Brazil's fiscal crunch will worsen Rio crime crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Police Presence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Janeiro State

Subject Deteriorating crime levels in Rio de Janeiro. Significance The government of Rio de Janeiro state, facing a financial crunch, has been accused of undermining the iconic police pacification programme tasked with fighting organised crime in its slums. This represents a blow to a security strategy credited with significantly reducing homicides before Rio's financial troubles began compromising the police presence in the slums from 2014 onwards. The latest budget cut comes precisely as a war between Rio's most powerful gangs intensifies. Impacts Recent reductions in funding and other resources will leave police unprepared to tackle the gang war in Rocinha. Criminal violence will damage Rio's attractiveness for tourists and business, further complicating the recent decline in oil revenues. The decline in the pacification strategy may undercut its importance as a promising model to be applied in other violent cities.

Colombian border violence will Venezuela worsen crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Organised Crime Groups

Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Colombia peace talks offer scope for organised crime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government ◽  
Criminal Groups

Subject The rising threat from BACRIM. Significance Organised criminal groups are now the non-state actors most frequently responsible for internal displacement of Colombians, according to a recent UN report. There is also evidence that the so-called BACRIM (criminal bands) are seeking to fill the vacuum after an eventual demobilisation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The BACRIM, and Los Urabenos in particular, have expanded control over rural areas and the mining sector, posing a threat as the government seeks to attract foreign investment to boost development in a post-conflict environment. Impacts Criminal violence in cities along the western coast is already causing damage to Colombia's international image. Increased insecurity perceptions risk marring the political and economic benefits the government expects from the peace process. Criminal groups such as Los Urabenos will benefit from the vacuum left by the FARC if a peace treaty is signed later this year.

El Chapo arrest will not improve Mexican security

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Drug Trafficker ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Maximum Security ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Government

Subject The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker. Significance On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations. Impacts Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely. El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term. Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived. While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Drug haul highlights Costa Rica’s security challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Infrastructure

Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.

A “think piece” on intelligence, investigation and prosecution

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fitzpatrick
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Current System ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Home Office ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to expose the failure of the criminal justice system of England and Wales to provide an effective response to widespread fraud and to point to sources from which a new doctrine may be created. The author’s approach draws on public sources, in particular, recent Home Office publications, the work of the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee and studies undertaken by the Mayor of London’s offices in 2014/2015. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a critical assessment of the criminal justice system based on the author’s own experience as a fraud prosecutor. Findings Among the findings is that, while the failings of the current system have been apparent for some years, the extent and depth of the same failings have not been publicly realised, nor sufficiently acknowledged by the authorities. It has become obvious that the traditional response of the criminal justice system, when employed against fraud, will fail for want of anything corresponding to the resources required. A new doctrine will emerge as the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 is revised and more flexibly employed. The Criminal Finances Bill also holds much promise, in particular, with its new offences akin to money laundering and the provision of powers of investigation at a significantly lower level of command among investigators. However, there remains an apparent reluctance in law enforcement to explain its methodology or to support reform, which would allow a fuller sharing of intelligence and appreciations of threats posed by fraud derived from intelligence with the financial services sector and the victim public. Originality/value The value of the paper is derived from the author’s long experience as a fraud prosecutor and as an adviser to the government, on fraud and organised crime, in a closely related jurisdiction with similar problems, but where greater success has been achieved, namely, Hong Kong.

Iran budget signals caution over sanctions relief

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Political System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Patterns ◽  
International Dispute ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject Iranian budget. Significance The government negotiated the 2015-16 budget, which will come into effect at the start of the fiscal year on March 21, against the backdrop of two major uncertainties -- the outlook for global oil prices and talks to resolve the international dispute over Iran's nuclear programme. As legislated, the budget reins in spending and assumes the continuation of the sanctions regime and significantly lower oil revenues. However, there are serious questions over whether the budget's projections, including higher revenues from taxation and privatisation, and lower spending on cash grants, will be met. Impacts Even with a nuclear agreement, the government's budget balancing act this year will be a challenging one. Parliament's smooth passing of the budget shows that Iran's political system can operate on consensus even under external pressure. Removal of sanctions and increased oil revenues could lead to a return of undisciplined government spending patterns.

Ecuador unlikely to scrap dollarisation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Severe Strain ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The future of dollarisation in a context of low oil prices. Significance Oil revenues have underpinned the popularity of President Rafael Correa's government by enabling spending on welfare, infrastructure and development that has boosted economic growth. The collapse of world oil prices has placed the dollar-denominated economy under severe strain and raised doubts about the future of dollarisation in Ecuador. Impacts The fiscal challenges the government is facing will provide the opposition with an opportunity to strengthen in 2015. The right will play on concerns over the management of the economy, the scale of public debt and the size of the state. The left will attack the government for failing to reduce Ecuador's reliance on oil and undertake wider and deeper reforms.

Costa Rica moves to prevent gang threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Investigation ◽  
Security Concerns ◽  
The Government ◽  
Criminal Groups

Subject Security concerns. Significance Although Costa Rica has long avoided the crime problems of its northern neighbours, a report released in June by its Judicial Investigation Agency found that the number of criminal groups operating in the country has increased over the last decade, with members of gangs (or 'maras') from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador establishing a presence in Costa Rica. While the country remains one of the safest in the region, mara activity has had an impact on crime levels, pushing the government to take action. Impacts Increased mara activity may cause conflict with local gangs, particularly in urban areas. Initial successes in dismantling gangs may encourage other groups to try to fill the power vacuum. Pre-emptive action will slow the development of organised crime, but could encourage gangs to move to neighbouring countries.

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