US protectionism would raise trade costs worldwide

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Commerce Department ◽  
Firing Line

Subject Exposure to US final demand. Significance The Commerce Department reported on March 7 that the US goods trade deficit widened to 69.7 billion dollars in January after a five-year high of 4% of GDP last year. The new administration has threatened to build a wall along the Mexican border, impose punitive tariffs on countries it runs a goods deficit with and label China a currency manipulator. Other countries also rely on US demand -- through goods and services trade, investment and remittances. Impacts In the unlikely event that Trump follows through on all his most extreme trade threats, the world could plunge into recession. Evidence does not support the new administration's view that free trade has damaged the US economy and the fortunes of its workforce. The WTO is reviewing several cases the previous US administration began against China -- extreme escalation could trigger US WTO withdrawal. Germany is the only G7 country that the United States runs both a goods and services trade deficit with, placing it in the firing line.

US financial flows are as important to growth as trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Transactions

Subject Exploring the US current account beyond goods trade. Significance The US administration is focusing on the goods trade deficit to measure how well the country is doing in international transactions and to determine foreign economic policy. However, this ignores the many other transactions that cross the nation’s borders. For example, the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Moreover, trade is just one part of the current account, which also includes investment income and labour compensation. Financial flows are also important, dominating advanced countries international transactions since the 1980s and driving US exchange rates, trade balances and national savings. Impacts A permanently higher dollar due to the desire of investors to buy US assets will keep the US goods balance in deficit despite trade policy. The US economy is services-driven -- trade in services will grow as a share of US international transactions. An undue focus on manufacturing and goods trade places the US economy at risk of higher costs and slower productivity gains and GDP growth. To meet and diversify demand to invest in the United States, new safe assets including infrastructure bonds may emerge to fund projects.

Added US sanctions on Syria may prove self-defeating

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
Economic Tools

Significance This comes as the US Congress is finalising a bill, the Caesar Act, that would substantially increase the sanctions pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As Washington’s military footprint in the Syrian theatre shrinks, it is reprioritising the use of economic tools. Impacts With no exposure to the United States, Iranian and Russian companies doing business with Syria will not be significantly affected. The main losers could be US partners, who had hoped that a Syrian recovery would aid their own economies and regional integration. Black market activity may proliferate in the Levant as criminal groups help establish alternative mechanisms to supply goods and services. Sanctions will make life more difficult for the average Syrian, restricting economic growth and reconstruction.

EU-US economic ties will survive testing US policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Affiliates ◽  
Commission President ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-US ties. Significance Attracting the ire of US President Donald Trump, the US goods trade deficit with the EU has widened since 2009. While Trump blames the imbalance on the EU charging higher tariffs on its US imports than the United States charges on its EU imports, the deficit is instead driven by US demand. Most US-EU trade is between foreign affiliates and the declaration between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in late July reaffirmed the close economic ties between the two blocs. Impacts The prospects for US exports of LNG to the EU will be higher if Chinese retaliatory restrictions remain in place. The US farm lobby will push for agriculture to be covered in the trade negotiations. The negotiations are unlikely to lead to a return to a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership-type deal. Renegotiating US-EU goods trade tariffs will necessarily involve other chapters including services or foreign investment. Escalating trade tariffs would damage the EU but would damage the United States more owing to the size of US-EU cross-border investments.

US dock strike unlikely to be repeated

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Low Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Stoppage ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Complete Work ◽  
The Us

Significance The slowdown led to extreme backlogs at the ports, which are responsible for about 45.0% of containerised cargo in the United States and goods representing 12.5% of GDP. Importers and exporters are concerned that the tactic of an economically-damaging slowdown or complete work stoppage may be repeated at the end of the contract, or at ports on the East or Gulf Coasts. Impacts The economic impact of the slowdown is calculated to have cost GDP one percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2014. State actions against unions will provide case studies for examining their impact on wage levels. The segmentation of the US economy has made low-income workers suited for greater unionisation. However, they are also most vulnerable to employer action and less able to withstand strikes.

US entrepreneurship may be on the rebound

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Firm Creation ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Business Dynamics ◽  
New Firm ◽  
New Firm Creation ◽  
Start Ups

Subject Entrepreneurialism and dynamism in the US economy. Significance Entrepreneurship is a key feature of the US economy, and traditionally drives its innovation and growth. However, the Census Bureau's most recent report on business dynamics has shown a depressed state of entrepreneurship in the United States. New firm creation is down significantly compared to before the 2007-09 recession. Trends since the 1970s indicate that this may be a structural, rather than simply cyclical, issue. Impacts Rising voluntary job-quit rates may presage growth in new firm creation. A slowing global economy may blunt the edge that large firms receive from their ties to overseas market. An emphasis on customisation and service in manufacturing could permit easier entry for start-ups.

