Jaish-e-Mohammed will lead Pakistani jihadism for now

Subject The terrorist threat posed by Jaish-e-Mohammed. Significance The Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant group is stepping up its operations in Kashmir, over which Pakistan and India dispute sovereignty while administering different parts. JeM is at the same time increasing its presence in Afghanistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), also Pakistan-based, has in recent years been the more active militant group in Kashmir and Afghanistan, due to a privileged relationship with Pakistan’s military-security establishment (which denies ties to militancy). Impacts JeM’s relations with militant groups that oppose the Pakistani state, such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, will worsen. If JeM’s role in Pakistani jihadism is curtailed, the group will increasingly complain to the military about lack of support. JeM will struggle to maintain its commitments on the Afghan front as its tries to expand its role in Kashmir.

Subject Civilian-military relationship. Significance In an apparently unprecedented and coordinated governmental move, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in parliament reportedly warned the military of growing international isolation faced by Pakistan due to its failure to suppress cross-border militant groups operating out of Pakistan. That the serious concern was shared publicly at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are rising is unusually bold for Pakistan's politicians. Such warnings have been given previously, reportedly by former President Asif Ali Zardari's government (2008-13), but always in private. Impacts Kashmir's 'jihadi infrastructure' will not be dismantled any time soon. Beijing and Washington are united in pressuring Pakistan's military to avoid escalation with India. Pakistan military's Afghan policy is unlikely to be amended.


Subject Pakistan's relationship with Laskhar-e-Taiba. Significance The intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force (FATF) at a plenary meeting last week decided to keep Pakistan on its ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions which have weak measures against terrorist financing, although it acknowledged the progress it has made in improving safeguards. As part of its attempts to come off the grey list, Pakistan has jailed Hafiz Saeed, leader of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant group. Pakistan’s politically powerful military has long leveraged LeT as a proxy. Impacts Some Pakistan-based militant groups may begin targeting the Pakistani state if deprived of outlets in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Islamabad is unlikely to be taken off the FATF grey list after the body’s next plenary meeting in June, but it may be later in the year. Pakistan will face immense external criticism if there are signs of the military tightening rather than loosening relations with militants.


Significance Separately, the recent Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was a strategic win, given the military-security establishment’s long-standing support for the group. The Taliban’s 'Haqqani network' is now attempting to mediate peace between Islamabad and the Pakistani Taliban Movement (TTP), long an enemy of the Pakistani state.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Elbassoussy

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify various Russian manifestations on expanding its role in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as shed light on the major obstacles it may face. Design/methodology/approach The research paper uses the “national role theory” to analyze the factors that helped in the growing Russian role in sub-Saharan African countries. It assumes that every state seeks to play a particular role, and that role is reflected in its foreign policy, which is known as “role performance,” and this role originates from several sources. On the other hand, this role faces various obstacles, mostly from the external environment, especially the international system’s structure, global values and international obligations, known as “role prescriptions.” Findings Despite Russia’s ability to use all its capacities in expanding its role in the African continent, the degree of its influence varied from one field to another. While it was very influential in the military, security, political, diplomatic and technical fields, it is relatively less in the economic and counter-terrorism areas. Research limitations/implications This study paves the way for further researches related to international competition over sub-Saharan Africa, whether economically, militarily or politically, in addition to other studies related to potential cooperation opportunities, especially in security and combating terrorism. Originality/value This research’s significance stems from using the existing theoretical structure represented in national role theory in analyzing the Russian orientation toward sub-Saharan Africa, giving more attention to the latest developments in Russian strategy, as well as clarifying the major obstacles that may hinder its activities.


2013 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-175
Author(s):  
Jos Monballyu

Over de motieven waarom Belgische militairen tijdens de Eerste Wereldoorlog naar de Duitse vijand deserteerden is al veel geschreven. Volgens de Franstalige patriottische pers en literatuur van kort na de Eerste Wereldoorlog was die desertie uitsluitend te wijten aan de defaitistische ingesteldheid van de Vlaamse Frontbeweging en de talrijke aansporingen waarmee hun vier afgezanten naar de Duitsers (Jules Charpentier, Karel De Schaepdrijver, Vital Haesaert en Carlos Van Sante) de Vlaamse soldaten aan het IJzerfront bestookten. De Vlaamse historici probeerden die beschuldiging op allerlei manieren te weerleggen of schoven de verantwoordelijkheid voor die desertie in de schoenen van Antoon Pira en zijn Algemeen Vlaamsch Democratische Verbond. Geen enkele historicus ging daarbij na wat de deserteurs zelf over hun desertie naar de vijand te vertellen hadden. Dit deden zij nochtans uitvoerig tijdens de verschillende gerechtelijke ondervragingen waaraan zij na de oorlog werden onderworpen wanneer zij konden worden aangehouden. Het feit dat zij daarbij al strafbaar waren van zodra zij wetens en willens deserteerden ongeacht hun eigenlijke motief, liet hen daarbij toe om dit motief vrij complexloos mee te delen. Geen enkele van de overlopers van wie het strafdossier bewaard is, gaf echter toe dat hij omwille van de Vlaamse kwestie was overgelopen. Oorlogsmoeheid en de behoefte om zijn familieleden terug te zien waren, zoals in alle legers, de voornaamste motieven waarom zij naar de vijand deserteerden. Ook de Belgische Militaire Veiligheid en de krijgsauditeurs slaagden er trouwens niet in om een verband te leggen tussen de Vlaamse Frontbeweging en de Belgische deserties naar de vijand.________Desertion to the enemy in the Belgian front army during the First World War (part 2)Much has already been written about the reasons why Belgian soldiers deserted to the German enemy during the First World War. According to the French language patriotic press and literature dating from shortly after the First World War that desertion was exclusively due to the defeatist attitude of the Flemish Front Movement and the many exhortations with which their four representatives to the Germans (Jules Charpentier, Karel De Schaepdrijver, Vital Haesaert and Carlos Van Sante) bombarded the Flemish soldiers at the Yser Front. Flemish historians attempted in a variety of ways to refute that accusation or they shifted the responsibility for the desertion on to Antoon Pira and his Algemeen Vlaamsch Democratische Verbond (General Flemish Democratic Union). Not a single historian investigated what the deserters themselves had to say about their desertion to the enemy. However, the deserters gave extensive explanations during the detailed investigation that took place during the various judicial interrogations, to which they were submitted after the war if it was possible to arrest them. The fact that they were considered to have committed a criminal offence for having knowingly deserted whatever their actual motive, allowed them to communicate this motive without too many complexes. However, none of the defectors whose criminal records have been preserved admitted that he had defected for the sake of the Flemish Question.  As is the case in all armies, the main reasons for desertion to the enemy were war-weariness and the longing to see members of their family. The Belgian Military Security and the military auditors were not able either to establish a causal link between the Flemish Front Movement and the Belgian desertions to the enemy.


