New Zealand’s economy looks positive in uncertain 2019

Significance The RBNZ’s no-change stance reflects major world central banks’ recent retreat from tightening. While current New Zealand economic growth is firm, the RBNZ and the government are concerned about the slowing global economy and potential disruption from Brexit and the US-China trade standoff. Impacts To strengthen commercial banks’ resilience, the RBNZ may double tier one capital reserves requirements; tier two could go. Robertson’s second budget on May 30 will further the “wellbeing” agenda, widening criteria for assessing government management. The wellbeing criteria will include assessing environmental, human and social capital. Wellington wants a New Zealand-UK free trade deal post-Brexit, but this will depend on the UK-EU withdrawal deal’s detail.

Significance International trade uncertainty was a factor in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s August 7 decision to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (twice the market forecast). The RBNZ has downgraded its GDP and employment forecasts, but growth was reasonable in the first quarter and unemployment fell to an eleven-year low in the second. However, the bank is concerned about the US-China trade conflict and is mindful of loosening monetary policy in line with its international peers, to prevent New Zealand’s dollar from becoming over-valued. Impacts The RBNZ may raise capital holding requirements for commercial banks, after a review aiming to strengthen banks. Bank depositors will be protected under a forthcoming new bank deposit protection scheme. New Zealand’s government will push quickly to conclude a free trade deal with the United Kingdom post-Brexit.


Subject Mexican development banks. Significance Mexican foreign trade financing bank Banco de Comercio Exterior de Mexico (Bancomext) has signed several cooperation agreements this year in Asia and Europe, in an effort to diversify trade and investment relationships. The push comes amid great uncertainty in the global economy and increased tensions in the US-Mexico relationship since the election of US President Donald Trump. Impacts Bancomext's efforts to increase export opportunities will especially benefit smaller Mexican firms. Foreign financial institutions will welcome opportunities to strengthen access to Latin America’s second-largest economy. Strong loan growth by development banks will not threaten commercial banks as the two sectors work together.


Significance The government in New Zealand, where the market is particularly buoyant, was the first to react in February. It now requires the Reserve Bank to consider house prices when setting monetary policy. Other governments and central banks have shown little sign of following suit. Impacts Calls are rising for the US Federal Reserve to taper its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, but it will remain cautious. Rising financial stability risks and house price booms increase the risk of insolvency for borrowers and non-performing-loans for banks. Higher house prices add indirectly to consumer price inflation if they push up rents, but this link takes time to materialise.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Jiang ◽  
Chengke Wu ◽  
Xiang Lei ◽  
Ammar Shemery ◽  
Keith D. Hampson ◽  
...  

PurposeThe government plays a critical role in driving building information modeling (BIM) implementation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the government efforts for driving BIM implementation in three benchmark countries, namely, Singapore, the UK and the US, so as to develop appropriate roadmaps for increasing BIM implementations in other countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study performs a review on the government efforts and roles in BIM implementation in three benchmark countries, namely, Singapore, the UK and the US.FindingsThrough cross comparison with existing literature, it is found that Singapore and the UK adopt a government-driven approach and a phase-by-phase development pattern is observed. The first phase focuses on the building sector to rapidly increase the use of BIM and the government generally plays the role of an initiator. In the second phase, BIM is expanded to other implementation areas, e.g. smart city. The importance of the initiator role decreases and more attention is paid to supporting roles such as researcher, educator and regulator. In contrast, an industry-driven approach is adopted in the US. The main role of the government is that of a regulator, with research institutions actively supporting the BIM implementation.Research limitations/implicationsGeneral roadmaps of the two mandating approaches are presented. The results can provide a useful reference for countries and regions that intend to develop roadmaps to increase their BIM maturity level and enhance readiness to accept and implement BIM.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first studies that investigate the step-by-step roadmaps for implementing BIM from the perspective of changing government roles.


Significance Manama is gradually rolling back some of the reforms to limit the power of the security forces that were put in place after the post-2011 Arab uprisings. The government has been emboldened by Saudi backing and by its security alliance with key Western powers. The new US administration’s more confrontational policy towards Iran’s regional role, which has been echoed by the UK government, could strengthen that alliance. Impacts The strategic importance to Washington of its military presence in Bahrain will rise as tensions with Iran increase. Spillover from US and Saudi confrontations with Iran in Yemen or Gulf shipping lanes could affect Bahrain’s internal stability. Iranian-linked Shia militant groups such as Saraya al-Ashtar or Saraya al-Mukhtar may escalate hostilities. The US and UK governments will seek to increase base security, but could also quietly pressure Manama to make concessions to the Shia.


