China's 'new era' will see Party power resurgent

Subject Xi Jinping's second term. Significance The 'new era' announced by President Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress in October will get fully underway when the election of a new National People's Congress and associated appointments next March complete the five-yearly handover to a new cohort of national leaders. In important ways, however, it has already begun. Impacts Compliance costs will rise for enterprises, particularly foreign ones. The private sector will rely more than previously on patron-client relations rather than competitiveness. Government efforts to promote innovation will focus on technology.

Subject Private sector tycoons and elite politics in China. Significance In the run-up to the five-yearly Party Congress, as leaders strive to maintain the appearance of unity and order, signs of intense competition have spilled into the open. Guo Wengui, a colourful property tycoon now living in New York, has made allegations about President Xi Jinping and anti-corruption chief Wang Qishan. Chinese authorities are taking punitive action against Guo and other high-flying entrepreneurs while regulators investigate private sector firms that have made large and high-profile overseas investments. Impacts The Party Congress will be far tenser than expected, and factional rivalry may claim further private sector proxy victims. Guo's allegations may already have ruined Wang's chances of reappointment to the top leadership team. Share prices of the firms believed to have shaky credit arrangements and political patronage will struggle.


Subject China's 19th Communist Party Congress. Significance Preparations are underway for the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which is likely to be scheduled for October or November. Much political groundwork has been laid in support of President Xi Jinping and for progress on his vision for China. The Congress will set a direction towards the 100th anniversary in 2021 of the founding of the Party and the handover of power to a sixth generation of leaders shortly after. Impacts Beijing will probably be cautious in its foreign policy during the months running up to the Congress. Consolidating his position at the Congress should increase Xi's ability to press his economically reformist, politically illiberal agenda. Bar any serious reversal, Xi will be in a position to dominate Chinese politics after he retires from formal offices.


Subject The removal of presidential term limits. Significance China's constitution will be amended at the National People's Congress this month to remove a rule that prevents people from serving more than two consecutive terms as the country's president, state media report. The limit was introduced in the 1982 revision of the constitution that was part of a set of laws, rules and conventions designed to prevent China reverting to dictatorship as it had been under Mao Zedong. Removing the term limit will allow Xi Jinping to remain president after his second term ends in 2023, when he will be 69. Impacts Turnover in other leadership positions could slow down too, making the top echelons older and less diverse. Comparisons of Xi with Mao Zedong are for the most part misplaced; Xi is a conservative, not a radical. Despite consolidating power, Xi's second term may be more difficult due to more serious external challenges.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 5-13
Author(s):  
Gang CHEN

In March 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping kick-started his second term at the annual National People’s Congress, which amended the country’s constitution to allow Xi to remain in power beyond his scheduled departure in 2023. Xi’s power consolidation also came with the Party’s reinforced Leninist control of state apparatus at various levels, corporations, civil society, the media and the academia. Party-State reforms in 2018 were a reversal of Party-State separation (dangzheng fenkai) initiated by Deng Xiaoping.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Czarina Poon

AbstractChina is entering a new era; after the 12th National People's Congress, which is to be held in March 2013, China's fifth generation of power transition will be complete. Czarina Poon offers the LIM readership an overview of the political and economic developments within China and outlines the governmental and legal structures for a nation that is one of the last five remaining Communist countries.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
Lance L P GORE

Unveiled at the 19th Party Congress, China’s new guiding ideology of “Xi Jinping Thought of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” offers a blueprint for development to mid-21st century. Xi is in a position to demand loyalty, enforce strict discipline and fight the centrifugal forces within the Party. Domestically Xi faces the challenge of motivating the cadre corps demoralised by anti-corruption campaigns. Internationally a more assertive foreign policy is expected.


Subject Leadership politics in China. Significance Xi Jinping seems to have monopolised political power, but he must still heed the voices of other major Party factions and Party elders. In October or November next year will come the next five-yearly Party Congress, the most important event on China's political calendar, which will endorse personnel changes in the top leadership. Manoeuvring for positions has already begun. Impacts Xi's proteges are not generally reform-oriented, so if they predominate, this will weigh against economic liberalisation. Promotion of Wang Yang to the Politburo Standing Committee would indicate openness to both power-sharing and reform. Appointment of Zhou Qiang to the Politburo could mean a subtler approach to legal affairs or anti-corruption. Promotion of aerospace expert Zhang Qingwei would place priority on industrial policy.


Subject The upcoming Chinese Communist Party Congress. Significance President Xi Jinping may be about to upend China’s post-Mao succession arrangements at the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, scheduled to open on October 18. Xi has engineered a 'quiet revolution' that has introduced new risks into China's domestic and foreign policies. To continue his unfinished revolution and safeguard its legacy, Xi has the incentive and the political momentum to seek a third term as the head of the Party. Impacts Most of Xi's ambitious projects are works in progress, and success is far from certain. Xi’s leadership could be called into question should the economy run into serious problems, related to corporate debt, for instance. Failure of One Belt One Road or a serious breakdown in relations with Washington could cause problems for Xi domestically.


Subject The purge and replacement of erstwhile presidential contender Sun Zhengcai. Significance Politburo member Sun Zhengcai, once seen as a potential successor to Xi Jinping as president, has been removed from his post as Party chief of Chongqing and placed under investigation. Chen Min'er, a Xi loyalist, replaces him. Impacts The top leadership will probably manage to present a relatively united front to the public ahead of the Party Congress. In the much longer term, the corrosion of collective leadership could reduce political stability, which may damage investor confidence. An administration composed of officials whose thinking matches that of the core leader is less likely to generate effective policy.


Subject China's climate change policies. Significance UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last month described China as "strongly committed to the leadership in climate action". President Xi Jinping asserted at the 19th Party Congress in October that China is in the “driving seat” when it comes to “international co-operation” on climate change. However, China's action on climate change so far has been driven primarily by domestic concerns rather than international pressure or concerns about the global effects of climate change. Impacts China could come to dominate clean energy industries worldwide, particularly renewables, electric mobility and electrification technologies. Efforts to combat air pollution will further restrict the supply of commodities, particularly steel, coal and aluminium. Anti-pollution efforts will be particularly energetic where they also reduce capacity in energy-intensive sectors with overcapacity.


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