Somalia's military manoeuvres raise regional risk

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Regional Risk

Significance The strongly worded statement came shortly after Somalia came in for criticism in the UN Security Council for deploying hundreds of troops to Jubaland’s Gedo region, near the border with Kenya, amid an ongoing battle for influence with Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, a Kenyan ally. Impacts Further unrest may undermine FGS support among Gedo clans, as violence and displacement of local communities take a toll. An FGS military offensive against opponents in Galmudug region will deepen fears of aggression elsewhere. Growing discord between Ethiopian, Kenyan and Somali forces will hamper the AU Mission in Somalia’s already difficult withdrawal plans. The FGS may try to leverage political divisions in north-east Kenya to increase pressure on Nairobi. Al-Shabaab may exploit the domestic political chaos to entrench its position further.

North Korea heads for economic crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
North East ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Domestic Instability ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of sanctions on North Korea's economy. Significance Successive UN Security Council resolutions over the past year impose the toughest sanctions North Korea has ever faced. If implemented thoroughly, the new sanctions will have much greater impact than earlier measures. The result will be to increase political risk in North-east Asia in the medium term (2018-20). Impacts North Korea's leadership will not even consider denuclearisation, seeing this as tantamount to collective suicide. The threat of domestic instability will push the elite to become more repressive at home. If political collapse or war looked imminent, China would switch back to quietly undermining the sanctions regime.

Eastern DRC security divisions will drive conflict

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Additional Pressure ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
General Elections ◽  
One Year

Significance The resulting reputational damage will heap additional pressure on the mission, which is grappling with an upsurge in violence in the eastern provinces. Its mandate was extended by one year by the UN Security Council on March 31. Impacts MONUSCO will be ineffective at containing violence during the upcoming general elections since its mandate is limited to eastern security. Use of surveillance drones, some operated by US military contractor Selex ES, will increase local communities' distrust of MONUSCO. Problems with MONUSCO could mar perceptions of other interventions, since it is considered a template for UN peacekeeping.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

WPS, States, and the National Action Plans

2018 ◽  
pp. 272-290
Author(s):  
Mirsad Miki Jacevic
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Action Plans ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Current State ◽  
Emerging Trends ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Peace And Security

Since 2005, UN Security Council Resolution 1325, national action plans (NAPs) have been tools for institutionalizing the women, peace, and security agenda. Yet, gaps remain between their promise and their capacity to facilitate safer, more stable local communities. Inclusive Security’s “high-impact NAP” methodology posits that these plans can only achieve this goal when inclusively designed, effectively monitored and evaluated, adequately resourced, and fully supported politically. Using this framework and illustrative country examples, this chapter reviews NAP progress and challenges to date. Specifically, this chapter provides a close examination of the effectiveness of NAPs in countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Iraq, and Japan. In doing so, it critically examines the current “state of the field” and emerging trends (e.g. localization), and offers concluding lessons learned in order to translate women, peace, and security commitments into action. This chapter argues that while NAPs face a number of limitations, they are nevertheless important policy and advocacy mechanisms as they strengthen institutional efforts for change.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

Tunisia’s leader will disrupt diplomatic establishment

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Action ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Political Appointees ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Harsh Criticism

Subject The Tunisian president's foreign policy agenda. Significance On February 7, President Kais Saied dramatically sacked Moncef Baati, Tunisia’s permanent representative at the UN. Baati had been sitting on the UN Security Council, where the country took up a seat last month, and was chairing its counter-terrorism committee. His dismissal, and the harsh criticism issued against him by the presidency, have alienated many civil servants. This carries risks for Saied, a retired law professor and political outsider, who as president is now solely responsible for determining foreign policy, on which he has some unconventional views, as well as ambitious goals. Impacts Civil servants are likely to obstruct or even actively sabotage initiatives by the presidency. Saied may seek to replace career diplomats with political appointees to bypass institutional resistance. Tunisia’s next UN ambassador will have little scope for autonomous action. Morocco will block Saied’s plans to initiate a regional dialogue over Western Sahara’s status.

Western Saharan frustration may trigger local violence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Security Council ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Sahara ◽  
Regional Conflict ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Legal Battle

Subject Progress on the Western Saharan conflict Significance The UN Security Council (UNSC) voted on April 28 to extend for another year the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). The force observes a ceasefire (since 1991) between Morocco and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara (the organisation recognised by the UN as representing Sahrawis). African Union (AU) demands to upgrade MINURSO's mandate to include human rights monitoring in the contested territory were rejected. Instead the watered down resolution calls on Morocco and the Polisario Front to "enter a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" in order to reach a political solution. Impacts Sahrawi activists backed by Algeria will wage a legal battle against international companies cooperating with Morocco in Western Sahara. Diplomatic tension and competition between Morocco and Algeria will intensify and complicate regional conflict resolution efforts. However, a direct military confrontation between Morocco and Algeria is unlikely. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCR) may become more active in monitoring human rights in Western Sahara. This could create tension between OHCR and Rabat, and raise scrutiny on firms seeking to invest in Western Sahara or import goods.

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