald Trump in November has raised concerns for many countries whose economies rely heavily on the inflow of expatriate dollars. Impacts Amid low economic growth, remittances will represent an important element to alleviate poverty in Mexico. Any significant disruption to remittance flows would have a severe impact on consumption and GDP growth in Central America. As US unemployment falls, foreign-born workers will see wages go up in sectors with tight labour markets, boosting remittances


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Significance This follows a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Philippine counterpart, Rodrigo Duterte, on November 13 during Trump's visit to Manila for the 40th US-ASEAN Summit. Impacts Manila will warm ties with Washington once more, but also with Beijing and Moscow. The Philippine government will also seek free trade deals (multilateral and bilateral) with other regional powers. US government pressure on Philippine human rights protections will likely be restrained in favour of trade.


Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.


Significance US President Donald Trump has left the Trans-Pacific Partnership and escalated trade frictions with China. The USMCA, by contrast, shows a trade deal renegotiated, the implementation of which will be watched for its implications for other US trade activity, especially with the presidential election coming in November. Impacts COVID-19 disruptions mean some aspects of the USMCA, such as rules of origin, will be delayed. If Trump is re-elected, he will continue his tariff-driven efforts to secure Chinese economic reform for US firms. Biden would aspire to strengthen US-Asian trade ties but would focus first on smoothing trade with existing partners. China and neighbours should assume a Mexican challenge to their production, especially of autos, steel and textiles. Trump will tout the USMCA as evidence his trade reform agenda works.


Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.


Headline CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO/US: Migrant strategies to shift


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 1372-1375
Author(s):  
Md. Habib Alam

The United States of America is a part of the globalization of international trade law. The USA is known as a leading global trader among all nations. The President of the USA plays a vital role in the development of international trade law. On 8 November 2016, Donald Trump was elected as president of the United States of America. Donald Trump engaged in different trade deals and policies with different countries and international institutions. The trade deals and policies are withdrawal from TPP, reshaping NAFTA, reforming WTO, and imposing tariffs on foreign goods. On 8 November 2020, CNN commented, Joe Biden will be the next president of the USA. Many scholars expressed different thoughts relating to the reforming international trade law by Joe Biden. The main aim of Joe Biden will be to remove trade barriers and end artificial trade wars with different foreign nations. My research will suggest how Joe Biden may overcome these issues for the betterment of the international trade law around the world.


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