US-Russian treaty end will destabilise Europe

Significance Washington has previously accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Russia has responded angrily to Trump's announcement. As both countries consider intermediate-range missile programmes, Russia's arms development methods place it ahead; it reportedly has an operational missile. Impacts Complex and frosty US-Russia relations make concessions less feasible. German-US divisions will be exacerbated by a US withdrawal from INF. The prospect of US missile deployments will add a new dimension to populist opposition across Europe.

Significance The likely end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty will be an important marker in the decline of international stability and a particular blow to long-held assumptions about European security. It comes at a time when US-Russian dialogue has stalled and uncertainties about intentions and evolving technologies abound. Impacts The INF issue will feed Moscow's narrative about encirclement by hostile forces. Despite delays to arms programmes, Russia has proved adept at developing and adapting smaller missile types. President Donald Trump is unlikely to engage meaningfully with Russia on the detail of arms control.


Subject Uncertainty around the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. Significance The future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is in doubt as the US Congress considers plans to produce a new ground-launched intermediate-range missile in response to evidence of Russian violations. Active verification has lapsed, and the weapons covered by the treaty are in practice the hardest to distinguish from conventionally armed equivalents. A US congressional initiative to plan for an intermediate-range missile is meant to ensure Russian treaty compliance but Moscow's response is defiant. Impacts Moscow and Washington are focused on other foreign policy issues that may push the INF treaty to the back burner. The multiplication of missile variants makes it harder to tell whether a particular model breaches the INF treaty. Russia's military campaign in Syria has allowed it to test, under live conditions, missiles that could be adapted for ground launch.


2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (3) ◽  
pp. 631-634

On February 2, 2019, the United States formally notified Russia that it would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in six months and that, effective immediately, it was suspending its performance under the treaty in light of Russia's material breach. This decision came more than three months after the Trump administration indicated that the United States was planning to withdraw from the treaty.


Subject The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review. Significance President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace". Impacts US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities. Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more. If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.


Subject France’s foreign policy. Significance Following several speeches by President Emmanuel Macron on France’s international ambitions and priorities, a new strategic review was published on October 11, updating the 2013 White Book on defence and security. Nonetheless, many questions remain around the implications of Macron’s new foreign policy agenda. Impacts Strategic bilateral relationships will be marked by toughness and pragmatism, as is the case in Macron’s personal relations with Trump. France’s position in the EU -- ambitious but often lonely -- and the Brexit negotiations will be a priority for the government. The 2019-24 military procurement programming law will allocate financial means and indicate which of Macron’s ambitions may be realistic. The modernisation of France's nuclear forces will put additional pressure on the defence budget.


2015 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 621-631
Author(s):  
Alan Burnell O'Neill ◽  
Ritchie Bent

Purpose – Developing capable and competent executives remains a critical and ongoing challenge for many organisations due to the ever changing landscape of the global business environment. Traditional executive development methods in artificial, once removed “classroom” type environments do not prepare executives sufficiently with the experience and insights needed to handle the complexities and uncertainties that befall them in the current volatile business environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the development of senior executives in a more real-world and authentic manner, that a leading Asia-based conglomerate has developed a senior executive “peer-to-peer” learning approach that brings together chief executives and senior managers from a number of businesses so they can share and learn from each other. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents by way of a narrative description an alternative approach to classroom-based executive development. The paper looks at some of the limitations of more traditional executive development methods by contrasting these with a peer-to-peer learning framework that has been used successfully over the last 12 years. It outlines the why, what and how to implement a peer-to-peer learning practice based on transorganisational development (TD) practices to facilitate individual and organisational change. Findings – Getting senior executives out of the “classroom” and in front of executives from other businesses and organisations in a real-world peer-to-peer learning environment, exposes “participants” to a more credible, grounded and authentic development opportunity, that is difficult to replicate with more traditional methods. The diversity of delegates and companies that engage in this approach enable “participants” to explore new ideas and to confront, in very direct ways, their predispositions to repeat well-learned institutional responses which may have helped them succeed in the past. Originality/value – Although much of the literature on TD focuses predominately on the initiation, planning and implementation of system or organisation wide change, little has been written to emphasise how TD makes a viable contribution to the understanding of the processes of change at an individual level. By highlighting this the authors intend to make the relationship more explicit, thereby opening up prospects for TD’s wider use in the field senior executive development.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Berliner ◽  
Jake Hecla ◽  
Michael Bondin ◽  
Austin Mullen ◽  
Kelsey Amundson ◽  
...  

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.


Subject Russian nuclear forces Significance Maintaining a powerful nuclear arsenal is one of Russia's main goals. Such weapons are seen as a counter-weight to US military power, NATO and China. Despite the country's growing economic problems, Russia's defence budget was increased to 87.83 billion dollars in 2013 from 2012's 81.07 billion dollars, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Nuclear capability is also regarded as a deterrent to Western military interventions in regional conflicts such as Ukraine and Georgia, and as a means to support Russia's claim to be a global power. According to the latest exchange of information on each side's nuclear warheads, Russia has for the first time more deployed nuclear warheads than the United States. However, Washington has more strategic delivery vehicles such as long-range ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. Impacts Russia is modernising nuclear delivery systems but overall numbers are down as older systems are retired faster than they can be replaced. Prospects for another arms control agreement in the next few years are low. Russia will push for creating an independent arms industry so it is not reliant on foreign suppliers.


Subject Upgrading the US nuclear arsenal. Significance The United States is undertaking the most comprehensive modernisation of its nuclear forces since the 1970s and 1980s. Over the next ten years, annual US spending on nuclear weapons is projected to increase from about 15 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars per year to upgrade the three legs of the US nuclear arsenal: land-based missiles, submarine-based missiles and strategic bombers. This recapitalisation is considered necessary to sustain deterrence against growing strategic threats from Russia and China and regional nuclear threats from North Korea, but will entail trade-offs among other military assets far more likely to be used in any conflict. Impacts Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine and eastern Europe will strengthen the hands of pro-nuclear lobbies in Washington. Greater nuclear spending will increase the drive to find savings in military personnel costs. By shifting pensions to retirement savings accounts, it will increase the attractiveness of the military as a mid-career employment option.


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