Technology import substitution fits wider Russian aims

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Food Imports

Subject Russian import substitution for machinery and equipment. Significance In response to sectoral sanctions imposed by the United States and EU since 2014, the Russian government has pursued an economy-wide import substitution programme to encourage local development and production of technologies. The policy will be sustained because no end to Western sanctions is in sight, and it fits the government's broader aim of encouraging competitive hi-tech industries and -- for political as well as economic reasons -- making Russia less dependent on more advanced economies as well as on its own oil and gas sector. Impacts The government's commitment to fiscal discipline will restrict funding to projects with verifiable future payback. Spare capacity in the hi-tech defence sector will be turned towards non-military production, probably beyond 2020. Import substitution necessitated by Russia's 2014 ban on certain food imports have spurred crop diversification and growth in farming.

Russian grain exports will rise as farming prospers

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Genetically Modified Food ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Agriculture ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Bounce Back ◽  
The Eu

Subject Optimistic outlook for Russian agriculture. Significance Russia is set to overtake Canada and the United States to become the world's largest grain exporter this year, and some forecasters are predicting even higher levels. Moscow has extended its embargo on food imports until the end of 2016, although a recent thaw in relations with Turkey should revive fruit, vegetable and dairy imports from that country. Russian agriculture has performed well, boosted by an import substitution programme. Impacts If the EU lifts sanctions in January 2017, Russia may reciprocate, but food imports will not bounce back to their former scale. Russian food exporters will seek new markets and build export terminals to serve them. Moscow will be a bastion against genetically modified food products.

EU is unlikely to change course on Russia sanctions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The Eu

Significance The sanctions, reviewed on a semi-annual basis, have now been extended until January 2018, despite speculation about divisions within the EU. This comes after the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 38 individuals, companies and organisations on June 20. Impacts Russia is likely to continue efforts to sow divisions within the EU and between the EU and the United States. Future oil prices will shape Russia’s ability to weather sanctions. Russia may raise capital through bond sales and by turning to Asian investors, although this may not fully offset the effects of sanctions. Russia’s counter-sanctions -- a ban on food imports from the EU -- have led to some successful agricultural import substitution.

Latin America food exports to Gulf will expand further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adoption Of Innovations ◽  
Total Food ◽  
Food Imports

Significance The GCC imports around 85% of the food its member countries consume domestically, and the share of Latin American products as a proportion of the GCC’s total food imports has increased from 10% in 2015 to almost 14% in 2019. Impacts Pandemic-induced adoption of innovations such as e-commerce will provide opportunities to expand food exports. Post-pandemic recovery in tourism may eventually boost the GCC’s need for food imports. Growth in other markets will be crucial to help reduce LAC’s dependence on key markets such as China and the United States.

Extractives transparency gathers pace in the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Financial Transfers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Developments on transparency in the extractives sector. Significance Transparency legislation on the extractives sector progressed in December 2015 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission published a revised proposal to enhance the transparency of extractive (ie, mining and oil and gas) industries' payments to governments in producing countries. The aim is to provide information on financial transfers which can then be used by civil society, media and other stakeholders to hold those governments to account. The United States was a pioneer in this area, but litigation against its original initiative delayed its progress. Impacts Low commodity prices shift the balance of power from producing countries to consuming ones. That makes producer countries more susceptible to pressures for reform and may be a good time to push for greater transparency. However, opaque and inaccessible power structures in producer states could still limit NGO capacity to use more data to reduce corruption. A test of this will be whether the issue of resource transparency gains traction within the G20.

Russian import substitution will struggle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Import Substitution ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
State Control ◽  
State Monitoring ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Key Policy

Subject Russia import substitution. Significance The Kremlin proclaimed last year that replacing imports with domestic production was to be a key policy objective in the face of Western sanctions. However, the newly-created Russian government Commission on Import-Substitution held its first meeting only on August 11. Just how the commission will promote import-substitution remains unclear but the risk of a significant increase in state micro-management of industry is elevated. Impacts Import-substitution provides, in principle, a supply-side boost to the Russian economy. It reduces competition for established Russian firms when potential new Russian businesses face barriers to market entry. Incentives for efficiency will be reduced. Implementation of import-substitution policies requires increased state monitoring and micro-intervention. In a hyper-patriotically charged political atmosphere, ideas for a radical increase in state control of the economy may gain more traction.

