Prospects for Central Europe in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing since 2014, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will experience more modest rates of GDP growth. A mix of base effects, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is expected to drive this trend, but domestic demand and public investment will remain key supports to GDP.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing in 2017-18, the outlook for GDP growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will be shaped by several political milestones, notably Poland’s general election and Brexit, while softer economic conditions in the euro-area will test the resilience of the region’s export-dependent economies.

Prospects for Central Europe in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
West European

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2020. Significance While continuing to outperform their West European peers in 2020, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will show increasing signs of succumbing to the effects of the sharp German-led industrial downturn in the euro-area. However, monetary policy across the region will remain firmly on hold (with the possible exception of the Czech Republic), as CEB economies continue to enjoy strong wage growth, particularly Hungary and Estonia.

Peruvian growth will again disappoint this year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Level ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
Roll Back

Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.

Russia will increase covert Baltic interference

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Lightning Strike ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Military Exercise

Significance In line with such concerns, Estonia held a large military exercise, Hedgehog, on May 4-15, involving 13,000 troops. On May 6, Lithuania launched Lightning Strike, a military exercise involving 3,000 troops in a simulated defence of the country's new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Klaipeda. In December, Latvia said Russian submarines had approached its maritime borders more than 50 times in the past year. However, Russia's more overt activities also pose a major risk to the Baltics. Impacts Russian intelligence will continue to target not just Baltic secrets but, through them, NATO and EU ones. Russian operations will aim to create division by playing on discontent within sizeable ethnic Russian minorities who feel marginalised. NATO will increase the rate and size of Baltic drills to reassure the Baltic states.

Gloomy sentiment will spur stimulus in South Korea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
Korean Economy

Significance The recent fall in the price of oil was expected to provide a timely boost to the South Korean economy, but its performance in the first quarter of 2015, though rebounding from the previous quarter, has been below expectations. Beset by slowing exports and weak domestic demand, the mood in both the business and household sectors is downbeat. Impacts Absent a sustained growth rebound (or some kind of foreign policy breakthrough), Park's presidency will be seen as a failure. Deflation could threaten South Korea if there is no adjustment to monetary policy. An FTA with China will boost South Korean exports only in the longer term. The sharp depreciation of the euro will make Europe a challenging market for South Korea for now.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Monetary easing may quicken in Brazil this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Government

Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.

Economic reform will falter with new Turkish cabinet

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Financial Difficulties

Significance Presenting his government's programme on November 25, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu promised to keep his election campaign pledges, complete major infrastructure projects, maintain fiscal stability and implement structural change. Impacts Domestic demand will strengthen in the short term. However, firms in labour intensive sectors may face financial difficulties, and new job creation may be slow. Currency and capital markets are likely to remain volatile and overreact to trends in monetary policy and the current account. Opportunities exist for those investors able to tap into the government's priorities and avoid political risks.

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