US Congress will seek greater foreign policy control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Damage Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Control ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance The resolution was a Democratic attempt at damage control after comments by a newly elected caucus member that were perceived as anti-Semitic: the party fears being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ before 2020’s elections. This resolution is the latest move in a brewing congressional battle over the Boycott-Divest-Sanction movement, which brings together several US anti-Israel groups. The rallying cry for this issue is the proposed Israel Anti-Boycott Act, which has 292 co-sponsors in the House and 58 in the Senate. Impacts The White House will resist congressional efforts to limit the president’s foreign policy powers. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be agreed but could be delayed for final changes. Congress will seek a greater role on US North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran policy. US-Russia policy will be a sticking point between the Democrats and Trump White House.

Disagreement possible over pace of Myanmar-US policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
Generalized System ◽  
Generalized System Of Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
Policy Engagement

Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

US Congress will leave Trump nuclear authority intact

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
North East ◽  
The Us ◽  
Carry Over

Significance The standoff with North Korea has led the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on the president’s authority to order a nuclear first strike. This is the first such formal examination of the executive branch’s nuclear prerogatives and procedures by Congress since 1976. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration is planning on upgrades to the US arsenal to boost Washington’s ability to wage a nuclear war and has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with North Korea in its public remarks. Impacts The probable US deployment of new tactical nuclear weapons will not carry over to delegating attack authority to commanders in a crisis. Chinese and Russian anti-access/area-denial systems may trigger more US reliance on nuclear deterrence in the Baltics and North-east Asia. Improved weapons technology convincing policymakers that first strikes are prudent pose greater risks than unbalanced political leadership.

Papal visit is part of Cuba's international opening

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
State Institution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
International Financial Institution ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Paris Club

Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.

UK effort to engage EU on Russia may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The statement is tougher than expected, and the EU also recalled its Moscow ambassador for consultations. The EU's shift is a win for UK Prime Minister Theresa May as she attempts to build a multilateral consensus rather than relying solely on unilateral retaliation. Impacts EU sectoral and individual sanctions on Russia will be extended in July and September despite reluctance among some members. Talk of blocking Russian natural gas imports is impracticable. The US Congress will pressure the White House to target individuals identified in January 2018 'oligarch list'.

Puerto Rico will enact deep fiscal cuts after default

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Control Board ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Virgin Islands ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The University

Significance The missed payment marks the island’s second default of 2017 after missing payments in January. The federal fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress has given the indebted Puerto Rican government until February 28 to formulate new budget proposals for the next two years and a ten-year fiscal plan. The control board also extended a temporary stay on creditor litigation to May 1. Impacts A public health or migration crisis involving Puerto Rico’s US citizens would present the White House with political difficulties. Holders of bonds from the highly indebted US Virgin Islands will watch congressional action on Puerto Rico closely. Cuts to employee benefits and tuition increases at the University of Puerto Rico are likely to spark protests.

Saudi Arabia and the Iranian Nuclear Deal

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Pasha
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Spheres Of Influence ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us

The signing of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5 + 1 countries (i.e., China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) heralds a new US foreign policy approach in the Middle East. Amidst growing signs of declining geopolitical influence in the region, the United States chose to end its three-decade-old tension with Iran. This has alarmed its traditional regional allies and partners, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia. While Israel had advocated a “military option” to stop Iranian nuclear ambitions and took the matters to the US Congress, Saudi Arabia preferred a less confrontationist approach due to its dependence upon the United States for security. Its reactions and the recent foreign policy choices underscore its anxiety over growing Iranian influence as well as its “interventionist” policy stoking instability in many Gulf and Arab states. In foreseeable future, both Saudi Arabia and Iran would have work for rapprochement and be content with their spheres of influence and continue depending on the United States to maintain stability and balance of power in the region.

US-Russian arms treaty is at risk but not dead

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Intermediate Range ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Treaty Compliance ◽  
Military Campaign

Subject Uncertainty around the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. Significance The future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is in doubt as the US Congress considers plans to produce a new ground-launched intermediate-range missile in response to evidence of Russian violations. Active verification has lapsed, and the weapons covered by the treaty are in practice the hardest to distinguish from conventionally armed equivalents. A US congressional initiative to plan for an intermediate-range missile is meant to ensure Russian treaty compliance but Moscow's response is defiant. Impacts Moscow and Washington are focused on other foreign policy issues that may push the INF treaty to the back burner. The multiplication of missile variants makes it harder to tell whether a particular model breaches the INF treaty. Russia's military campaign in Syria has allowed it to test, under live conditions, missiles that could be adapted for ground launch.

New sanctions will return US-Russia ties to old ire

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Policy Tool

Significance The White House has indicated that President Donald Trump will sign the legislation authorising the new measures, despite the fact it limits presidential discretion to waive the sanctions as an instrument of US foreign policy. Congress overwhelmingly voted in favour of the bill, which expands sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia. Impacts Mulled US plans to provide arms to Ukraine would spur a more hostile line from Moscow towards Trump if carried out. There are few voices in Washington advocating an activist approach to European firms’ minor dealings with Russia. The bill’s focus on past grievances, rather than clear changes in behaviour sought, will hinder its effectiveness as a policy tool.

US Congress will challenge deterrence strategy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Significance Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used. Impacts Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability. The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps. Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects. Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities. Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.

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