Lebanon protests risk destabilising fragile status quo

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
War Effort ◽  
The Face

Significance Uncollected waste has been piling up in the capital since the country's largest landfill closed on July 17. Prime Minister Tammam Salam has threatened to resign over the crisis, which has also seen mass protests organised by civil society groups. The protests raise questions over Lebanon's resilience in the face of domestic political paralysis and regional turmoil. Impacts Protest escalation could force resignation of prime minister or individual ministers, and throw Lebanon into a constitutional crisis. Destabilisation of the state could encourage Sunni militants to seek to control areas in Tripoli, the north and the Beka'a Valley. Turmoil in Lebanon could distract Hezbollah from its war effort in Syria, thereby weakening Syrian regime's territorial control. A political crisis in Lebanon would heighten regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Settler Farmers and Coerced African Labour in Southern Rhodesia, 1936–46

1992 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Johnson
Keyword(s):  
State Intervention ◽  
The State ◽  
The North ◽  
Cheap Labour ◽  
War Effort ◽  
The Face ◽  
Southern Rhodesia ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
Agrarian Crisis ◽  
Second World

This paper contributes to a growing body of literature on the socio-economic impact of the Second World War on Africa. The focus is on the inter-relationship between the state, settler farmers and African labour in Southern Rhodesia. The war presented an opportunity for undercapitalized European farmers to enlist state support in securing African labour that they could not obtain through market forces alone. Historically, these farmers depended heavily on a supply of cheap labour from the Native Reserves and from the colonies to the north, especially Nyasaland. But the opportunities for Africans to sell their labour in other sectors of the Southern Rhodesian economy and in the Union of South Africa, or to at least determine the timing and length of their entry into wage employment, meant that settler farmers seldom obtained an adequate supply of labour. Demands for increased food production, a wartime agrarian crisis and a diminished supply of external labour all combined to ensure that the state capitulated in the face of requests for Africans to be conscripted into working for Europeans as a contribution to the Imperial war effort. The resulting mobilization of thousands of African labourers under the Compulsory Native Labour Act (1942), which emerged as the prize of the farmers' campaign for coerced labour, corrects earlier scholarship on Southern Rhodesia which asserted that state intervention in securing labour supplies was of importance only up to the 1920s. The paper also shows that Africans did not remain passive before measures aimed at coercing them into producing value for settler farmers.

Pakistan’s Khan will not challenge military's power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Military influence in Pakistan. Significance Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa earlier this month visited Beijing to reassure China about Pakistan’s commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s military strongly influences the country’s policy. It is widely believed that Prime Minister Imran Khan had the military’s support in winning the July general election. Impacts Any meeting between Khan and US President Donald Trump is likely to be uncomfortable, further straining Pakistan-US ties. Pakistan will strongly defend its commitment to CPEC. The state will increase harassment of political opponents and civil society critics.

Lebanon will suffer from deeper Iran-Saudi conflict

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year

Significance An intense political crisis has emerged since Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned from his post in a televised speech from Saudi Arabia on November 4, one year after he was named premier and on the same day as a major purge of the Saudi political establishment (including some of his former allies). In an unusually belligerent speech, he cited as his motives an assassination threat, Iranian interference and the independent weapons capability of Shia party Hezbollah. Impacts A likely return to prolonged government paralysis will block reform plans and hurt the economy. With Hariri significantly weakened, Lebanon’s Sunni community will struggle to achieve political representation. Intensifying Saudi-Iranian tensions could find military expression, although this is more likely in Yemen than Lebanon. Israel will only be drawn in if Hezbollah directly attacks its interests, which is unlikely.

Malaysian opposition grouping unlikely to oust Najib

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Cooperative measures among Malaysian opposition parties and civil society groups. Significance A grouping of opposition critics of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has announced a series of 'roadshow' protests including a public 'Save Malaysia' protest meeting on March 28, to be attended by various leading political figures. This follows the March 4 signing of the Citizens' Declaration, the latest challenge to Najib and his government in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) controversy. Impacts The government will probably permit protests for now, to gauge their degree of support. The Save Malaysia group will seek thousands of public signatories of the Declaration. Political proxy fighting at the state level could unnerve investors.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Kazakh election raises questions about leadership

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Face ◽  
Territorial Rights

Significance The governing Nur Otan party won most seats and two tame allies were awarded a few. The importance of this election is that it offers pointers to how much power President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wields. None of his promises of political liberalisation has been realised and it is unclear how serious he is about change. Impacts Askar Mamin's reappointment as prime minister points to general continuity -- or stasis. Tokayev will defend Kazakh nationhood in the face of Russian politicians casting doubt on its territorial rights. Trends as regards civil liberties and freedom of expression are retrograde in both the real and virtual spheres. The OPEC+ bloc's special deal allowing Kazakh oil output to rise by 10,000 barrels per day in February-March offers some economic relief.

The Gray Zone of State-Insurgency Interface

2021 ◽  
pp. 69-99
Author(s):  
Rumela Sen
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Structural Violence ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The State ◽  
Gray Zone ◽  
War And Peace ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Civic Associations ◽  
The North ◽  
Police Action

This chapter emphasizes how the various steps in the process of disengagement from extremism are linked fundamentally to the nature of linkages between insurgency and society, thereby bringing civil society into the study of insurgency in a theoretically coherent way. In places where structural violence is pervasive and spectacular episodes of violence are also recurrent, this chapter shows how, from the perspective of local population, the conceptual lines between war and peace, legit and illicit, state and insurgency, lawful and lawless, crimes and political acts, police action and rebel resistance become blurred. Surrounded by violent specialists belonging to two warring sides, civilians in conflict zones learn to inhabit one foot in insurgency and one foot in the state, creating a sprawling gray zone of state-insurgency overlap. It is in these gray zones where grassroots civic associations nurture the first traces of informal exit networks, more successfully in the South than in the North.

Gulf to look beyond Pakistan as insecurity rises

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Outlook for Pakistan-Gulf relations. Significance Pakistan's parliament last month voted against joining the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. Since then Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif have visited Riyadh to clarify the decision, reassuring Saudi Arabia of Pakistan's support in case of any external aggression against the kingdom. The Yemen intervention has exposed some faultlines in the relationship between the two allies, as well as in Pakistan's ties with other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), some of whom -- most notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- described Pakistan's decision as "dangerous and unexpected". Impacts Pakistan will lose leverage in GCC states as the latter opt to provide aid via multilateral, international mechanisms. Islamabad will be reluctant to share nuclear technology with GCC states -- primarily for fear of provoking Washington. China will increasingly become Pakistan's preferred diplomatic and economic partner, despite a degree of mutual suspicion.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

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