Spanish government should survive its full term

Significance However, as opinion polls show that contending left- and right-wing party blocs are closer in terms of voting intentions, the government's performance and ability to collaborate with smaller parties remain key to the left’s ability to return for another term in office. Impacts Tight electoral competition between left and right points to a couple of years of political uncertainty for international investors. In the event of an early election, the most plausible scenario is a coalition of the centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox. The People's Party’s move further to the right could open space for the liberal Ciudadanos party to reclaim centrist support.

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.


Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.


Subject Spain's far-right party. Significance In Spain, the two mainstream centre-right parties see the far-right Vox party as an opportunity rather than a hindrance. The People’s Party (PP) and Ciudadanos co-rule the regional government in Andalusia, with support from Vox. If this governing arrangement proves stable and effective, it could represent the launchpad for Spain’s three right-wing parties to form the next national government. Impacts The consensus among centre-right parties over tax cuts suggests that these will be a central policy outcome of their collaboration. The prospect of continuous political instability will discourage investment in Spain. A right-wing government will see a deterioration in relations between Spain and Catalonia.


Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.


Populism ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-120
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Ramos ◽  
Priscilla Torres

Abstract Around the globe, a growing group of politicians are drawing on far-right sentiments to win elections and pursue their policy agendas. Such trends have the potential to undermine established democratic principles within states and reverse trends towards democracy on a global scale. Global public opinion polls in democracies show that citizens no longer find it essential to live in a democracy (Foa and Mounk 2016; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018). Furthermore, some see events such as the election of US President Trump and Brexit as catalysts for the diffusion of ultra-right-wing policies. In this article, we seek to explain the rise of the far-right beyond socio-economic and immigration concerns. We propose that not only do such politicians rely on domestic networks of support, but they are also aided by transnational far-right communities. These communities reinforce one another through the sharing of ideas, frames, and strategies to form an epistemic community. By examining political leaders’, parties’, and movements’ actions and rhetoric in our case studies of the U.S., Germany and the U.K., we illustrate the mutually supportive global communities of right-wing demagoguery. We conclude with a discussion of the findings and considerations for future research.


Significance This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023. Impacts The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials. While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats. An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.


Subject The threat to ruling Fidesz from radical Jobbik. Significance With its popularity plummeting and competition increasing from left and right, Fidesz's chances of maintaining parliamentary dominance after 2018 seem much eroded, although a growing economy could benefit it. Its by-election defeat in April to far-right Jobbik, albeit by only 261 votes, carries symbolic weight. For the first time, the radical party won not only a single-member constituency rather than a party-list seat, but also one outside its traditional stronghold of eastern Hungary. Jobbik could become a direct electoral threat to the party in power. Impacts If Fidesz allied with far-right Jobbik, it would further tarnish its image abroad, adding fuel to already tense EU and US relations. Jobbik will further its attempts to moderate its ideology to widen its electoral base. Jobbik may start to pick up votes from both left- and right-wing parties.


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-362
Author(s):  
Myungji Yang

Through the case of the New Right movement in South Korea in the early 2000s, this article explores how history has become a battleground on which the Right tried to regain its political legitimacy in the postauthoritarian context. Analyzing disputes over historiography in recent decades, this article argues that conservative intellectuals—academics, journalists, and writers—play a pivotal role in constructing conservative historical narratives and building an identity for right-wing movements. By contesting what they viewed as “distorted” leftist views and promoting national pride, New Right intellectuals positioned themselves as the guardians of “liberal democracy” in the Republic of Korea. Existing studies of the Far Right pay little attention to intellectual circles and their engagement in civil society. By examining how right-wing intellectuals appropriated the past and shaped triumphalist national imagery, this study aims to better understand the dynamics of ideational contestation and knowledge production in Far Right activism.


Author(s):  
Boris I. Kolonitskii

The article examines the cultural forms of legitimation / delegitimation of authority of the Provisional Government. Particular attention is paid to the personal authority of Alexander Kerensky, including rhetorical (persuasive) devices and visual images which underlay the tactics of praising or condemning him. As the main source, the article uses the newspapers of A.A. Suvorin, namely Malen'kaya gazeta [Little newspaper], Narodnaya gazeta [People’s newspaper], Rus' [Rus], Novaya Rus' [New Rus]. These newspapers are compared with resolutions, letters and diaries, and with publications in other periodicals. The study clarifies some aspects of political isolation of the Provisional Government in the fall of 1917. By this time, the propaganda attack on Kerensky was conducted not only by the Bolsheviks and other left-wing groups but also by the right-wing and conservative publications. The propaganda of the left- and right-wing opponents was significantly different but they had a point of contact: both of them created the image of the “traitor” who was unworthy to remain in power.


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