Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Legitimacy Crisis ◽  
Legislative Election

Subject Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter. Significance President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have survived the political crises of the past year with little damage and, short of a substantial economic or legitimacy crisis, will likely score another legislative election victory on June 7. Businesses, the financial sector and households are all likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, and financial markets to be jittery.

Textual analysis for China’s financial markets: a review and discussion

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Huang ◽  
Wenfeng Wu ◽  
Tong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Textual Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survey Paper ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Important Field

Purpose This is a literature survey paper. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the latest developments in textual analysis on China’s financial markets, highlighting its differences from existing works in the US markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors review the literature and carry out an experiment of sentiment analysis based on a small sample of Chinese news articles. Findings Based on the experiment of sentiment analysis, there is limited evidence on the association between sentiment and other contemporaneous or future returns. Originality/value The supply of financial textual information has grown exponentially in the past decades. Technological advancements in recent years make the programming-based analysis an effective tool to digest such information. The authors highlight the use of credible textual information and discuss directions of research in this important field.

Starting points for a new researcher in behavioral finance

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Yuh Huang ◽  
Joseph C.P. Shieh ◽  
Yu-Cheng Kao
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Significant Area ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Number Of Publications ◽  
New Literature

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to systematically consolidate and analyze papers in behavioral finance in the past 20 years, and to provide an overall introduction to scholars and professionals in the industry who may be interested in behavioral finance in the future. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on searching keywords in databases of ISI Web of Science (WOS). Survey data covers the period from 1995 to 2013, with 124 journals and 347 articles. The authors are committed to finding the number of publications and times cited in the field of behavioral finance to measure the contribution of active researchers. Findings – More research papers in behavioral finance are emerging, making it a significant area of study. Most of the papers can be classified as empirical or theory. The number of papers in the review class should be increased to assist scholars and professionals in understanding behavioral finance and its application. A number of personal and institutional main contributors have been making a considerable impact on the field of behavioral finance. With the vigorous development of financial markets all around the world, more and more scholars are becoming involved in behavioral finance research. Research limitations/implications – Articles published earlier than 1995 or not included in the WOS database cannot be included in the research; however, this does not diminish the contribution of older scholars in any way. Moreover, the research does not include non-SCI/SSCI articles. Originality/value – Unlike a traditional literature review, which classifies and elaborates different research paths (Subrahmanyam, 2007), the research adopts the ISI WOS database as a tool for analysis. This new literature review methodology enables us to systematically consolidate and analyze papers in behavioral finance.

Commodities rout will fuel EM concerns and volatility

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Country Specific

Significance This drop has taken oil into its second bear market in the space of just over a year amid a broader rout in the prices of commodities, notably copper and gold. The commodity sell-off is fuelled by mounting concerns over the economy and financial markets of China, the world's top crude importer and its largest energy user. The sell-off is exacerbated by fears over the fallout from a US interest rates rise, which could come as early as September. Country-specific risks are weighing on emerging market (EM) assets, notably the currencies of large commodity exporters such as Brazil and Russia. Impacts The sharp fall in commodity prices will exert further downward pressure on inflation in both emerging and advanced economies. Re-emerging disinflationary trends will bode ill for the ECB efforts to boost inflation in the euro-area. The commodity sell-off will exacerbate economic and political crises in Brazil and Russia. The EM currencies fall is forcing many central banks to signal an end to monetary easing or to tighten policy.

New measures may not appease violent protests in Chile

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower Middle Class ◽  
Business Elite ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Government

Subject Continuing violent protests. Significance The wave of demonstrations and violence that has rocked Santiago and most other Chilean cities over the past few days, shocking Chileans themselves, is essentially a protest against the “1%”, in other words the political and business elite. However, this does not mean, at least for now, that Chileans want a radical change in the predominantly neoliberal economic model, but rather a fairer share of its proceeds and opportunities. Impacts Repair of some sections of the Metro could take months, to the detriment of mostly lower-middle-class neighbourhoods of Santiago. The disruption of activity will pull down growth this year, which was already expected to drop to around 2.5% from 4.0% in 2018. Growing reports of police and army brutality and violations of the law are further polarising the situation. For the rest of its term the government will be at the mercy of events and will have to negotiate agreements with the opposition.

Relationships of collapse: network brokerage, opportunism and fraud in financial markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 2097-2111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryce Hannibal ◽  
Hiroshi Ono
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Network Ties ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Network Characteristics ◽  
Network Location ◽  
Telecommunications Market

Purpose This paper explores the social-behavioral aspects of financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of social relations and networks which contributed to the market crash in the US telecommunications sector in the late 1990s. Design/methodology/approach A network theoretic approach is used to examine historical qualitative data. The authors suggest that the network characteristics of financial intermediaries allowed security analysts to control and manipulate information that was disclosed to the investing public. Findings The authors find evidence that brokerage locations in the network of actors within the telecommunications market allowed select individuals opportunities to engage in unethical behavior and malfeasance. The authors further highlight the harmful effects of over-embeddedness by illustrating that strong and dense network ties within the financial sector were exploited to distort the flow and reliability of information. The paper concludes with a note on the generalizability of this study and an examination of the current economic-legal structure of Wall Street. Originality/value Recently, some economists and network scholars have begun examining social relations more thoroughly in the financial sector. This paper is one of the first that focuses specifically on the role and network location of research analysts prior to a market collapse.