Subject Central banks’ policy dilemmas. Significance The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) remains extremely reluctant to raise interest rates despite increasing pressure on the forint. While growth in the euro-area is likely to remain weak this year, strengthening the case for rates to remain on hold, a more supportive external environment, underpinned by an easing of US-China trade tensions, would accentuate the policy dilemmas confronting Central Europe’s central banks, especially given rises in inflation. Impacts Germany’s still-negative ten-year bond yield has risen from record lows in September as markets become less pessimistic about global growth. Markets expect Hungarian monetary policy to remain very dovish, as the domestic twelve-month bond-yield’s end-October turn negative shows. The US S&P 500 index surged by nearly 30% last year and if US-China trade tensions ease slightly this should help it to maintain momentum.


Significance Spending on infrastructure and populist social policies signed into law ahead of the May midterm elections are putting pressure on the Philippine budget. Impacts More expensive social policies are likely before the 2022 presidential election. Further taxes will likely prompt popular protests targeting the government. The US-China trade conflict and changing Chinese consumption patterns could further dampen exports. A rice tariff law signed into law last month will likely boost agricultural imports. The widening trade deficit will put downward pressure on the peso and upward pressure on interest rates.


2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cardow ◽  
William Robert Wilson

Purpose This paper aims to highlight the reasons for the establishment of savings banks in New Zealand, with a primary thesis being that savings banks in New Zealand were intended to operate in a similar way to those in the UK. That is, to provide banking services to the working classes and supply revenue to a cash-strapped government. Savings banks were reasonably successful in meeting the needs of their depositors but provided little revenue to the government. This gives rise to a secondary thesis that, when the Government was presented with the opportunity to establish the Post Office Savings Bank (POSB), they did so with revenue in mind. Design/methodology/approach Contemporaneous scholarly discussion along with newspaper, primary sourced bank and government archives builds an interpretation of why savings banks were established in New Zealand. This interpretation is presented in the form of a narrative, which tells the story of the rise of private savings banks in New Zealand and their eventual stagnation when the POSB was introduced. Findings Savings banks in New Zealand were initiated by Governor Grey primarily to provide an alternative source of development funding. New Zealand savings banks, initially modelled on UK and New South Wales variants, also appear to have been designed to meet the needs of the working classes, with deposits limited to £50 a year and a maximum balance set of £100 in total. However, as the requirement to invest in Government debt was removed from their founding legislation, they mainly provided mortgages to their local communities. To some extent, this situation was remedied in 1867 when the POSB was established, as it was required to invest as directed by the Government. Originality/value The narrative highlights the importance of savings banks and the POSB to both the people and government of New Zealand. This research adds to the discussion surrounding the purpose of savings banks and details the contributions made by both savings banks and the POSB in colonial New Zealand. As previous publications were in the main commissioned by various savings banks, this work provides an independent academic analysis of the first savings banks in colonial New Zealand in the period from the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840 until New Zealand became a dominion in 1907.


Significance The dovish U-turns by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB, which were withdrawing monetary stimulus as recently as end-2018, are accentuating concerns that the leading central banks lack the firepower to fight the next recession. Creating confusion, global equity markets are surging but bond markets are growing more pessimistic. Impacts The Chinese equity market is surging as investors anticipate some form of US-China trade deal, but any boost is likely to be temporary. US equities have rebounded this year, but the outflows from US equity funds that began in October will continue and may rise amid anxiety. Chinese growth was slowing even before the tariffs and worries are rising that this, more than trade, will increasingly hit world growth.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 601-632
Author(s):  
Kuok Ho Daniel Tang

PurposeThis review compares the primary occupational safety and health (OSH) laws of the ASEAN members against the major provisions of the primary OSH laws of the United Kingdom (UK) and United States (US) grouped under the themes for OSH law adopted by the International Labour Organization (ILO).Design/methodology/approachThis review employs the 11 themes for OSH law adopted by the ILO as the basis of comparison. As the themes lack specificity in terms of their respective contents, specific facets of the themes are drawn from the review of the primary OSH laws of the UK and the US.FindingsThe review shows that primary OSH laws of the ASEAN members encompass the fundamental aspects of the ILO OSH themes particularly the regulatory framework, scope, roles of authorities, duties of employers and employees as well as safety inspection and enforcement. The review demonstrates a lack of provision of worksite consultation by the authorities, the emphasis on research, experiment and demonstration by the government as well as certain aspects of training.Practical implicationsOSH in many developing members of the ASEAN is still evolving to advocate the basic rights of employees, protect the safety of the public and ensure the welfare, safety and health of employees are upheld at workplaces. There is an obvious disparity in the coverage of the primary OSH laws of the nations, resulting in widely varied OSH implementation. This study contributes to advancement of the primary OSH laws in developing ASEAN members by highlighting areas of their primary OSH laws that can be improved. Improvement of the primary OSH laws is crucial to subsequent improvement and development of subsidiary laws to provide for adequate protection at workplaces.Originality/valueMost studies of OSH laws in the ASEAN are country-specific and often theme-specific. There is currently no study which compares the primary OSH laws of ASEAN nations using themes derived from the ILO as well as primary OSH laws of the UK and the US. This review is one of its kinds to use such an approach in providing a comparative overview of the primary OSH laws of all ASEAN nations.


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