Kim-Trump summit is a win for Pyongyang and Beijing

Significance It resulted in a short (400-word) joint statement that contained no new specific pledges. It did not contain Trump's surprise announcements in the ensuing press conference that "we will be stopping the war games" and "I want to get our soldiers out". Trump also said North Korea "is already destroying a major missile engine testing site"; this too was not in the document. Impacts South Korean conservatives will strongly oppose Trump's 'war games' pledge, seeing it as a threat to national security. The summit's outcome will cause anxiety in Tokyo; neither of Japan's two main concerns (abductees and short-range missiles) were addressed. China has gained; Trump's military moves are de facto acceptance of its 'freeze for freeze' proposal.

Significance This followed Pyongyang’s breach of its 17-month moratorium on missile testing with two volleys on May 4 and May 9, each personally supervised by Kim and both including short-range ballistic missile launches. Impacts Kim has given Washington until the end of the year to rethink its stance; that is possible but unlikely. Pyongyang’s new missile may be able to penetrate South Korean missile defences. South Korea will persevere with cooperation efforts for now, despite Pyongyang’s rebuffs.


2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-184
Author(s):  
ShinHyung Seong

Peace matters in various ways in this globalized world, and the Korean Peninsula has been a critical situation in this matter, especially in the current climate. This article delves into Rev. Ik-whan Moon, a leader of the reunification movement, in South Korea in order to deal with the issue of peace. This article examines him in three parts: the enjoyable tenets of his life and social action, the theological meaning of his activism, and the new horizon of social activism through his new vision of the Kingdom of God. Rev. Moon began his social action at 59, but he dedicated his life to society as he wrote many poems, playing a part in the Korean reunification movement. His activism is based on his theology of the oppressed ( min-joong) and the Kingdom of God. Lastly, he created a historical momentum for the Korean reunification movement by visiting North Korea in 1989, in that he opened a new hope that South Korean civilians and North Korean civilians could meet each other. It was a non-obedience movement because no civilians could visit North Korea due to the National Security Law. Rev. Moon's actions towards Korean reunification give us great wisdom for peace in this contemporary violent world.


Significance President Donald Trump’s choice of Bolton and Pompeo has alarmed US allies, in large part because both men have advocated using military force towards Iran and North Korea, two countries with upcoming deadlines for action by Washington. Impacts Washington's tough line in US-North Korea talks will be stiffened by Bolton. Bolton will see a key part of his new post to be the enforcer of the president's national security decisions. Bolton will support Trump’s tough foreign-trade-deficit-reducing agenda.


Significance The message was conveyed by a South Korean delegation in Washington, briefing Trump on its talks earlier this week in Pyongyang. North Korea had said, the delegation reported, that it is “committed to denuclearisation” if regime security is not at risk. This follows months of escalating friction between North Korea and the international community that has seen Pyongyang ramp up its intercontinental missile and nuclear testing. Impacts The risk of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula could be reduced while talks are being prepared. Trump may relax his hawkish trade policy in the interim, to avoid alienating partners he needs in managing Pyongyang, including Beijing. A successful Trump-Kim meeting could gain South Korea’s president political benefits. If significant moves towards denuclearisation did occur, Trump’s administration might revise its pro-nuclear defence strategy. Any sanctions relief could be politically beneficial to the Pyongyang regime, but too much opening up could undermine it.


Significance South Korea’s unification minister (MOU) warned on April 10 that any US strike on North Korea would put “the safety of the public” at risk. A day later, Seoul’s defence (MND) and foreign (MFA) ministries dismissed rumours on local social media of an imminent war crisis as “overblown” and “groundless”, respectively. Moon Jae-in, the liberal opposition candidate whom most polls predict will win the May 9 snap presidential election, said he does not expect a US pre-emptive strike on the North. However, Moon also warned Washington that South Korea is “the concerned party” which “owns” peninsula-related matters, including the nuclear issue. Impacts Experienced military professionals in Trump’s cabinet and National Security Council are a restraining influence. South Korea and Japan, being in the front line, will counsel their US protector against any action that might imperil their security. If Moon Jae-in is elected, his desire to re-engage the North will clash with Trump’s hard-line attitude and narrow nuclear focus. After his smooth -- if insubstantial -- summit with Xi, Trump’s threatened unilateralism on North Korea is likely to stop at sanctions.


Headline NORTH KOREA: Hacking endangers South Korean security


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito D'Orazio

Since 1976, the militaries of the United States and South Korea have been holding routine joint military exercises (JMEs) for the purposes of military training and deterrence against North Korea. These exercises are frequently cited as a cause of tension on the peninsula, causing North Korea to escalate its conflictual rhetoric and behavior. I empirically assess this claim using new data on US-ROK JMEs and machine-coded event data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System. The findings show that North Korea does not systematically escalate its conflictual rhetoric or behavior during or near the occurrence of JMEs. The results hold for both low- and high-intensity exercises and for rhetoric that has the United States and South Korea as its target.


2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 721-740
Author(s):  
Han Woo Park

South Koreans have been producing social media content that sharply divided between conservative and progressive perspectives. This study analyzes a YouTube video clip during a South-North summit and then expands its scope to include the entire set of North Korea-related videos. The video was accused on the presidential petition website of violating South Korea's National Security Law. Despite sparking a debate on the suitability of the video's content among YouTube viewers, the petition did not attract much attention from the general public. Using this clip as a basis, we examine how YouTubers show interest in, reactions to, and engagement with North Korea-related media content using several network metrics and visualizations. Our analysis includes extensive background on South Korea's information policy toward North Korea. Based on our findings, we recommend that the South Korean government use cognitive and communication-oriented profiling-based input when formulating their information policy toward North Korea.


Significance Her successor is Chung Eui-yong, President Moon Jae-in’s former national security advisor. At his swearing-in yesterday, Chung called peace with Pyongyang “a must-go path”. At his confirmation hearing on February 5, he insisted that Kim Jong-un “still has the intention to denuclearise”. Moon’s term ends in May 2022, giving Chung little time. Impacts The crisis over Iran’s seizure of a South Korean ship looks close to resolution. Chung’s and Moon’s focus on Pyongyang will devour energies that could have been spent on cementing Seoul’s global status. Long an enthusiast for free trade agreements (FTAs), which have bipartisan support, Seoul is readying to join the region’s two mega-FTAs.


Significance Seoul anticipates a North Korean delegation of 400-500 people, including not only athletes but also reporters, observers and officials. Impacts Pyongyang's Olympic olive branch is a major tactical change, but it is premature to see it as a strategic shift. Military talks will address the cross-border security implications of Pyongyang joining the Games, but probably not broader issues. South Korea's president will try to extend the Olympic thaw into other spheres, but wider engagement will prove tricky. The US president is supportive, claiming credit for the breakthrough, but Washington may see further South Korean concessions as excessive.


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