Mexico-US NAFTA deal piles pressure on Canada

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Global Stock

Significance Global stock markets rose to a six-month high following the announcement, which does not yet include Canada. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland cut short a tour of Europe and flew to the United States yesterday to attend urgent trade negotiations in Washington. Impacts Trump's policies will not reduce the US trade deficit in the near future, but the deal gives him a key political win ahead of the midterms. Canada may sacrifice some dairy sector protections in exchange for salvaging NAFTA's dispute resolution mechanism. The adjustment period allowed to Mexican automakers will delay any negative impact on economic growth for years.

Prospects for the US economy in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2017. Significance In recent years, the United States has become accustomed to sub-par 2% GDP growth and sustained low inflation. However, following disappointing performance in 2016, the US economy is poised for a moderate rebound in growth in 2017.

Latin America remittances will rise despite obstacles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Caribbean

Subject Remittances to Latin America. Significance Family remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) totalled 80 billion dollars in 2017, up from 74 billion in 2016. The record amount was mainly due to a robust economy and increasing employment opportunities in the United States. Impacts The US economy will again drive remittances growth this year, but immigration crackdowns could create downside risks. The slow reduction in sending costs will limit the development impact of remittances in LAC and other developing nations. So-called de-risking and regulatory burdens are high obstacles to remittances growth.

scholarly journals The Deterioration of Reproduction Conditions in the U.S. Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-150
Author(s):  
V. S. VASILIEV
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Returns ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
American Society

In the article the reasons for the deceleration of the average annual rates of economic growth of the United States are analyzed.  The rates declined in one and the half decade of the XXI century twice in comparison with the last three decades of the  twentieth century. Leading American economists and analysts  associated the main cause of the slowdown in economic growth with  a double drop in the rate of total factor productivity (TFP). This  indicator reflects the synergistic effects of the interaction of physical  and human capitals in the production process. The gradual decrease in the synergetic value of the interaction of labor and  capital in the US economy, other things being equal, also means a  decrease in the contribution of sinergetic factor to the rates of  economic growth and a greater priority in the state socio-economic policy of the capital factor in economic development. In  turn, the increasing role of capital in the economic development of  the US turns around with a sharp increase in inequality in income  distribution among different social strata of American society,  resulting in the bulk of the increase in economic production to  primarily 20% of the wealthiest layers of American society. The  growth of injustice in the distribution of goods and services in recent  decades in the United States was due to the lack of purposeful state  policy of the income redistribution. me. The absence of such a policy  stemmed from a growing crisis of most components of the  reproductive logistics of the American economy. In the end, general  conclusion is that the trend towards long-term decline in economic  growth will continue in the future because the US will be forced to invest trillions of dollars for infrastructure modernization in the  economy, which will not bring back quick economic returns in the short and possibly medium term.

scholarly journals US Manufacturing: Understanding Its Past and Its Potential Future

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Neil Baily ◽  
Barry P. Bosworth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Absolute Level ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

The development of the US manufacturing sector over the last half-century displays two striking and somewhat contradictory features: 1) the growth of real output in the US manufacturing sector, measured by real value added, has equaled or exceeded that of total GDP, keeping the manufacturing share of the economy constant in price-adjusted terms; and 2) there is a long-standing decline in the share of total employment attributable to manufacturing. The persistence of these trends seems inconsistent with stories of a recent or sudden crisis in the US manufacturing sector. After all, as recently as 2010, the United States had the world's largest manufacturing sector measured by its valued-added, and while it has now been surpassed by China, the United States remains a very large manufacturer. On the other hand, there are some potential causes for concern. First, though manufacturing's output share of GDP has remained stable over 50 years, and manufacturing retains a reputation as a sector of rapid productivity improvements, this is largely due to the spectacular performance of one subsector of manufacturing: computers and electronics. Second, recently there has been a large drop in the absolute level of manufacturing employment that many find alarming. Third, the US manufacturing sector runs an enormous trade deficit, equaling $460 billion in 2012, which is also very concentrated in trade with Asia. Finally, we consider the future evolution of the manufacturing sector and its importance for the US economy. Many of the largest US corporations continue to shift their production facilities overseas. It is important to understand why the United States is not perceived to be an attractive base for their production.

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