Indonesian incumbent will likely win populism contest

Significance Both candidates are espousing populist policies. However, Jokowi currently leads in the opinion polls, ahead of the election on April 17. Impacts Indonesia will be on high alert for terrorist attacks in the run-up to April’s presidential and legislative elections. Social media will feature prominently in the polls, increasing the risk of misinformation. Several government entities will likely establish their own anti-corruption units. Military officers may increasingly occupy positions in the civilian bureaucracy.

Subject Counterterrorism policies. Significance The United Kingdom has been subjected to four deadly terrorist attacks in the first half of 2017. A car attack in Westminster in March left six people dead, an explosion at a concert in Manchester left 22 dead, while two more vehicular attacks in June left eight people dead in London Bridge and one person dead in Finsbury Park, London. This spike in successful attacks raises questions about the efficacy of the United Kingdom’s preventive measures against this type of extremism. Impacts ‘Local’ extremism will remain a threat while the strategies designed to reduce it are flawed. Cooperation with social media organisations could limit opportunities for like-minded extremists to plot violent acts. A greater focus on improving timely surveillance techniques may reduce the need for mass arrests following an attack.


Significance The regional elections are the last electoral test before the 2017 presidential and parliamentary polls. The apparent switchback in results reflects the fact that the FN is on the rise in the electorate overall, but is contained for now by political institutions and anti-FN voting. The two major terrorist attacks in 2015 have simultaneously increased popular fear and FN-friendly demands for security, and strengthened the legitimacy of France's republican order and thus the Hollande presidency. Impacts Mainstream elites may become freshly complacent over socio-economic conditions, although they may also see the FN vote as a 'last warning'. The FN may gain from staying out of office and attacking 'globalist' and 'cosmopolitan' elites, especially if they form an anti-FN front. Hollande and Valls could consider extending the state of emergency, although some on the left see this helping the FN. Owing to the state of emergency, Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian can stay in post while serving as Brittany's new leader. Local nationalists' win in Corsica may trigger a renewed debate on independence or increased autonomy for the island.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.


Significance A web of legal cases surrounding key opposition figures, as well as rejections of several opposition candidate lists, has turned the pre-election period into a multi-front political battle. These elections will be a key milestone in the run-up to July’s legislative elections and the 2024 presidential contest in which President Macky Sall may seek a third term. Impacts A flawed and violent election would add to growing concerns about Senegal’s democratic trajectory. An opposition victory in Dakar could potentially weaken Sall’s 2024 ambitions. Divisions within the ruling coalition may threaten Sall’s chances in the upcoming legislative and later presidential elections.


Subject Pre-election politics. Significance On July 19, the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) celebrated the 37th anniversary of the Nicaraguan Revolution. With presidential and legislative elections scheduled for November 6, their leader, President Daniel Ortega, is set to run for third consecutive term in office (his fourth in total). While the FSLN has a substantial lead in the opinion polls, however, concerns are running high around the integrity of the election process. Impacts The Ortega administration is likely to receive international criticism for its stance against election observers. Ortega is likely to announce more public spending in order to bolster domestic support. Rising tensions around the elections may contribute to an environment of increased criminality, especially in urban areas.


Subject Election preparations. Significance Honduras will hold presidential and legislative elections on November 26, selecting a new leader and 128 representatives for the one-chamber legislature. President Juan Orlando Hernandez looks set to win re-election, with opinion polls putting him 15 percentage points clear of his nearest rival, despite attempts by the opposition to capitalise on public concerns about institutional corruption and the Hernandez administration's commitment to anti-corruption efforts. Impacts With the presidential result almost certain, legislative results may be more decisive -- especially if the PN again fails to win a majority. Graft concerns will not deter a planned 2-billion-dollar investment in transport infrastructure, which will buoy Hernandez’s support. The US government has not yet commented on the electoral campaign in Honduras and may decide to remain distant until after the polls.


Subject Guyana election outlook. Significance In October, Guyana’s government announced that new legislative elections would be held on March 2, 2020. This follows a no-confidence vote in the government passed in December 2018, with the intervening months having been spent in legal wrangling over the requirements for an election. Setting a date as far off as March 2020 will spark outcry from the opposition, but efforts to bring the polls forward are unlikely to succeed. Impacts The elections will face international scrutiny given concerns voiced by the United States and EU about the delay. Non-oil investment is likely to slow in the run-up to elections as investors wait for the outcome. Legal challenges have undermined popular trust in the judiciary, raising longer-term questions around judicial selection and training.


Significance The situation has exposed several scandals, putting President Andry Rajoelina and his entourage on the political defensive. Social media has become a potent political weapon in the hands of ruling elites as a way to shape political narratives and discredit opponents. Impacts Rajoelina will struggle to hold together his circle of political allies in the run-up to the 2023 elections. Opposition groups will have difficulty capitalising on government divisions due to their own fragmentation. Social media will play an increasingly central role in driving political debate.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caitlyn Johnston ◽  
William E. Davis

In the present study, we examined how the influence of exercise-related social media content on exercise motivation might differ across content type (with images vs. without images) and account type (individual vs. corporate). Using a 2 × 2 within-subjects experimental design, 229 participants viewed a series of 40 actual social media posts across the four conditions (individual posts with images, corporate posts with images, individual posts without images, and corporate posts without images) in a randomized order. Participants rated the extent to which they felt each social media post motivated them to exercise, would motivate others to exercise, and was posted for extrinsic reasons. Participants also completed other measures of individual differences including their own exercise motivation. Posts with images from individuals were more motivating than posts with images from corporations; however, corporate posts without images were more motivating than posts without images from individuals. Participants expected others to be similarly motivated by the stimuli, and perceived corporate posts as having been posted for more extrinsic reasons than individuals’ posts. These findings enhance our understanding of how social media may be used to promote positive health behaviors.


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 833-845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngsu Lee ◽  
Joonhwan In ◽  
Seung Jun Lee

Purpose As social media platforms become increasingly popular among service firms, many US hospitals have been using social media as a means to improve their patients’ experiences. However, little research has explored the implications of social media use within a hospital context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a hospital’s customer engagement through social media and its association with customers’ experiential quality. Also, this study examines the role of a hospital’s service characteristics, which could shape the nature of the interactions between patients and the hospital. Design/methodology/approach Data from 669 hospitals with complete experiential quality and demographic data were collected from multiple sources of secondary data, including the rankings of social media friendly hospitals, the Hospital Compare database, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) cost report, the CMS impact file, the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society Analytics database and the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. Specifically, the authors designed the instrumental variable estimate to address the endogeneity issue. Findings The empirical results suggest a positive association between a hospital’s social media engagement and experiential quality. For hospitals with a high level of service sophistication, the association between online engagement and experiential quality becomes more salient. For hospitals offering various services, offline engagement is a critical predictor of experiential quality. Research limitations/implications A hospital with more complex services should make efforts to engage customers through social media for better patient experiences. The sample is selected from databases in the US, and the databases are cross-sectional in nature. Practical implications Not all hospitals may be better off improving the patient experience by engaging customers through social media. Therefore, practitioners should exercise caution in applying the study’s results to other contexts and in making causal inferences. Originality/value The current study delineates customer engagement through social media into online and offline customer engagement. This study is based on the theory of customer engagement and reflects the development of mobile technology. Moreover, this research may be considered as pioneering in that it considers the key characteristics of a hospital’s service operations (i.e., service complexity) when discovering the link between customers’ engagement through a hospital’s social media and experiential quality.


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