Russian economic planners face investment squeeze

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
The Government

Significance Forecasts of modest GDP growth next year assume a recovery in domestic investment, driven primarily by government spending to deliver a six-year growth and development strategy. Impacts Rising yields on government debt next year may disrupt plans for new issuance. Higher bond yields will add to pressure to raise interest rates. Restricted public borrowing will reduce funds available for public investment. The government is promising more rigorous methods for quantifying strategic goals, but only by end-2019.

Transformation of the Ecuadorian financial system: regulation and response

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luisa Ana Unda ◽  
Julie Margret
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Motivating Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose – The aim of this study is to analyse the transformation of the Ecuadorian financial system using the regulatory dialectic approach (Kane, 1977). This research examines the initial conditions and motivating factors of the reform process, as well as the interplay between government and bankers during the period 2007-2012. Design/methodology/approach – Kane’s regulatory dialectic suggests that regulation of financial institutions is a series of cyclical interactions between opposing political and economic forces. Three main stages are identified: thesis (measures and regulatory actions), antithesis (avoidance/lobby against those reforms) and synthesis (adaptive reregulation resulting from the interaction between interest groups). Findings – Since 2007, the government focused on regulating interest rates, developing a liquidity fund for banking emergencies, increasing taxation and restricting international capital flows. These government initiatives took place against a background of conflicting interests. Private bankers opposed the majority regarding them as burdensome new rules, rather than enlightened reforms. Publicly, these reforms as intended by the government were seemingly supported. Finally through the political process, they were approved. To date, these reforms have strengthened the financial system, produced encouraging social policy results and placed the financial sector to serve the government’s development strategy. Originality/value – Using Kane’s notion of regulatory dialectic, we explain the process of financial reform in Ecuador as part of a cyclical interaction between opposing forces. Drawing on this framework enabled insight into the nature of government intervention. Hence, we show how that intervention affected the growth, development and structure of the banking system.

Investment will be key for continuing Polish growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Government

Subject The second phase of the government's reform agenda. Significance The closing months of 2016 promise to be busy as the government pushes several pieces of legislation through parliament, in line with election promises. These include the long-awaited bill on converting foreign-currency mortgages denominated in Swiss francs and a revised budget for 2017. Impacts The fiscal deficit is likely to be contained within the EU's 3% limit in 2016-17 but rise beyond that threshold in 2018. Until infrastructure-led investment takes effect, low interest rates and a strong labour market may help private consumption support growth. As more state-owned companies look to invest in ageing infrastructure, public investment will become a key growth driver after 2018.

The problems facing agricultural sector in Zanzibar and the prospects of Waqf-Muzar’ah-supply chain model

Humanomics ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Issa Salim Moh’d ◽  
Mustafa Omar Mohammed ◽  
Buerhan Saiti
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Models ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Supply Chain Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Clove Industry

Purpose This paper aims to identify the appropriate model to address the financial challenges in agricultural sector in Zanzibar. Since the middle of 1960, clove production has continually and significantly decreased because of some problems and challenges that include financial ones. The financial intermediaries such as banks, cooperatives and micro-enterprises provide micro-financing to the farmers with high interest rates along with collateral requirements. The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. Design/methodology/approach The authors will review and examine several existing financial models, identify the issues and challenges of the current financial models and propose an appropriate Islamic financing model. Findings The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. This study, therefore, proposed a Waqf-Muzara’ah-supply chain model to address the financial challenge. Partnership arrangement is also suggested in the model to mitigate the issues of high interest rates and collateral that constrains the financial ability of the farmers and their agricultural output. Originality/value The contribution of the agricultural sector to the economic development of Zanzibar Islands is considerable. As one of the important agricultural sectors, the clove industry was the economic backbone of the government of Zanzibar. This study is believed to be a pioneering work; hence, it is the first study that investigates empirically the challenges facing the clove industry in Zanzibar.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Wagner’s law and governments’ functions: granularity matters

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 446-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Jalles
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the responses of different categories of government spending to changes in economic activity. In other words, the authors empirically revisit the validation of the Wagner’s law in a sample of 61 advanced and emerging market economies between 1995 and 2015. Design/methodology/approach The authors do so via panel data instrumental variables and time-series SUR approaches. Findings Evidence from panel data analyses show that the Wagner’s law seems more prevalent in advanced economies and when countries are growing above potential. However, such result depends on the government spending category under scrutiny and the functional form used. Country-specific analysis revealed relatively more cases satisfying Wagner’s proposition within the emerging markets sample. The authors also found evidence of counter-cyclicality in several spending items. All in all, the Wagner’s regularity seems more the exception than the norm. Originality/value While in the literature on the size of the public sector with respect to a country’s level of economic development has received much attention, the authors make several novel contributions: since some economists criticized Wagner’s law because of ambiguity of the measurement of government expenditure (Musgrave, 1969), instead of looking at aggregate public expenditures, the authors go much more granular into the different functions of government (to this end, the authors use the Classification of Functions of the Government nomenclature). The authors check the validity of the Law via an instrumental variable approach in a panel setting; after that, the authors take into account the phase of the business cycle using a new filtering technique to compute potential GDP (output gap); then, the authors cross-check the baseline results by considering alternative functional form specifications of the Law; and finally, the authors look at individual countries one at the time via SUR analysis.

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

New government in Guyana will face challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Consensus Building ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Tension ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.

German shift on austerity would risk 'wrong' lessons

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Spots ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
The Government

Significance Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a rising tide of euro-area members in favour of a policy shift away from austerity and possibly towards more favourable debt deals for euro-area black spots. Adding to the pressure for change, her own voters may prefer a slower pace of debt reduction: German government debt has already been falling as a percentage of GDP -- from over 80% in 2010 to under 77% at the end of 2014 -- and debt is starting to fall in absolute terms as well. The government has delivered enough stabilisation (ie, austerity) and growth to tame the 2009-10 debt surge and maintain its AAA credit rating, but is now over-achieving in terms of its own tough targets because the greater-than-expected fall in debt interest costs is pushing the budget into surplus. Some modest spending adjustments look likely to curb this windfall surplus, yet many will argue that more could be done to re-energise the sluggish economy -- and boost the euro-area. Impacts The plummeting euro will provoke another rise in German exports (already near 50% of GDP) and tensions over Germany's bulging trade surplus. While a fiscal stimulus and/or higher wage payments could address these tensions and raise imports, there is no sign of such action. Germany's critics are gathering support to end austerity, to the point of ignoring the risks of deficit financing and reneging on debts. Ultra-low German bond yields, encouraged by the prospective supply fall, are dragging down euro-area yields, delivering wider benefits.

Monetary easing may quicken in Brazil this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Government

Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.

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