Added US sanctions on Syria may prove self-defeating

Significance This comes as the US Congress is finalising a bill, the Caesar Act, that would substantially increase the sanctions pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As Washington’s military footprint in the Syrian theatre shrinks, it is reprioritising the use of economic tools. Impacts With no exposure to the United States, Iranian and Russian companies doing business with Syria will not be significantly affected. The main losers could be US partners, who had hoped that a Syrian recovery would aid their own economies and regional integration. Black market activity may proliferate in the Levant as criminal groups help establish alternative mechanisms to supply goods and services. Sanctions will make life more difficult for the average Syrian, restricting economic growth and reconstruction.

Subject Exposure to US final demand. Significance The Commerce Department reported on March 7 that the US goods trade deficit widened to 69.7 billion dollars in January after a five-year high of 4% of GDP last year. The new administration has threatened to build a wall along the Mexican border, impose punitive tariffs on countries it runs a goods deficit with and label China a currency manipulator. Other countries also rely on US demand -- through goods and services trade, investment and remittances. Impacts In the unlikely event that Trump follows through on all his most extreme trade threats, the world could plunge into recession. Evidence does not support the new administration's view that free trade has damaged the US economy and the fortunes of its workforce. The WTO is reviewing several cases the previous US administration began against China -- extreme escalation could trigger US WTO withdrawal. Germany is the only G7 country that the United States runs both a goods and services trade deficit with, placing it in the firing line.


Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.


Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.


Author(s):  
V. S. VASILIEV

In the article the reasons for the deceleration of the average annual rates of economic growth of the United States are analyzed.  The rates declined in one and the half decade of the XXI century twice in comparison with the last three decades of the  twentieth century. Leading American economists and analysts  associated the main cause of the slowdown in economic growth with  a double drop in the rate of total factor productivity (TFP). This  indicator reflects the synergistic effects of the interaction of physical  and human capitals in the production process. The gradual decrease in the synergetic value of the interaction of labor and  capital in the US economy, other things being equal, also means a  decrease in the contribution of sinergetic factor to the rates of  economic growth and a greater priority in the state socio-economic policy of the capital factor in economic development. In  turn, the increasing role of capital in the economic development of  the US turns around with a sharp increase in inequality in income  distribution among different social strata of American society,  resulting in the bulk of the increase in economic production to  primarily 20% of the wealthiest layers of American society. The  growth of injustice in the distribution of goods and services in recent  decades in the United States was due to the lack of purposeful state  policy of the income redistribution. me. The absence of such a policy  stemmed from a growing crisis of most components of the  reproductive logistics of the American economy. In the end, general  conclusion is that the trend towards long-term decline in economic  growth will continue in the future because the US will be forced to invest trillions of dollars for infrastructure modernization in the  economy, which will not bring back quick economic returns in the short and possibly medium term.


Significance Representing a victory for international diplomacy, the deal promises to resolve a 13-year stand-off between Iran and the West, and pave the way to Iran's reintegration into the international community and economy. However, it must first receive Iranian government approval, and pass review in the US Congress, where Republicans are gearing up to oppose it. Impacts Iranian hardliners are unlikely to scuttle the settlement as long as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei maintains his support for it. President Hassan Rouhani and his centrist-reformist allies will be strengthened politically against the hardliners. The deal will exacerbate tensions between the United States and key regional allies, Israel and the Gulf Arab states. Detente with Washington will be limited by hardliners on both sides, and by Iran's unstinting support for its regional proxies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Casarões

The institutional framework of Latin American integration saw a period of intense transformation in the 2000s, with the death of the ambitious project of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), spearheaded by the United States, and the birth of two new institutions, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). This article offers a historical reconstruction of regional integration structures in the 2000s, with emphasis on the fault lines between Brazil, Venezuela and the US, and how they have shaped the institutional order across the hemisphere. We argue that the shaping of UNASUR and CELAC, launched respectively in 2007 and 2010, is the outcome of three complex processes: (1) Brazil’s struggle to strengthen Mercosur by acting more decisively as a regional paymaster; (2) Washington’s selective engagement with some key regional players, notably Colombia, and (3) Venezuela’s construction of an alternative integration model through the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) and oil diplomacy. If UNASUR corresponded to Brazil’s strategy to neutralize the growing role of Caracas in South America and to break apart the emerging alliance between Venezuela, Argentina, and Bolivia, CELAC was at the same time a means to keep the US away from regional decisions, and to weaken the Caracas-Havana axis that sustained ALBA.


Author(s):  
Halyna Shchyhelska

2018 marks the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of Ukrainian independence. OnJanuary 22, 1918, the Ukrainian People’s Republic proclaimed its independence by adopting the IV Universal of the Ukrainian Central Rada, although this significant event was «wiped out» from the public consciousness on the territory of Ukraine during the years of the Soviet totalitarian regime. At the same time, January 22 was a crucial event for the Ukrainian diaspora in the USA. This article examines how American Ukrainians interacted with the USA Government institutions regarding the celebration and recognition of the Ukrainian Independence day on January 22. The attention is focused on the activities of ethnic Ukrainians in the United States, directed at the organization of the special celebration of the Ukrainian Independence anniversaries in the US Congress and cities. Drawing from the diaspora press and Congressional Records, this article argues that many members of Congress participated in the observed celebration and expressed kind feelings to the Ukrainian people, recognised their fight for freedom, during the House of Representatives and Senate sessions. Several Congressmen submitted the resolutions in the US Congress urging the President of United States to designate January 22 as «Ukrainian lndependence Day». January 22 was proclaimed Ukrainian Day by the governors of fifteen States and mayors of many cities. Keywords: January 22, Ukrainian independence day, Ukrainian diaspora, USA, interaction, Congress


Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisham Said ◽  
Aishwarya Mali ◽  
Ajay Deshmukh

PurposeConstruction trade unions have been a vital force in improving the job standards and wellbeing of trade workers. However, the union membership in the construction industry has dropped by half between 1983 and 2017. The objective of this study is to identify and assess the controlling factors of construction electrical trade unionization in the United States.Design/methodology/approachThe study involved four main steps. Literature review and industry townhall meetings were conducted to identify the electrical trade unionization factors. A new unionization trend metric was developed using available union market share data to quantify the growth and decline of local unions. Mixed-mode surveying was used to collect questionnaire and interview data on the unionization factors in different local units of the electrical trade union. Finally, the survey data from the questionnaire and interviews were merged and their correlation with the unionization trend data was assessed.FindingsThe study found that the unionization of this specialty trade is dependent on increasing the crew ratio, expanding the non-apprenticeship union membership program, organizing larger contractors, and continuing the union focus on public and heavy industrial projects.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the construction management body of knowledge by providing a data-driven industry-wide assessment of the factors that affect electrical construction unionization. The study advances the understanding of construction trade unions by narrowing the theory-practice knowledge gap, illustrating the use of macro quantitative empirical research methods, and developing a new unionization trend metric.


Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.


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