Prospects for fossil fuels to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Global Stock

Subject Prospects for fossil fuels to end-2017. Significance Despite the recently renewed OPEC agreement to cut output, crude oil prices continue to hover around 50 dollars per barrel, constrained by still-high global stock levels. The oversupply in gas markets has taken longer to emerge although gas looks on course to out-compete coal in many markets.

Prospects for fossil fuels to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Subject Prospects for fossil fuels to end-2016. Significance Crude oil prices are rising, though for how far and how long remain uncertain. The recent OPEC meeting clarified little other than Saudi Arabia and OPEC have a limited willingness to influence prices. Meanwhile, gas and coal producers are grappling with lower prices and oversupply.

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Causal Path

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

Iran nuclear deal could test European unity

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
National Security ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
European Unity ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trading Partners

Significance The recent appointments of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton, both critics of the deal, could contribute to Trump’s willingness to withdraw -- despite progress in consultations between Washington and its European allies to address US concerns. Impacts The reluctance of financial institutions to enter Iran’s market makes it difficult for firms to secure financing for their Iran operations. US secondary sanctions would have a particularly negative impact on Iran’s top European trading partners: Italy, France, Germany and Spain. A snapback of US sanctions would cut Iranian oil exports and push up crude oil prices.

Oil prices complicate Latin America outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Alternative Energies

Subject 'Winners' and 'losers' from the recent collapse in oil prices. Significance The recent precipitate fall in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude price falling below 50 dollars/barrel in January (less than half its September 2014 level), is clearly having a major impact around the world. In Latin America, which includes both oil importing and exporting countries, there will be winners and losers from this development, although in some cases the oil price impact is likely to prove more nuanced. Impacts Plunging oil prices are compounding doubts surrounding the regional hydrocarbons sector. The effect on investment decisions will have a longer-term impact on the region. The development of alternative energies in Latin America will be hit by the lower prices.

The dynamic information spill-over effect of WTI crude oil prices on China’s traditional energy sectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 516-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Jun Zhang ◽  
Yao-Bin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Processing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.Design/methodology/approachHong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.Originality/valueThe general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.

The asymmetry effect of oil price changes on inflation, and the welfare implication for Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard K. Ayisi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Implication ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Asymmetry

PurposeHigh inflation levels remain a challenge in macroeconomic stabilization policies among developing economies. Oil price is identified as an important driver of inflation. In the wake of high and unstable international oil prices, the question regarding the relationship between inflation and crude oil prices, and its implication for economic welfare has become a fundamental empirical issue.Design/methodology/approachThis question is explored by estimating a non-linear autoregressive distribution lags (NARDL) model of inflation-oil nexus that examined the asymmetric response of inflation to oil price changes. The study then derived the welfare implication of the asymmetric responses, with implications for the petroleum pricing regime in Ghana.FindingsThe study found that inflation responds asymmetrically to oil prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. The welfare cost associated with the asymmetric response increases with increasing rate.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study have some implications for petroleum product pricing in Ghana. Recently, Ghana has moved from regulating petroleum prices to the automatic adjustment system. By this policy, petroleum prices change in tandem with the crude oil prices and exchange rates on the international market. Whiles this policy might be comparatively efficient, the evidence of asymmetric response of inflation to changes in oil prices raises some issues about the welfare effect of the policy.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the literature on the inflation-oil price nexus by investigating critical questions that remain puzzling. These questions include; Does inflation respond asymmetrically to the positive and negative shock of equal magnitude in oil prices? Does inflation response to the asymmetry changes in oil prices have any implications for the welfare of the country? Is the effect of oil price changes pernicious?

A dynamic relationship between crude oil price and Indian equity market: an empirical study with special reference to Indian benchmark index Sensex

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikhil Yadav ◽  
Priyanka Tandon ◽  
Ravindra Tripathi ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.FindingsThe study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.Originality/valueThe study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

scholarly journals Dynamics of oil price shocks and emerging stock market volatility: a generalized VAR approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Megha Agarwalla ◽  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Shib Sankar Jana
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Time Period

Purpose This study aims to establish the dynamic relationship between international crude oil prices and Indian stock prices represented by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) energy index. Design/methodology/approach Using Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction (VEC) model, impulse response function and variance decomposition test the study tries to ascertain the short-term and long-term dynamic association between the oil price shock and the movement of stock price and Granger causality test is applied to find out the nature of causality. Findings Considering vector autoregression estimation, the present study analyzes the relationship between the variables and tries to make a valid conclusion. The result of the co-integration test exhibits the presence of a long-term association between these two macro-economic variables during the period under study. Also, in the short-run VEC Granger causality result reveals that the movement of international crude oil price significantly influences the Indian stock price. Research limitations/implications To get a more robust result the study can be further extended by taking a longer time period with data of shorter time-frequency such as daily or weekly and further by using more sophisticated econometric and statistical tools. Further, the study can be extended to firm-level investigation considering the forward trading concentration with the Indian oil basket. Social implications In today’s globalized era, forecasting of share price movement helps investors in predicting the market and invest accordingly. Through this liquidity of the markets enhance and markets become more active in the global arena. Originality/value This study represents fresh findings in the changing time period the linkage between crude oil prices and stock prices which are of value to the academicians, researchers, policymakers, investors, market regulators, etc.

An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

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