Author(s):  
Arash Kiyoumarsi ◽  
Abolfazl Nazari ◽  
Mohammad Ataei ◽  
Hamid Khademhosseini Beheshti ◽  
Rahmat‐Allah Hooshmand

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a 3D finite element model of the electromagnetic fields in an AC three‐phase electric arc furnace (EAF). The model includes the electrodes, arcs, and molten bath.Design/methodology/approachThe electromagnetic field in terms of time in AC arc is also modeled, utilizing a 3D finite element method (3D FEM). The arc is supposed to be an electro‐thermal unit with electrical power as input and thermal power as output. The average Joule power, calculated during the transient electromagnetic analysis of the AC arc furnace, can be used as a thermal source for the thermal analysis of the inner part of furnace. Then, by attention to different mechanisms of heat transfer in the furnace (convection and radiation from arc to bath, radiation from arc to the inner part of furnace and radiation from the bath to the sidewall and roof panel of the furnace), the temperature distribution in different parts of the furnace is calculated. The thermal model consists of the roof and sidewall panels, electrodes, bath, refractory, and arc. The thermal problem is solved in the steady state for the furnace without slag and with different depths of slag.FindingsCurrent density, voltage and magnetic field intensity in the arcs, molten bath and electrodes are predicted as a result of applying the three‐phase AC voltages to the EAF. The temperature distribution in different parts of the furnace is also evaluated as a result of the electromagnetic field analysis.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper considers an ideal condition for the AC arc. Non‐linearity of the arc during the melting, which leads to power quality disturbances, is not considered. In most prior researches on the electrical arc furnace, a non‐linear circuit model is usually used for calculation of power quality phenomena distributions. In this paper, the FEM is used instead of non‐linear circuits, and calculated voltage and current densities in the linear arc model. The FEM results directly depend on the physical properties considered for the arc.Originality/valueSteady‐state arc shapes, based on the Bowman model, are used to calculate and evaluate the geometry of the arc in a real and practical three‐phase AC arc furnace. A new approach to modeling AC arcs is developed, assuming that the instantaneous geometry of the AC arc at any time is constant and is similar to the geometry of a DC arc with the root mean square value of the current waveform of the AC arc. A time‐stepping 3D FEM is utilized to calculate the electromagnetic field in the AC arc as a function of time.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


Author(s):  
Vincent Durac ◽  
Francesco Cavatorta

2021 ◽  
pp. 120-126
Author(s):  
Mykhailo Tsiurupa

The time limits of the life of one generation are about 25-30 years, so lived in the struggle for building its own state and its armed defence, this time for Ukraine goes down in the history of the first generation of creation and attempts to comply with four military doctrines (1993-2004-2012-2015), in which our own defence course was proclaimed. The theoretical basis of these official documents of significance were certain paradigms of military-political thinking, according to which Ukraine did not consider it a continuation of politics. The direction and principles of military policy (defence or security policy in European terminology) for modern Ukraine from the mid-20s of the XIX century, as well as 100 years ago, again came to the fore in connection with the implementation of previously abstract concepts " annexation "," occupation "," war ", which allegedly did not exist for our country in recent history. But today they have been embodied or, in the image of Franz Kafka, "reincarnated" into threatening forms of Russia's military practice against our state, the end of which is not yet visible in the near future. The military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of militarypolitical thinking. The main thesis is the belief that the protection of sovereignty and strengthening of military security is the military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of military-political thinking. The main thesis is the belief that the protection of sovereignty and strengthening of military security is the creation of a "comprehensive defence system" with the integration of all forces of the state and civil society, law enforcement agencies and volunteers, administrative regions and territorial communities. The military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of military-political thinking. We will prove that this is a philosophy of military security instead of the previously expressed doctrinal military-political ideas of entrusting a matter of national importance to the forces of the defence sector. The new generation of public life Ukraine will begin with a new paradigm of militarypolitical thinking, the central idea of which is the transition from hopes for the political levers of defence for international cooperation to the creation of a system of comprehensive national security with the synergistic potential of Ukrainianity.


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