Neither Beijing nor Washington will budge on tariffs

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Taiwan Strait ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance Over the past few month the world’s two largest economies have exchanged threats to impose tariffs on each other. The first set on both sides took effect on July 6. The bilateral trade disputes create uncertainty in global financial markets. Current and future tariffs will hurt both economies and others around the world too. Impacts China will try to compensate by seeking cooperation with other regions and promoting initiatives such as the Belt and Road. China is likely to continue acting toughly on other issues, such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Tariffs and weaker domestic demand will put downward pressure on China’s manufacturing sector in particular. Volatility in China's stock markets will have spill-over effects on other Asian markets and test the resilience of these economies.

Inexperienced Castillo faces major challenges in Peru

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Full Term ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Company Taxation

Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.

Impact of COVID-19 on financial institutions: Navigating the global emerging patterns of financial crime

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Wronka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Financial Crime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Emerging Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The current COVID-19 pandemic has already proven to be one of the world’s deadliest crises in modern history with far-reaching impacts on different sectors of the global economy. The financial sector is among the most widely affected by the economic crisis occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the most notable effects is related to financial crime. It is against this backdrop that the present study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 on financial institutions with the main focus being on financial crime Design/methodology/approach Its twofold objectives were to critically examine the global emerging patterns of financial crime and their association with the COVID-19 pandemic; and to investigate how financial institutions across the world have been responding to, managing, and dealing with the emerging patterns of financial crime brought about by (or linked to) the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings It was found out that as the pandemic ravages the world and pushes people and businesses to the very limits of their endurance, many financial sector stakeholders and players are responding in ways that put the entire financial sector and all its stakeholders at great risk. Specifically, COVID-19 pandemic has led to the emergence of new patterns of financial crime that were either unheard of or were not as rampant in the past. Originality/value Both the descriptive and correlation analyses produced by this study provide new insights into the impact of COVID-19 on financial institutions with a main focus on financial crime.

Political risks and financial markets: emerging vs developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bechir Ben Ghozzi ◽  
Hasna Chaibi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
The Political ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors provide a comparative analysis between emerging and developed financial markets in terms of the effects of political risks on stock market returns and volatility. The authors also examine whether this impact depends on the nature of political risks. Therefore, this study aims to detect which financial markets are the most profitable and the riskiest in terms of political risks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate the impact of political risks on the excess stock market return and its conditional volatility using the generalized ARCH model for a sample of 46 developed and emerging markets over a period ranging from 1995 to 2019. In order to test how the nature of political risks affects equity excess returns and volatility differently in different markets, the authors employ (1) a composite political risk score, (2) the four subgroups of political risks as defined by Bekaert et al. (2005, 2014) and (3) the individual dimensions of political risks.FindingsThe findings indicate that the composite political risk is priced into both stock markets. The effect of political risks is positive for excess returns and negative for volatility. The authors show that the political risk leads to more volatility in developed markets. Nevertheless, the effect of individual components varies according to the market category.Practical implicationsThe authors provide a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the political risk of the country. The findings help investors make investment decisions based on the political decisions of governments. In other words, investors should consider political uncertainty when determining their expected earnings.Originality/valueThe authors engage monthly panel data methodology in terms of the political risk stock market relationship. In addition, the authors consider recent and very long data covering the period 1995–2019. Furthermore, this study combines three various political risk measures, and both equity returns and volatility.

scholarly journals Interregnum as a Legal and Political Concept: A Brief Contextual Survey

2016 ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Theophanidis
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Roman Law ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Main Section ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Political Concept

I propose to trace the dialogical path of Antonio Gramsci’s concept of ‘interregnum’ briefly mentioned in one of his prison notebooks which was rediscovered in recent years and used in various political writings. I will first examine the meaning of the concept of interregnum in the context of Roman law, where it originates. Second, I’ll show how the Italian writer used it in a two-page note included in his Quaderni del carcere to describe the political crisis of our times. I will also briefly sketch the renewal of the idea of interregnum from the 1980s onward, when a specific quote from Gramsci’s note was used to frame various political crises, from South African apartheid to the civil war in Syria, all the way to the rise of a new far right ideology. In the third and main section, I’ll explore in more detail how, in the past five years, Keith Tester, Zygmunt Bauman, and Étienne Balibar all explicitly engage with the idea of interregnum in an open dialogue. While referencing one another, they used Gramsci’s interpretation of the concept in an effort to understand and address the contemporary problem of political synthesis. In the fourth part, and in the spirit of keeping discussion open, I will raise some issues regarding the various paths proposed by Bauman and Balibar to find our way ‘out of the interregnum.

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