Intra-elite rivalries shape Algerian economic policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Fall

Significance The statement comes against a move by Bouteflika to undercut an effort by Ouyahia to promote privatisation as part of a strategy for dealing with the sharp fall in oil and gas revenue, which has saddled the country with large fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits. Bouteflika’s intervention took the form of a decree stating that his office must have the final say on the sale of any state asset. It was issued within days of Ouyahia announcing a new privatisation policy. Impacts There is a risk that the combination of supply restrictions and loose monetary policy will drive up inflation. The import ban will attract foreign investors to import substitution projects, but they will be loath to put in much capital and technology. Checking Ouyahia’s ambitions is an important element in the plans for Bouteflika’s circle to prolong their grip on power.

There is no easy solution to Cuba’s fuel challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Capacity ◽  
Major Producer

Subject Cuba's energy troubles. Significance With a previously generous Venezuela facing economic crisis and the United States tightening sanctions, Cuba’s ability to augment its limited domestic oil and gas production is severely constrained. It lacks the export earnings to invest in new technologies and power generating capacity that could ease its fuel supply problems. Russia and China have spoken of offering assistance, but neither is inclined to provide handouts in the absence of commercial returns. Impacts Cuba has tried to trade more with Algeria and Angola but remains vulnerable to international oil price shifts. As a major producer of both sugar and biofuels, Brazil could provide a model for Cuba’s biofuel plans. Cubans are resilient and accustomed to hardship; the country’s looming economic troubles are unlikely to trigger serious unrest.

Low energy prices could delay US net exporter shift

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Close Analysis

Significance The EIA generated a wave of headlines with its projection in January’s Annual Energy Outlook that the United States would likely become a net energy exporter sometime in the middle of the 2020s. It would mark a major reversal for the country’s energy fortunes and would have major ramifications for existing global energy flows and US energy policy. However, the projections warrant close analysis and a healthy dose of scepticism. Impacts Becoming a net energy exporter would help the United States drastically cut its trade deficit and strengthen the dollar. US security commitments to energy-producing Gulf countries would continue, to encourage broader market stability. New pipeline infrastructure will be needed to expand US oil and gas export capacity.

Sonatrach chief plans to shake up the Algerian company

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Energy Company ◽  
Energy Politics ◽  
The Face ◽  
October 17

Subject Energy politics in Algeria. Significance The CEO of state-owned energy company Sonatrach, Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour on October 17 said during an oil and gas conference in London that Algeria would move away from from oil-indexed, long-term contracts and towards more flexible terms. Since he took the helm in March, the head of Sonatrach has called for radical changes in the way the national oil and gas corporation operates, in the face of the fall in global energy prices. Ould Kaddour has made it clear he thinks the corporation is weighed down by bureaucracy and lacks strategic vision. Impacts Foreign companies are likely to welcome Ould Kaddour’s initiative, but will be wary of the political ramifications. Sonatrach’s priority will be to maintain or increase market share against more competition from Russia, Australia and the United States. Ould Kaddour may not have enough time to deliver results; turnover of senior personnel in Sonatrach over the past few years has been rapid.

US actions raise agricultural trade costs globally

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The Eu

Significance US President Donald Trump last month targeted Canada’s supply management system for dairy, poultry and eggs as an example of unfair restrictions on agricultural exports to that country. Meanwhile, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, the largest US farm export markets, are imposing retaliatory measures on key agricultural and food imports from the United States in response to US tariffs on steel, aluminium and Chinese manufactured goods. Impacts The tariffs will disrupt agricultural markets, trade and supply chains globally, and commodity price volatility will increase. Food security and price stability worries will rise and may spark a vicious circle of more restrictions and interventions by governments. Chinese retaliation is targeting US agricultural and processed food exports, affecting activity in ‘swing’ states ahead of the elections.

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