Kuwaiti opposition will fight attempts to limit power

Significance This comes ahead of by-elections on March 16 for two parliamentary seats vacated by opposition MPs after a court sentenced them to prison time for a crime of which they had previously been acquitted. Kuwait is the only Gulf state with a politically active parliament, and the cross-party opposition holds a narrow majority. However, the judiciary has become increasingly aligned with the interests of executive power, particularly following the protests of 2011, in its attempts to curtail the influence of the 65-member National Assembly. Impacts If voters choose loyalist candidates it will likely reflect a desire for stability at a time of perceived uncertainty elsewhere in the Gulf. The opposition bloc in parliament, even if reduced to a minority, will still attempt to obstruct the government by interpellating ministers. Legislation to replace the Constitutional Court with a more parliament-friendly body will probably fail.

Significance After accentuated rule-of-law erosion during 2017-19, the new government encouraged hopes that such violations would become a thing of the past. However, last month, the government sacked the ombudsman, while the Constitutional Court declared void a judgement of the EU Court of Justice (CJEU) defending judicial independence. Impacts Recent developments erode hopes that last month’s positive CVM report will lead to Romania’s Schengen zone accession later this year. Failure to replace the ombudsman will not affect the coalition parties electorally, given the politicisation of rule-of-law issues. Subnational courts will be left confused whether to apply the Constitutional Court or the CJEU ruling to legal disciplinary cases.


Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.


Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.


Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.


Significance Tunisia will hold legislative and presidential elections on October 6 and November 10, respectively. On June 18, parliament passed an amendment to electoral law barring individuals who use their media or other organisations for campaigning from running for office. Karoui was the frontrunner to win the presidency in a June 12 opinion poll published by Sigma Conseil, but will be prevented from running if the law enters force. He owns Nessma TV, which has been critical of the government, as well as a charitable organisation. This makes the amendment look as though it is targeting individuals who could threaten the major parties’ control of government. Impacts Tunisia may have set a precedent for preventing media personalities or wealthy populists from using their influence to become politicians. The ruling coalition may lose support if it is seen to be manipulating the electoral process to ensure victory. This case highlights the urgency of establishing a constitutional court to protect Tunisia’s democratic transition and consolidation.


Subject Prospects for a presidential third term and the upcoming local and legislative elections. Significance Legislative and municipal elections due towards the end of this year will be a significant political test for both the government and President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, just one year before the crucial 2019 presidential contest. Despite his denials of any ambition to stand for a third term, there is a widespread expectation that Abdelaziz will seek to remain in office. However, that would mean scrapping the current two-term limit -- a constitutional change that would require a two-thirds majority in the national assembly. Change could provoke protests at home and criticism from Western allies. Impacts The main lines of policy on the economy, the extractives sector and public services would be unlikely to change under a new president. The IMF’s December 2017 decision to approve a new three-year programme provides a stable framework for investors. The regime will crack down hard on any large public street protest that appears likely to gather momentum.


Significance The approval of the deal aligns parliament with the government against the judiciary. After a series of legal challenges, the Supreme Administrative Court ruled in January that the agreement was void. The case has been referred to the Supreme Constitutional Court, which has not yet ruled on the issue. The islands’ transfer has exposed a rift between Sisi and senior judges and threatens the latter's autonomy. Impacts State security forces will be prepared to deal with any protests against the islands deal. There may be small, isolated demonstrations, which police will almost certainly crush before they develop momentum. Implementation of the deal will consolidate Sisi’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. Sisi is also showing some frustration with the religious establishment, which has so far maintained its relative autonomy.


Significance The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) thus captured 18 of Venezuela’s 23 state governorships in regional elections held October 15 with an increase in its share of the vote relative to the 2012 governor elections and the 2015 National Assembly elections. The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) won five states -- up from three in 2012. Despite questions over the transparency of the electoral process, the opposition ran a poor campaign. Impacts The results are a serious setback for the fractious MUD, whose future as a unified opposition alliance looks uncertain. The PSUV will now feel confident in moving ahead with municipal and presidential elections. Absent concrete evidence of fraud, a hostile international response, including possible EU sanctions, will further entrench the government.


Kybernetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Xu ◽  
Guowei Dou ◽  
Yugang Yu

Purpose Considering the cross-market network externality, this paper aims to explore the platform’s pricing decisions and its optimal profit under the given government investment, and then investigate the investment decision to improve social responsibility, which is measured by the social welfare. Design/methodology/approach When exploring the optimal pricing decisions under the given government investment, extreme value theory and sensitive analysis are used. When investigating the investment level, game theory and optimization method are used. Numerical examples are conducted to further illustrate the results. Findings First, after considering the government investment, whether the buyers and the sellers are charged depends on the investment level and the difference of the cross-market network externality (CNC) of the sellers and the buyers. Second, the optimal price on the sellers is decreasing (increasing) in the CNC of the buyers (sellers). The optimal price on the buyers is significantly affected by the investment level. Finally, the government investment is win-win for both the platform and the government, and Chinese Government should invest on the sellers heavily. Originality/value This study specifies the role of the government investment on the sellers in determining the platform’s pricing decisions and the improvement of the social responsibility, which is measured by social welfare.


Significance The impact of the pandemic and especially lower oil prices hit the government budget hard, since more than nine-tenths of revenue comes from oil sales. However, the country also faces longer-term structural challenges that undermine project implementation. Impacts The emir will seek to avoid fresh elections, which could bring an even more obstructionist National Assembly. Tensions with parliament will prevent consideration of measures such as an excise tax on harmful products or a Gulf-agreed value-added tax. The government will resist legislative pressure to scale down generous foreign aid, seen as an important source of global soft power. The authorities could approach various government entities for dividend transfers to push back the risk of a liquidity crunch.


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