Chile leader may see more Prosur headaches than kudos

Subject Foreign policy and Prosur. Significance Government-opposition differences on foreign policy are unusual in Chile, but have been triggered by President Sebastian Pinera’s championship of Prosur, a new regional grouping launched in Santiago on March 22. It has been criticised by the left-wing opposition as bringing together only centre-right and right-wing governments. Impacts Trade issues, although remaining important, may become less of a driver of Chile’s foreign policy. There is no clear reason to expect that Prosur will be more successful than previous initiatives like UNASUR. Discrepancies in Chile over foreign policy and, particularly, relations with the Bolsonaro government will persist.

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baris Kesgin

Scholars and policymakers have long used the shorthand of hawks and doves to characterize leader personalities that correspond to a particular political inclination, whereby hawks are considered right-wing and more aggressive in foreign policy, and doves are left-wing and more peaceful. This article posits that a sound discussion of who hawks and doves in foreign policy are requires an engagement with research on political leadership. It promises a less superficial understanding of the dichotomy of hawks and doves, and uses leadership trait analysis to explore hawkish and dovish leaders’ qualities. The article profiles Israel’s prime ministers since the end of the Cold War, where in a high security environment, these words are most often used to describe its domestic and foreign matters and its cooperative and conflictual actions. This article’s findings encourage an unpacking of these commonly used shorthand labels with political leadership approaches. They are also useful to highlight, most notably, the significance of complexity and distrust in understanding hawkish and dovish leaders. Hawks think simpler and are more doubtful of others than doves, this article finds. Future research, the article suggests, will benefit from looking deeper than simple, dichotomous use of this analogy, and exploring ways to operationalize individual-level measurements of hawks and doves in foreign policy.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1096-1111
Author(s):  
Andreea Stoian ◽  
Delia Tatu-Cornea

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of the political partisanship of government in charges of returns on the European stock markets. The authors found a large body of research investigating this issue for the case of US stock market but less evidence for the European stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ a panel data model with fixed-effects and an additional dynamic panel model using the bias-corrected LSDV estimator on a data set consisting of monthly and quarterly data. The data range from 2000 to 2010 and cover 20 European Union (EU) countries. The authors test several hypotheses, and run distinct regressions using political, financial, and economic variables. The authors also divide the data set into two sub-samples in order to reveal the distinctions between advanced and emerging economies in the EU. Findings – The authors find that stock markets perform better under right-wing administrations. The result is consistent for the advanced EU economies, but the authors found no robust evidence in that sense for emerging countries. Additionally, the authors show that European stock market preferences for right/left-wing administrations is not necessarily related to the beliefs about the size of unemployment, inflation, deficit, and/or debt, which opens the field for further research in this area. Originality/value – The study contributes to existing knowledge. It examines if Wall Street folklore, asserting for many decades that stock markets perform better under right-wing governments, also holds for European stock markets given the distinctions in the political and financial systems between USA and Europe. Moreover, the authors underline the introduction in the analysis of the Central and Eastern European countries.


Significance Reunion of the island is now an option, for the first time since the Turkish invasion of 1974. There is strong international support, but designing a deal acceptable to both sides may be more difficult than some politicians and public opinion on both sides suppose. Tough choices and sophisticated compromises will be necessary in the next few months and may not be forthcoming. Yet among both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, there are expectations that a settlement could revitalise the island, where both sides' economies are stagnating. Impacts Agreement would ease decades-old tensions between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, benefiting NATO and the EU. However, a settlement would not significantly unblock the path of Turkey's EU accession bid. Cyprus would become a more appealing destination for foreign investment and tourism. With left-wing politicians on both sides deciding the deal, NATO and US interests would have to be safeguarded during talks. Turkey must decide how to respond to the unwinding of a four decades-old foreign policy.


Significance Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15. Impacts If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely. The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV. The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.


Significance Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate. Impacts PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity. However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies. PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy. A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.


Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.


Significance The coalition government of left-wing Syriza and right-wing nationalist Independent Greeks (Anel) significantly lags behind the conservative opposition New Democracy (ND) party in opinion polls. The partners will seek to complete the bailout, then present themselves as seeing the programme through while limiting the pain of reforms imposed by foreign creditors. Elections need not be held before October 2019. Impacts Tsipras is understood to be making quiet overtures to the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, but it is still in disarray. Greece’s escape from austerity depends on growth, which is expected to inch up from zero last year to around 2% this year. Another crucial indicator, unemployment, is projected to fall only gradually, from 21.7% now to below 20.0% next year.


Subject French party competition. Significance The 2017 presidential election dealt a major blow to the parties that had dominated French political competition over the past six decades. Party competition consolidated subsequently around a 'globalist against nativist' narrative pitting President Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche (LRM) against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, this competition looks set to persist. Impacts Macron’s hardening positions on crime and immigration will weaken further his appeal among left-wing voters. Macron’s focus on the 2022 election may weaken his recent growing assertiveness vis-a-vis EU and French foreign policy. Next year’s municipal elections represent an opportunity for some of the marginalised parties to regain electoral momentum.


1979 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Fletcher

It is now generally accepted that prior to the outbreak of the First World War German Social Democracy did not, as a rule, count foreign policy among its more central concerns. It is often further assumed that the right wing of the prewar German labor movement was still less interested in foreign policy problems than were left-wing or centrist party spokesmen. This assumption requires qualification, for the work of East German historians and others has shown that social imperialist thought had made heavy inroads into the revisionist wing of prewar Social Democracy. In fact, revisionists and reformists from Vollmar onwards frequently manifested a deep and enduring concern with the problems of Germany's position in the world. Yet there remains in the person of Eduard Bernstein—in many ways the father of revisionism and certainly its intellectual leader and chief publicist—one prominent revisionist whose pre-1914 foreign policy position continues to defy satisfactory categorization and generalization.


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