Ecuadorian government seeks to boost oil activity

Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.


Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.


Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.


Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.


Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.


Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.


Significance If successful, the lawsuit could force the government to cancel or suspend its oil production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with major international oil companies such as ExxonMobil. Given the growing economic importance of the oil sector, the outcome of the lawsuit will have major economic implications for Guyana. Impacts Some potential investors may be wary of committing to Guyana while the lawsuit remains unresolved. Other activists may be emboldened to launch further challenges on environmental grounds. Neighbouring Suriname may experience a spillover effect, with increased pressure to upgrade its environmental legislation.


Subject Outlook for China's oil sector. Significance China's 'big three' oil companies have this month announced changes to their top management. The three companies have been under pressure from corruption investigations, and the collapse in global oil prices has weakened them financially. The latest reshuffles reveal the importance of politics in shaping the behaviour of China's oil and gas companies, and with it the competitive landscape of China's energy industry and global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. Impacts There will be partial consolidation of some NOC assets, but 'mega-mergers' are unlikely. China's oil and gas companies will invest overseas with more robust government backing. Sinopec and CNPC will focus on upgrading refining capacity to meet more stringent fuel quality standards. Foreign investors will find new opportunities as the NOC's sell assets and the government opens the sector to private firms.


Significance Since independence in 2011 -- and during the preceding six years of autonomy -- the budget has depended overwhelmingly on oil revenues. However, production has contracted significantly since the outbreak of conflict in 2013, and revenues have suffered further from declining global oil prices. With savings and credit almost entirely depleted, the government needs new revenue to fund budget shortfalls, and is looking to the only reliable income source it has known. Impacts Logistics, equipment and technical issues will further complicate efforts to boost production. Plans to build a domestic refinery could ease domestic fuel shortages, but may face delays. Budget revenue targets will be missed, putting pressure on expenditure requirements.


2021 ◽  
Vol 344 ◽  
pp. 01018
Author(s):  
Violetta Kuzmina

The relevance of this study lies in the fact that the modern oil market is characterized by instability and high competition. Depletion of oil fields, deterioration of equipment for oil production, price volatility and political conflicts negatively affect Russia’s position in the global energy market. New economic conditions in 2021 are associated with a decrease in demand for oil and oil products, high import dependence, conservation wells to complete the deal under OPEC ++, which will lead to a fall in the market by 3-10%. It is necessary to apply new methods of oil production, one of which is the method of achimovka oil fields. Methods. The initial materials were statistical data from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, world rating reports. Results. The pandemic and self-isolation of 2020 led to the fact that the Russian oil sector lost 50-60% of proceeds from the export of hydrocarbons, more than 50% of its capitalization. To support the industry, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia will allocate 35 billion rubles. until 2024 for the development of new offshore and deep oil deposits. Conclusions. For Russian oil companies, the following is relevant: search for new sales markets (for example, Asia); application of innovative technologies to maintain the profitability of oil and gas production through the development of bazhen and achimovka; development of small deposits and deposits with hard-to-recover reserves.


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