Russian import substitution will struggle
Subject Russia import substitution. Significance The Kremlin proclaimed last year that replacing imports with domestic production was to be a key policy objective in the face of Western sanctions. However, the newly-created Russian government Commission on Import-Substitution held its first meeting only on August 11. Just how the commission will promote import-substitution remains unclear but the risk of a significant increase in state micro-management of industry is elevated. Impacts Import-substitution provides, in principle, a supply-side boost to the Russian economy. It reduces competition for established Russian firms when potential new Russian businesses face barriers to market entry. Incentives for efficiency will be reduced. Implementation of import-substitution policies requires increased state monitoring and micro-intervention. In a hyper-patriotically charged political atmosphere, ideas for a radical increase in state control of the economy may gain more traction.