Tunisian lawmakers will likely back next cabinet list

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Majority Vote ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Law Making ◽  
Legislative Election

Significance Saied made the appeal after the previous prime minister-designate, Habib Jemli, resigned on January 12, following parliament’s rejection of his proposed cabinet line-up. Lawmakers had questioned the extent to which the candidates were politically independent and suitably qualified. Under the constitution, the president is now tasked with leading consultations before picking the next nominee for the premiership as the country remains without a permanent government, three months after October’s legislative election. Impacts Law-making and reforms will remain on hold for several weeks or even months. Ennahda’s failure to secure a majority vote may incentivise smaller parties to coalesce to control the agenda. Civil society activists will take comfort from the fact that the process, albeit tortuous, is strictly following constitutional frameworks.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Cambodian rapprochement to continue uneasily, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Official Corruption

Subject Cambodia's 'culture of dialogue'. Significance Interior minister and deputy prime minister Sar Kheng, of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), will meet opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) co-leader Sam Rainsy on October 1 after a similar September 23 meeting. Publicly, such meetings, notionally to discuss forthcoming legislation, characterise the 'culture of dialogue' between the CPP and CNRP. However, the July imprisonment of opposition-linked activists, passage of a controversial civil society law and the August arrest of an opposition senator, raise concerns about the robustness of the rapprochement. Impacts The opposition will focus on sensitive popular issues to gain support, including official corruption and judiciary politicisation. The CPP will use the security forces and judicial apparatus to constrain its opponents. Limitations to civil society freedoms could stoke local unrest over land and human rights.

Pakistan’s Khan will not challenge military's power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Military influence in Pakistan. Significance Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa earlier this month visited Beijing to reassure China about Pakistan’s commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s military strongly influences the country’s policy. It is widely believed that Prime Minister Imran Khan had the military’s support in winning the July general election. Impacts Any meeting between Khan and US President Donald Trump is likely to be uncomfortable, further straining Pakistan-US ties. Pakistan will strongly defend its commitment to CPEC. The state will increase harassment of political opponents and civil society critics.

Lebanon protests risk destabilising fragile status quo

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
War Effort ◽  
The Face

Significance Uncollected waste has been piling up in the capital since the country's largest landfill closed on July 17. Prime Minister Tammam Salam has threatened to resign over the crisis, which has also seen mass protests organised by civil society groups. The protests raise questions over Lebanon's resilience in the face of domestic political paralysis and regional turmoil. Impacts Protest escalation could force resignation of prime minister or individual ministers, and throw Lebanon into a constitutional crisis. Destabilisation of the state could encourage Sunni militants to seek to control areas in Tripoli, the north and the Beka'a Valley. Turmoil in Lebanon could distract Hezbollah from its war effort in Syria, thereby weakening Syrian regime's territorial control. A political crisis in Lebanon would heighten regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Malaysian opposition grouping unlikely to oust Najib

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Cooperative measures among Malaysian opposition parties and civil society groups. Significance A grouping of opposition critics of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has announced a series of 'roadshow' protests including a public 'Save Malaysia' protest meeting on March 28, to be attended by various leading political figures. This follows the March 4 signing of the Citizens' Declaration, the latest challenge to Najib and his government in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) controversy. Impacts The government will probably permit protests for now, to gauge their degree of support. The Save Malaysia group will seek thousands of public signatories of the Declaration. Political proxy fighting at the state level could unnerve investors.

Reputational risk to Bangladesh government will grow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Human Rights Violations ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
Party Members

Subject Pressure on the Bangladesh government over its commitment to human rights. Significance The UN Committee Against Torture last month urged Bangladesh’s government to investigate allegations, which Dhaka denies, that the country’s law enforcement agencies torture detainees. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) has attracted criticism for its crackdown on political rivals and civil society activists, but it refutes suggestions of widespread human rights violations and corruption. Impacts The AL may consider a structured anti-corruption drive against businesses owned by party members. Hasina will aim to elicit greater diplomatic support for her government from long-standing ally India and increasingly key partner China. Bangladesh will likely step up its plan to relocate some Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char island, despite human rights concerns.

Malaysia security act could cause political friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance He was referring to the National Security Council Act (NSCA), which came into effect on August 1 after being passed in December 2015 without express royal assent. The government says the legislation is necessary to protect Malaysia amid increasing concerns over terrorism, particularly by Islamic State group (ISG), but critics argue that it gives the prime minister arbitrary powers that could be abused. Impacts The government will use the NSCA regardless of civil society criticisms, making protests possible. International perceptions that the NSCA is being abused would cause diplomatic trouble for Malaysia. The NSCA's utility could be dampened if political use continues to be made of Islam, as is likely.

Divisive Cambodian union bill will likely be passed

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Worker Support ◽  
Fair Wages

Subject Trade union legislation. Significance On April 4, the National Assembly will vote on a new trade union bill intended to promote smooth relations between workers and employers. However, unions, employers and international civil society organisations have repeatedly criticised the draft legislation; on March 15, several unions wrote to Prime Minister Hun Sen calling for more changes ahead of April's vote. Impacts Foreign firms using Cambodian manufacturers will push for fair wages, putting pressure on employers. Labour unrest could see investment pledges delayed, or sent to other countries. The opposition could gain further worker support if it boycotts the trade union law vote on April 4. Yet this would strain government-opposition rapprochement, undermining political stability and potentially seeing a backlash.

New Tunisian president may struggle to enact reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Law Making ◽  
Legislative Election

Significance The success of candidates outside the main political parties is also reflected in the legislative polls, where independents performed well and existing parties performed poorly, resulting in a fragmented political landscape with many parties holding few seats and many independents holding one seat. Impacts Ennahda has two months to form a coalition before the president asks another party to form a government. If no government is formed in four months, there may be another legislative election. Law-making and reforms will be put on hold as coalition-building and government forming will take precedence.

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