Poll win for Cambodia’s ruling party could be pyrrhic

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
International Community ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Internal Affairs ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Cambodia's ruling party's hold on power. Significance Cambodia is scheduled to hold elections for the 125-seat National Assembly on July 29. The poll comes amid rising international scrutiny of the government, whose moves have attracted criticism for damaging Cambodia’s democracy. Impacts The international community would begrudgingly accept continued CPP governance, but further targeted sanctions are likely. If the CPP lost the election, and accepted the result, it would probably push for a role in a coalition government. Any legal amendments limiting foreign involvement in Cambodian internal affairs could be a risk to foreign investment.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Smuggling will weigh on Tunisian economy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Border Towns ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance Essid has been working to form a new coalition government since general elections in late December. The new unity government will face tremendous pressure to jumpstart the economy, ensure political stability, and counter growing security threats. One major challenge -- cross-border smuggling -- poses a particularly serious threat to the new government. Smuggling costs the government some 615 million dollars per year, representing nearly 5% of total tax revenues, and undermines legitimate trade, further damaging growth. Impacts If the government fails to address smuggling, it will continue to lose critical revenue. Yet cracking down on smuggling will probably meet with considerable opposition -- particularly in rural areas and border towns. The new government's lack of a decisive mandate will impede reforms.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Fading FDI faces increasing challenges in Chile

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Promotion ◽  
The Government

Subject The fall in foreign investment last year. Significance The government has launched a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (APIE) to buck a sharp drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year. Breaking with the country's long-standing sector-agnostic approach, the agency will seek to attract investment to specific sectors, including energy, public infrastructure and the food industry. Impacts A more business-friendly administration in Argentina could potentially divert FDI from Chile. Critics of the new FDI regulation maintain that it will dampen inflows. Efforts to attract investment in food and mining services represent a bid to diversify from mineral exports.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document