South Sudan peace talks may fail to bridge reality gap

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Local Level ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Content Type

Significance A ‘framework agreement’ reached between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar in Khartoum on June 27 had been billed as a breakthrough in efforts to end South Sudan’s four-and-a-half-year civil war, but progress since then has been mired by infighting, especially around power-sharing formulas. Impacts Sudan and Uganda’s involvement as ‘guarantors’ could constrain would-be spoilers but will be deeply divisive. The several dozen other armed factions will fight to secure their place at the table. Already-dire humanitarian conditions will worsen without local-level security improvements.

Kiir-Machar talks will not solve South Sudan conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation formula which failed to produce a sustainable deal. Impacts The conflict’s humanitarian toll will continue to rise, with famine risks a recurring concern. Rebel fragmentation and supply constraints mean the government will retain the military advantage if conflict continues. Focus on power-sharing ratios will distract attention from more fundamental issues of governance and reform.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

South Sudan peace deal faces trust deficit

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Issues

Significance Power-sharing has been highly contentious and a compromise between the two main factions marks a major breakthrough. However, the deal has not been formally signed, key issues remain unresolved and some opposition stakeholders have rejected the proposal. Impacts Sudan’s hope of renewed oil payments and Uganda’s of renewed export earnings will see both pressure the parties to uphold the deal. Continuing government arrests of domestic critics will undermine confidence. Economic recovery will be sluggish even in the best-case scenario.

South Sudan faces a rocky road to first elections

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Strength

Significance The current government’s mandate was meant to end this year. Instead, elections prescribed for 2021 have been delayed to 2023, ostensibly to allow more time to implement the 2018 peace agreement that ended the country’s civil war. Even with such a delay, the path to elections is likely to be littered with challenges. Impacts Few new opposition groups will consider forming political parties, as military strength is still viewed as the only viable route to power. Opposition groups may form alliances to boost their bargaining power, but talking with government is seen as more viable than toppling it. The post-election period will also be volatile, amid likely rejections of results or attempts to negotiate access to non-elected posts.

Ethiopia’s civil war may unravel regional geopolitics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance It has also seriously damaged Ethiopia’s international and regional political standing, weakening Addis Ababa’s position in the trilateral talks with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and creating new flashpoints along the Ethiopia-Sudan border, while triggering shifts in alliances that have effectively tilted the regional balance of power against Ethiopia. Impacts The government may consider dialogue with domestic political forces (other than the TPLF) to ease international and domestic pressure. Continued geopolitical jockeying between Sudan and Egypt, and Ethiopia and Eritrea, could ease regional pressure on South Sudan. Concern over the fallout from the Tigray conflict may also complicate Ethiopian relations with Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.

Unity will be elusive despite new South Sudan cabinet

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Local Level ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Positive Step

Significance It follows rebel leader Riek Machar's return to the capital and inauguration as vice-president on April 26. The TGNU's formation is central to the peace agreement signed in August last year, and is a positive step towards ending the civil war, which has resulted in over 50,000 civilian deaths. Impacts Civilians displaced by fighting will return to stable areas, but local-level disputes could drive new outflows in some regions. Oil output will increase if the Unity fields are re-opened, but the revenue benefits for Juba will be subdued due to low oil prices. The 12,000-strong UN peacekeeping force will prove insufficient to maintain security, especially in remote areas.

US rhetoric on South Sudan may prove hollow

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
The South ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
To Come

Subject US policy towards South Sudan Significance Senior US officials have recently taken a harder line with South Sudan’s leaders over the country’s civil war, having resolved that President Salva Kiir’s government is principally to blame for the ongoing conflict and the collapse of a 2015 peace deal. After two senior US officials visited Juba to make it clear that “a serious re-examination” of US policy was underway, the administration announced a new round of sanctions designations and more public condemnation. Washington has hinted that further pressure is to come, but the spike in rhetoric may be more indicative of frustration than of a new strategy. Impacts The HLRF is unlikely to rescue the peace agreement, setting the stage for more violence as the dry season approaches. The government’s already low levels of popular legitimacy will further erode amid conflict and economic decay. Absent US leadership, Europe and the UN are unlikely to forge new initiatives without a clear request from the region. Further US sanctions may bar US oil companies from entering the South Sudan market and deter other investors.

South Sudan's power-sharing deal is unlikely to last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Power-sharing deal is unlikely to last

South Sudan’s government will hinder aid efforts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Assistance ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Near Term

Significance South Sudan’s civil war is now in its fourth year, during which the intensity and extent of fighting has fluctuated. Despite the notional maintenance of the August 2015 peace agreement, security has deteriorated in the past year. The spread of violence has produced waves of displacement, with hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese fleeing to Uganda. Impacts The government’s fiscal position will not improve in the near term. Army units, as well as pro- and anti-government militias, will continue to be predatory towards aid. International assistance for South Sudan will overwhelmingly centre on humanitarian activities rather than longer-term development.

Flaws may undermine fragile South Sudan peace process

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Government

Significance The warring parties in September signed the latest in a string of peace deals to end five years of civil war. However, one month in, fighting continues and many are gloomy about the prospect of the deal holding. Impacts Implementation will be fraught with challenges and flashpoints, not least cantonment of armed forces and reintegration of rebel soldiers. Anger will grow among those who see the deal as yet another elite pact that fails to address the ‘root causes’ of conflict. Fragmented opposition forces will pose less of a threat to the government but leave large areas under the shifting control of local actors.

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