Prospects for Central Europe in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
West European

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2020. Significance While continuing to outperform their West European peers in 2020, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will show increasing signs of succumbing to the effects of the sharp German-led industrial downturn in the euro-area. However, monetary policy across the region will remain firmly on hold (with the possible exception of the Czech Republic), as CEB economies continue to enjoy strong wage growth, particularly Hungary and Estonia.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing in 2017-18, the outlook for GDP growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will be shaped by several political milestones, notably Poland’s general election and Brexit, while softer economic conditions in the euro-area will test the resilience of the region’s export-dependent economies.

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in growth while expecting the contraction to bring down core inflation rates later this year. Impacts PMI surveys for Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic show persistent expectations of contraction. The Commission expects Czech GDP to contract this year by 7.75%, the pandemic disrupting foreign demand for export-oriented manufacturing. Hungarian GDP is to shrink by 7% with labour market deterioration curbing household consumption and falling exports hurting the auto sector. Contraction in Poland’s resilient and diversified economy by just 4.5% in 2020 is forecast to be the least-bad in the EU. Hungary’s mixed record in handling of the crisis could put the ruling Fidesz party’s position at risk.

Prospects for Central Europe in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing since 2014, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will experience more modest rates of GDP growth. A mix of base effects, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is expected to drive this trend, but domestic demand and public investment will remain key supports to GDP.

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

Overheating may tighten Central Europe monetary policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Capital Outflows

Significance The meetings are expected to provide forward guidance on monetary policy. With consumer prices reaching a five-and-a-half year high in Hungary and a seven-month high in the Czech Republic, attention has turned to the future trajectory of Central European (CE) interest rates. Tightening would run against the populist streak of governments in both Prague and Budapest. Impacts Rate hikes in the Czech Republic and eventually also in Hungary by mid-2019 may contribute to a broad-based slowdown in growth next year. Tighter rates may moderate the headline inflation rate in January-June 2019, partly offsetting the negative impact of economic overheating. CE currencies may gradually strengthen, helping to shield against excessive capital outflows, as global liquidity conditions tighten. Some monetary policy divergence is likely within CE, as Poland’s central bank is unlikely to push for higher interest rates before end-2019.

scholarly journals A Model for the Designing of Multimodal Transport Processes and the Concept of Its Integration with the EPLOS System

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-295
Author(s):  
Mariusz Wasiak ◽  
Paweł Leleń ◽  
Michał Kłodawski ◽  
Mariusz Izdebski ◽  
Ilona Jacyna-Gołda
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Reliable Information ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Multimodal Transport ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Many Sources ◽  
Main Barrier

The paper proposes a new single criterion mathematical model for the designing of multimodal transport processes by taking into account the cargo’s susceptibility and the concept of its inclusion into the EPLOS system, which is done as part of the EUREKA initiative. This system will integrate the data from logistics sources and transport and logistics infrastructure from many sources. In the first phase of its implementation, it will cover the Czech Republic, Poland, and the Baltic States. Using the EPLOS system integrating data from various sources needed to solve this problem is a proposal to overcome the main barrier to the effective planning of multimodal transport processes – a lack of reliable information.

scholarly journals On the Effects of InterSector Productivity Growth Differences on Sectorial Inflation in the Baltic States Relative to the Euro Area

Ekonomika ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Bukevičiūtė
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Growth Pattern ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
New Member States ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
Growth Differences ◽  
The Baltic

The ability of the Baltic States to damp the growth of inflation might partly depend on the scale of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect. In recent years, inflation was lower in the Baltic States as compared to the beginning of the transition period. This raises the question whether the BS impact on inflation is still relevant. Based on an empirical assessment, this paper aims to provide some recent evidence concerning the productivity growth pattern in the tradable and non-tradable sectors in the new Member States vis-a-vis the euro area. Thus, the paper analyses whether the main assumptions in the Balassa-Samuelson effect of a higher growth of productivity in the tradable sector and a higher wage growth in the non-tradable sector have come true.

scholarly journals Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence – the Czech Perspective

2016 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Łukasz Goczek ◽  
Dagmara Mycielska
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost

In this article, we investigate the actual level of monetary policy independence in the Czech Republic. We formulate the research agenda in terms of the Euro Dominance Hypothesis. The situation of the non-euro EU countries with derogation in terms of joining the EMU, like the Czech Republic, is similar to the pre-euro situation of the euro area countries, in which the problem of the stability of the European Mechanism System was predominant. We investigate the co-movement of interest rates between the Czech Republic and the Eurozone to assess the potential costs of monetary integration. Using cointegration and VECM methods we show that the ECB monetary policy influences monetary policy in the Czech Republic and the actual level of monetary independence in the Czech Republic is much lower than it is presumed. Therefore, we argue that for the Czech Republic the cost of the joining the EMU will be lower than expected.

scholarly journals The Fiscal Compact and the European Constitutions: ‘Europe Speaking German’

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
LB ◽  
JHR
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Fiscal Compact

In between the writing of this editorial and the publication of this issue of EuConst, the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, in everyday parlance the ‘Fiscal Compact’, will have been signed by the representatives of the governments of the contracting parties — the member states of the European Union minus the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic. The Fiscal Compact is intended to foster budgetary discipline, to strengthen the coordination of economic policies and to improve the governance of the euro area.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document