Philippines China pivot to come under rising pressure

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
To Come ◽  
Policy Problems

Significance This, along with the reported presence of Chinese survey vessels at Benham Rise, is undercutting Duterte’s foreign policy pivot towards China. Moreover, the Benham incursions underline communication and policy problems within Duterte’s administration. Impacts Duterte’s foreign policy shift towards China will come under increasing domestic pressure. Dealing with China will be harder until a new Philippine foreign secretary is appointed and gains experience. Continued Chinese assertiveness could see Duterte concede that he needs closer ties with Washington. The risk of Duterte being impeached over China’s actions in Philippine waters is currently negligible.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Thai leader will battle hard to secure his position

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
To Come

Significance Rebooting the economy is just one challenge facing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. The junta leader-turned-civilian premier continues to come under pressure from a pro-democracy protest movement and faces tough choices on foreign policy. Impacts Bangkok will come under increasing external pressure to allow humanitarian aid to flow from Thailand into Myanmar. Prayut will likely cut ties with the ruling Phalang Pracharat Party if he brings forward the elections. Calls for reform of the political system will persist despite the increasingly severe clampdown on demonstrators by the authorities.

Foreign policy shift will be limited in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Subject Foreign policy in the Michel Temer government. Significance New Foreign Minister Jose Serra seeks to signal a radical departure from policy under the centre-left governments of suspended President Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nowhere is this more visible than in trade, where the Foreign Ministry has taken over policy responsibility from the Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade. The governing idea is that Brazil should abandon its focus on multilateral negotiations under the WTO framework and embrace regional trade deals from which it has largely abstained. Impacts As a political 'heavyweight', Serra boosts the role of the Foreign Ministry in the government. His apparent ambition to use the ministry as a launching pad for a 2018 presidential bid will not necessarily undermine his performance. However, it will force him to show significant results quickly.

No foreign policy shift on the cards in Argentina

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shift

Headline ARGENTINA: No foreign policy shift on the cards

Biden's Africa team will try to hold a steady course

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
War On Terror ◽  
Democracy Promotion ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
To Come ◽  
Trade Promotion

Significance Crisis management, trade promotion, counterterrorism and development efforts are likely to continue, together with democracy promotion initiatives in some countries. Substantial continuity in the relevant committees suggests some keen congressional interest in Africa, but this is likely to come from familiar faces. Impacts The Africa team is highly competent but somewhat risk-averse and may prioritise bolstering stability over encouraging change. It appears unlikely that Africa will move significantly up the ladder of foreign policy issues. Career diplomats whose major postings occurred during the 'War on Terror' may be relatively sympathetic to AFRICOM’s priorities.

‘Groupthink’ will damage Turkish foreign policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Air Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turkish Foreign Policy ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
The Core ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
To Come

Significance Sanctions are triggered under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) by Turkey’s acquisition of two Russian S-400 air defence systems. Russia began delivering the S-400s on July 12. Washington has said taking delivery of the S-400s, or failing to cancel the agreement with Russia by July 31, will result in Turkey being automatically prevented from buying 100 F-35 stealth fighters that were due to form the core of its air power capabilities for decades to come. Impacts The crisis with Washington will inflict further damage on the Turkish economy and lead to another currency depreciation. There may be other US restrictions on defence sales, including on spare parts for other US-made assets in Turkey’s inventory. The reassertion of regime control over Idlib will trigger another mass flight of non-combatants towards the Turkish border.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

Volatility discovery in cryptocurrency markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimpfl ◽  
Dalia Elshiaty
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Discrete Version ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Information Shares ◽  
The Common ◽  
To Come

PurposeCryptocurrency markets are notoriously noisy, but not all markets might behave in the exact same way. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate which one of the cryptocurrency markets contributes the most to the common volatility component inherent in the market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper extracts each of the cryptocurrency's markets' latent volatility using a stochastic volatility model and, subsequently, models their dynamics in a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The authors use the refinement of Lien and Shrestha (2009, J. Futures Mark) to come up with unique Hasbrouck (1995, J. Finance) information shares.FindingsThe authors’ findings indicate that Bitfinex is the leading market for Bitcoin and Ripple, while Bitstamp dominates for Ethereum and Litecoin. Based on the dominant market for each cryptocurrency, the authors find that the volatility of Bitcoin explains most of the volatility among the different cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ findings are limited by the availability of the cryptocurrency data. Apart from Bitcoin, the data series for the other cryptocurrencies are not long enough to ensure the precision of the authors’ estimates.Originality/valueTo date, only price discovery in cryptocurrencies has been studied and identified. This paper extends the current literature into the realm of volatility discovery. In addition, the authors propose a discrete version for the evolution of a markets fundamental volatility, extending the work of Dias et al. (2018).

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