Rising oil prices will bolster Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Environmental Discourse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yasuni National Park ◽  
Fiscal Conditions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.

South Sudan oil sector expansion will prove elusive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Income Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technical Issues ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Budget Shortfalls ◽  
Domestic Fuel ◽  
Budget Revenue

Significance Since independence in 2011 -- and during the preceding six years of autonomy -- the budget has depended overwhelmingly on oil revenues. However, production has contracted significantly since the outbreak of conflict in 2013, and revenues have suffered further from declining global oil prices. With savings and credit almost entirely depleted, the government needs new revenue to fund budget shortfalls, and is looking to the only reliable income source it has known. Impacts Logistics, equipment and technical issues will further complicate efforts to boost production. Plans to build a domestic refinery could ease domestic fuel shortages, but may face delays. Budget revenue targets will be missed, putting pressure on expenditure requirements.

Pemex business plan draws scepticism in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Insurmountable Obstacle ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Substantial Drop

Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Iran budget signals caution over sanctions relief

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Political System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Patterns ◽  
International Dispute ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject Iranian budget. Significance The government negotiated the 2015-16 budget, which will come into effect at the start of the fiscal year on March 21, against the backdrop of two major uncertainties -- the outlook for global oil prices and talks to resolve the international dispute over Iran's nuclear programme. As legislated, the budget reins in spending and assumes the continuation of the sanctions regime and significantly lower oil revenues. However, there are serious questions over whether the budget's projections, including higher revenues from taxation and privatisation, and lower spending on cash grants, will be met. Impacts Even with a nuclear agreement, the government's budget balancing act this year will be a challenging one. Parliament's smooth passing of the budget shows that Iran's political system can operate on consensus even under external pressure. Removal of sanctions and increased oil revenues could lead to a return of undisciplined government spending patterns.

Ecuadorian government seeks to boost oil activity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Source ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Total Oil

Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.

Ecuador unlikely to scrap dollarisation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Severe Strain ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The future of dollarisation in a context of low oil prices. Significance Oil revenues have underpinned the popularity of President Rafael Correa's government by enabling spending on welfare, infrastructure and development that has boosted economic growth. The collapse of world oil prices has placed the dollar-denominated economy under severe strain and raised doubts about the future of dollarisation in Ecuador. Impacts The fiscal challenges the government is facing will provide the opposition with an opportunity to strengthen in 2015. The right will play on concerns over the management of the economy, the scale of public debt and the size of the state. The left will attack the government for failing to reduce Ecuador's reliance on oil and undertake wider and deeper reforms.

Venezuela's oil sector faces rising challenges

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Heavy Crude ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.

Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Slight Rise

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Race to succeed Correa gets underway in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Possible successors to President Rafael Correa. Significance The surprising news that President Rafael Correa will not stand in the 2017 presidential elections has triggered a debate over who the ruling party, Alianza Pais, will select as its candidate. The task confronting the party is to choose a candidate who has the potential to secure low and middle-income votes on the one hand and appeal to national and international investors on the other. Striking this balance will be particularly important as the collapse of world oil prices and slowdown of economic growth has damaged the government and fuelled social and political tensions. Impacts Whoever Alianza Pais selects is likely to be the strong favourite, despite the government's difficulties in recent months. The key election battle is likely to be over control of the legislature rather than the presidency. The primary challenge for the opposition to the right will be to find a candidate capable of uniting various leaders and factions.

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