Iran's Rouhani could take up his mentor’s mantle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Factions

Significance Rafsanjani, who had lost much overt political power over the past decade, was an important behind-the-scenes power broker in a deeply divided political landscape. He supported President Hassan Rouhani and centrist and reformist political factions. He was also an ardent advocate of economic liberalisation and Iranian rapprochement with the West. Impacts Economic benefits from the nuclear deal will be key to Rouhani’s reconnection with his political base. Rafsanjani's death could trigger a hard-line reaction that could boost tensions with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. If 77-year-old Khamenei were also to pass away, regime instability might increase.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

Tunisian labour union may seek direct political power

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Exacerbated by terrorism and political feuding between Islamist and secular parties, economic difficulties have provided the powerful UGTT with an opportunity to exert more influence over politics. How the labour union uses this power will greatly impact Tunisia’s political landscape ahead of and following the 2019 elections. Impacts Persistently high youth unemployment may lead to low electoral participation in 2019 as it did in 2014. Political infighting may scare off potential foreign investors. The prime minister's popularity may suffer ahead of the elections given continued economic woes.

Baku hopes Islamism will buttress Azerbaijani regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
English Language ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
The West ◽  
Double Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Subject Indications from reactions to the Charlie Hebdo incident in Paris of a shift in Azerbaijan's geopolitical orientation. Significance The January 7 terrorist attacks in Paris against the Charlie Hebdo magazine and a Jewish supermarket received international condemnation. While Baku joined international public opinion in denouncing the attacks, official and semi-official outlets variously justified the attacks or claimed Western anger was tantamount to 'double standards'. Among the population, internet reactions echoed similar themes on social media, and religious protesters held rallies against Charlie Hebdo. While Azerbaijan and its regime are typically portrayed as models of absolutist secularism, reactions to the Paris attacks -- and foreign policy shifts in the past year -- indicate that political Islam is becoming an increasingly relevant factor in politics. Impacts The government will continue and probably increase its use of Islamic language and justifications as part of its campaign against the West. Yet at the same time, the authorities will continue to burnish their secular credentials in English-language and international outlets. Azerbaijan-Iran relations will continue in a positive trajectory. The regime will be willing to incorporate elements of Iranian Shia Islamism as a means of buttressing its security.

Tajikistan will try to balance Russia and China

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Important Relationship ◽  
Silk Road Economic Belt ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Ukraine Crisis

Subject Tajikistan's options for joining Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Significance Russia hopes that the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which came into force on January 1, will include Tajikistan. The EEU currently comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May. Moscow is eager to pursue expansion of the EEU as its relations with the West deteriorate as a result of the Ukraine crisis. Russia is also believed to be seeking to put a check on China, whose 'silk road economic belt' will see billions of dollars invested in Central Asia. However, the economic benefits of EEU membership for Tajikistan are debatable and could put at risk its increasingly important relationship with China. Impacts EEU membership risks continuing a trend of significant numbers of Tajikistanis being dependent on working in Russia. EEU success will depend on the extent to which Russia is able to act as a destination for merchandise exports. As Russia's economy slows, the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Tajikistani workers returning home will rise, as will instability risk.

Next-generation Gulf monarchs will set new rules

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Current Line ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Social Liberalism

Significance This brings in different perspectives on issues such as economic diversification, social liberalism, Israel and the role of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Impacts Longstanding fears of family splits over the succession could persist in Kuwait and potentially Saudi Arabia. The GCC will become even less significant, lacking any economic, infrastructural or security role. Large-scale ‘giga-projects’ raise concerns that vanity is outweighing viability. The prospect of receding support from GCC countries could undermine entrenched elites in both the West Bank and Beirut. The upcoming ‘energy transition’ will face the current line-up of rulers with a unprecedented economic crisis in the coming years.

Cultural heritage wars may affect Israeli-Arab ties

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
West Bank ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Peace Accords ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The ‘Abraham Peace Accords’ between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and between Israel and Bahrain, were signed in September, after being brokered by the US Trump administration. Deals with Sudan and Morocco have since followed. Impacts Palestinian complaints will become more pointed as other Arab-Israeli ties strengthen and tourism increases. The Biden administration could engage in more scrutiny of right-wing Israeli claims, especially over the West Bank settlements. As right-wing politicians entrench their dominance, archaeological finds will drive more nationalistic interpretations of the past.

Saudi campaign in Yemen will hinge on local allies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Port City ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The West ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Military Operation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Saudi Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir said that a ten-country coalition was supporting the military operation, code-named 'Storm of Resolve', "to protect and defend the legitimate government" of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Rapid Huthi advances over recent days towards Hadi's seat in the southern port city of Aden prompted him on March 23 to call on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for military intervention. Impacts Yemen will prove the first major leadership test for potential future Saudi king, Defence Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even in a worst case scenario, the conflict is highly unlikely to affect Saudi oil installations. Iran's aid to the Huthis is opportunistic, not strategic; it will not risk re-engagement with the West to expand in Yemen. Sectarian tensions could rise in eastern Saudi Arabia.

Growing environmental crime fuels global instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Crime ◽  
Global Instability ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Impact ◽  
Substantial Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Environmental Programme

Subject Environmental crime and its global impact. Significance A joint Interpol-UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) assessment in June revised dramatically upward the official cost of global environmental crime. The report estimates this cost to have increased 26% to 91-258 billion dollars as of June 2016 from 70-213 billion dollars in 2014. In part this is a correction from previous underestimates, but it also reflects a genuine and substantial growth. Over the past ten years, the turnover of environmental crime has risen by at least 5-7% per year, two to three times faster than global GDP. Impacts Environmental crime will continue to degrade the biosphere, exacerbating climate change and species' extinctions. Such crimes will facilitate the operations of a wide range of dangerous organisations, from terrorists and insurgents to gangsters. The issue will cause increasing tension between the West and those failing to address the problem, such as China.

African authoritarianism likely to rise in 2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Process ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Factions ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Stability

Subject Rising African authorianism Significance Several protest movements have emerged over the past year calling into question the stability of governments in many of sub-Saharan Africa’s electoral-authoritarian regimes -- those states that hold multiparty elections, but in largely undemocratic conditions. Following decades of exclusionary or discriminatory politics, marginalised minorities and political factions are campaigning for a greater share of economic opportunities and political influence in countries as diverse as Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria and Mozambique. Authoritarian governments have tended to respond with repression rather than reform, further undermining their claim to legitimacy. Impacts Opposition parties will find it extremely difficult to gain ground electorally, enabling incumbents to retain control of the policy process. Rising instability and repression will undermine the willingness of international donors to provide aid, compounding economic difficulties. Prolonged political instability in states such as Ethiopia will undermine the attraction of the so-called "Singapore model" in Africa.

China’s new blacklist is a threat to foreign firms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Export Control ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
The West ◽  
Chinese Enterprises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Do So

Subject China's plan to blacklist foreign firms for denying supplies to Chinese customers. Significance China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is responding to US export controls by creating a new tool to punish foreign businesses that curtail supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons: the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). China has not shied away from targeting foreign businesses for political reasons in the past. The UEL gives it a much more powerful tool to do so. Impacts The United States is the target for now, but once in place the UEL can easily be used against other countries. An export control bill now in the works will hasten the decoupling of China and the West. Foreign firms in sensitive sectors may opt to curtail their presence in China preventatively, or curry greater favour with Beijing.

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