Saudi campaign in Yemen will hinge on local allies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Port City ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The West ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Military Operation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Saudi Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir said that a ten-country coalition was supporting the military operation, code-named 'Storm of Resolve', "to protect and defend the legitimate government" of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Rapid Huthi advances over recent days towards Hadi's seat in the southern port city of Aden prompted him on March 23 to call on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for military intervention. Impacts Yemen will prove the first major leadership test for potential future Saudi king, Defence Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even in a worst case scenario, the conflict is highly unlikely to affect Saudi oil installations. Iran's aid to the Huthis is opportunistic, not strategic; it will not risk re-engagement with the West to expand in Yemen. Sectarian tensions could rise in eastern Saudi Arabia.

Gulf to look beyond Pakistan as insecurity rises

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Outlook for Pakistan-Gulf relations. Significance Pakistan's parliament last month voted against joining the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. Since then Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif have visited Riyadh to clarify the decision, reassuring Saudi Arabia of Pakistan's support in case of any external aggression against the kingdom. The Yemen intervention has exposed some faultlines in the relationship between the two allies, as well as in Pakistan's ties with other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), some of whom -- most notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- described Pakistan's decision as "dangerous and unexpected". Impacts Pakistan will lose leverage in GCC states as the latter opt to provide aid via multilateral, international mechanisms. Islamabad will be reluctant to share nuclear technology with GCC states -- primarily for fear of provoking Washington. China will increasingly become Pakistan's preferred diplomatic and economic partner, despite a degree of mutual suspicion.

Huthi crisis will weaken central government in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Failed State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Wide Scale

Significance The situation in Yemen has deteriorated rapidly after January's takeover of central government by the northern rebel group Ansar Allah, also known as the Huthi movement, and the subsequent resignations of Hadi and Bahah. With tribes and local groups in Sunni-majority areas preparing to resist the Huthi coup, Yemen faces a high risk of wide-scale conflict that could lead towards civil war and failed state status. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, violence would escalate into civil war that assumes a sectarian character and draws in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaida will seek to capitalise on the vacuum, increasing attacks on the Huthis to position itself as the defender of Sunni Islam. The Southern Movement would push for secession while other regions could also try to break from Sana'a's control. Foreign powers have limited leverage influence over the Huthis and thus also over the outcome of negotiations. The Huthis may moderate their position due to Yemen's fragile economy, which depends on substantial international support.

Road to default: Tracoma holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt securities (BaIDS)

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
A.M. Hafizi ◽  
Shahida Shahimi ◽  
Mohd Hafizuddin Syah Bangaan Abdullah ◽  
M. Badrul Hakimi Daud
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analytical Skills

Subject area Islamic Finance and Investment Study level/applicability Level of program/audience: Advanced undergraduate and postgraduate. Courses Intermediate and Advanced Finance, Economics, Islamic Economics & Finance, Islamic Banking & Finance, Islamic Capital Market and other relevant courses. Specifictopics/syllabus Capital markets instruments, conventional or Islamic. Case overview This case focuses on Tracoma Holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt Securities (BaIDS) amounting to RM 100 million which was issued by Tracoma Holding Berhad in 2005. It was the first issuance of a sukuk (Islamic debt securities or bond) by the company. The proceeds were used to finance its growth and to repay existing bank borrowings and capital requirements. This case is interesting, as it allows students to study the bai bithaman ajil sukuk structure and issuance process in the Malaysian capital market. It also provides basic financial transaction and credit rating of sukuk which requires analytical skills. Being a debt-based facility, the sukuk was subjected to credit rating evaluation by the MARC, the rating agency appointed by the company. Further downgrading of the sukuk meant it would lead to the worst-case scenario. Some actions needed to be taken to solve this issue; therefore, the CFO suggested an urgent meeting with the sukuk holders. Expected learning outcomes The students should be able to: understand the issuance process and the principle of BBA (bai bithamin ajil) in sukuk structure; understand reason(s) methods of fund raising by firm and the allocations of fund; understand the sukuk default issue; analyze the reasons for sukuk default; understand the importance of debt securities credit ratings; and identify investors' protection in the case of sukuk default. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.

scholarly journals Worst-case analysis of electronic circuits based on an analytic forward solver approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 1655-1666
Author(s):  
Mario Schenk ◽  
Annette Muetze ◽  
Klaus Krischan ◽  
Christian Magele
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Quadratic Program ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
State Equations ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sqp Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the worst-case behavior of a given electronic circuit by varying the values of the components in a meaningful way in order not to exceed pre-defined currents or voltages limits during a transient operation. Design/methodology/approach An analytic formulation is used to identify the time-dependent solution of voltages or currents using proper state equations in closed form. Circuits with linear elements can be described by a system of differential equations, while circuits composing nonlinear elements are described by piecewise-linear models. A sequential quadratic program (SQP) is used to find the worst-case scenario. Findings It is found that the worst-case scenario can be obtained with as few solutions to the forward problem as possible by applying an SQP method. Originality/value The SQP method in combination with the analytic forward solver approach shows that the worst-case limit converges in a few steps even if the worst-case limit is not on the boundary of the parameters.

Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
The Military ◽  
Democratic Norms

Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.

Iran's Rouhani could take up his mentor’s mantle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Factions

Significance Rafsanjani, who had lost much overt political power over the past decade, was an important behind-the-scenes power broker in a deeply divided political landscape. He supported President Hassan Rouhani and centrist and reformist political factions. He was also an ardent advocate of economic liberalisation and Iranian rapprochement with the West. Impacts Economic benefits from the nuclear deal will be key to Rouhani’s reconnection with his political base. Rafsanjani's death could trigger a hard-line reaction that could boost tensions with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. If 77-year-old Khamenei were also to pass away, regime instability might increase.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Burundi faces complex succession battle

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Major Theme ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Constitutional Revision

Subject Succession politics ahead of Burundi's 2020 election. Significance With national elections approaching in May 2020 -- the first since President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a controversial third term in 2015, plunging the country into crisis -- the main question facing Burundi is whether he will insist on a fourth mandate (made possible by a 2018 constitutional revision) or accept someone else as his party’s presidential candidate. Nkurunziza is giving away few clues, but whichever way he turns will be fraught with difficulties. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, the succession battle could lead to violence and political assassinations. Ethnicity has gradually disappeared as a major theme in Burundian politics but could resurface amid rising political polarisation. The precarious political climate around the election will increase the risks of regional spillover.

scholarly journals Optimization and Evaluation of Piperacillin-Tobramycin Combination Dosage Regimens againstPseudomonas aeruginosafor Patients with Altered Pharmacokinetics via the Hollow-Fiber Infection Model and Mechanism-Based Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajbharan Yadav ◽  
Kate E. Rogers ◽  
Phillip J. Bergen ◽  
Jürgen B. Bulitta ◽  
Carl M. J. Kirkpatrick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Hollow Fiber ◽  
Critically Ill Patient ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Bacterial Killing ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dosage Regimens ◽  
Time Kill

ABSTRACTAugmented renal clearance (ARC) in critically ill patients can result in suboptimal drug exposures and treatment failure. Combination dosage regimens accounting for ARC have never been optimized and evaluated againstPseudomonas aeruginosaby use of the hollow-fiber infection model (HFIM). Using aP. aeruginosaisolate from a critically ill patient and static-concentration time-kill experiments (SCTKs), we studied clinically relevant piperacillin and tobramycin concentrations, alone and in combinations, against two inocula (105.8and 107.6CFU/ml) over 72 h. We subsequently evaluated the effects of optimized piperacillin (4 g every 4 h [q4h], given as 0.5-h infusions) plus tobramycin (5 mg/kg of body weight q24h, 7 mg/kg q24h, or 10 mg/kg q48h, given as 0.5-h infusions) regimens on killing and regrowth in the HFIM, simulating a creatinine clearance of 250 ml/min. Mechanism-based modeling was performed in S-ADAPT. In SCTKs, piperacillin plus tobramycin (except combinations with 8 mg/liter tobramycin and against the low inoculum) achieved synergistic killing (≥2 log10versus the most active monotherapy at 48 h and 72 h) and prevented regrowth. Piperacillin monotherapy (4 g q4h) in the HFIM provided 2.4-log10initial killing followed by regrowth at 24 h and resistance emergence. Tobramycin monotherapies displayed rapid initial killing (≥5 log10at 13 h) followed by extensive regrowth. As predicted by mechanism-based modeling, the piperacillin plus tobramycin dosage regimens were synergistic and provided ≥5-log10killing with resistance suppression over 8 days in the HFIM. Optimized piperacillin-tobramycin regimens provided significant bacterial killing and suppressed resistance emergence. These regimens appear to be highly promising for effective and early treatment, even in the near-worst-case scenario of ARC.

Divisions will hamper Saudi regional security alliance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Traditional Leadership ◽  
Perceived Security ◽  
The Face

Subject Saudi Arabia's Sunni Arab alliance. Significance King Salman bin Abd-al-Aziz of Saudi Arabia held talks in Riyadh with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on March 1. It was the latest in a series of meetings the king has had with the leaders of the kingdom's main Arab allies -- the five other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), plus Jordan. Since coming to power in January King Salman has prioritised efforts to resolve differences among some of those allies and strengthen coordination in the face of perceived security challenges emanating from the conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, and from Iranian influence in the region. The new king appears to be seeking to put his stamp on the monarchy by restoring Saudi Arabia's traditional leadership of regional policy and security. Impacts The fragile truce between Cairo and Doha is likely to break down. Prospects have improved for greater regional cooperation to help the mainstream Syrian opposition. Saudi proxy intervention in Yemen is likely to escalate, complicating efforts to resolve the stand-off with the Huthis. The UAE and Egypt will step up intervention via proxies in Libya.

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