Thai leader will battle hard to secure his position

Significance Rebooting the economy is just one challenge facing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. The junta leader-turned-civilian premier continues to come under pressure from a pro-democracy protest movement and faces tough choices on foreign policy. Impacts Bangkok will come under increasing external pressure to allow humanitarian aid to flow from Thailand into Myanmar. Prayut will likely cut ties with the ruling Phalang Pracharat Party if he brings forward the elections. Calls for reform of the political system will persist despite the increasingly severe clampdown on demonstrators by the authorities.

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Significance The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the functioning of the political system, entrenching the power of the ruling Fidesz party and weakening the opposition. Impacts Fidesz will renew its strong majority in the 2018 elections and further consolidate its power in years to come. Member states are unlikely to agree on the deep reform of EU rule of law procedures that would allow a systematic response. Neighbouring states and candidate countries are likely to drift increasingly away from the liberal model.


Significance Seven months after a general election, the country remains without a government amid a dispute between Hezbollah, a Shia group, and the Sunni Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri. Yet the government formation crisis is not only a product of Sunni-Shia tensions in the region; it stems equally from deep schisms in the Christian community. Impacts Continued confrontation will keep Christians divided and weak in the political system. If Aoun is incapacitated, the interim government would disagree over the process to replace him, triggering a much deeper governing crisis. If Washington implements a full range of sanctions against Hezbollah-linked activities, the financial system would threaten to collapse.


Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Dung ◽  
Giang Khac Binh

As developing programs is the core in fostering knowledge on ethnic work for cadres and civil servants under Decision No. 402/QD-TTg dated 14/3/2016 of the Prime Minister, it is urgent to build training program on ethnic minority affairs for 04 target groups in the political system from central to local by 2020 with a vision to 2030. The article highlighted basic issues of practical basis to design training program of ethnic minority affairs in the past years; suggested solutions to build the training programs in integration and globalization period.


2020 ◽  
pp. 74-86
Author(s):  
Alexandra Arkhangelskaya

The history of the formation of South Africa as a single state is closely intertwined with events of international scale, which have accordingly influenced the definition and development of the main characteristics of the foreign policy of the emerging state. The Anglo-Boer wars and a number of other political and economic events led to the creation of the Union of South Africa under the protectorate of the British Empire in 1910. The political and economic evolution of the Union of South Africa has some specific features arising from specific historical conditions. The colonization of South Africa took place primarily due to the relocation of Dutch and English people who were mainly engaged in business activities (trade, mining, agriculture, etc.). Connected by many economic and financial threads with the elite of the countries from which the settlers left, the local elite began to develop production in the region at an accelerated pace. South Africa’s favorable climate and natural resources have made it a hub for foreign and local capital throughout the African continent. The geostrategic position is of particular importance for foreign policy in South Africa, which in many ways predetermined a great interest and was one of the fundamental factors of international involvement in the development of the region. The role of Jan Smuts, who served as Prime Minister of the Union of South Africa from 1919 to 1924 and from 1939 to 1948, was particularly prominent in the implementation of the foreign and domestic policy of the Union of South Africa in the focus period of this study. The main purpose of this article is to study the process of forming the mechanisms of the foreign policy of the Union of South Africa and the development of its diplomatic network in the period from 1910 to 1948.


Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.


Significance If the referendum passes, it will lead to significant changes to the political system, including new executive posts, the devolution of more national revenues to county governments and measures to ensure more women are elected to parliament. Impacts Fully implementing the BBI’s wide-ranging reforms may take years, and if mishandled could delay the 2022 elections. The proposals will significantly increase the cost of government, which in turn will exacerbate the shrinking fiscal space. An enlarged executive encompassing a broader range of leaders may boost political stability, but it will likely also aggravate graft.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Vauleon

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to focus on Rousseau's three major works: the epistolary novel Julia. Or, The New Eloisa, one of the eighteenth century's best sellers, the political essay The Social Contract, and the pedagogical treatise Emile: or On Education. It seeks to explore the innovative management theories Rousseau develops as he embarks in the simultaneous composition of these three major works, particularly as he conceptualizes his ideal society and envisions a brand new political system, one that would take into account the natural state of humankind in order to socialize them more efficiently. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores Rousseau's solution to these obstacles, and examines his understanding of censorship, as well as the surreptitious control of people's values, tastes, and aspirations. His vision of humanity is very similar to that of “a machine to be put together by skillful devices”, assuming “that the materials of which it is composed are colorless and lifeless”. Findings – The conclusions reached in this paper hinge upon, in significant part, Rousseau's approach to management science, and the individual's subjection to authority, as well as the overarching necessity for any form of power to be imperceptible. Originality/value – The paper shows that in Rousseau's mind, people are mere pawns on the political chessboard, “to be arranged by the fancy of the legislator.”


Subject The outlook for Indian naval engagement with South-east Asian countries and ASEAN. Significance At the ASEAN summit in mid-November, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlined India's 'Look East' policy, pledging to cultivate diplomatic, economic and security relationships with South-east Asia. One manifestation of Delhi's willingness to undertake a more strategic regional role is the Indian navy's growing portfolio of partnerships with South-east Asian navies. Amid concerns over China's maritime assertiveness, India's navy has been welcomed in the region as a security partner. Impacts India will avoid South-east Asian undertakings that may provoke China. Delhi will need to define 'Look East' policies concretely to convince South-east Asia fully of Indian strategic utility. Modi will expand bilateral naval exercises, humanitarian aid and counter-piracy/smuggling efforts in South-east Asia.


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