New Ukrainian cabinet raises fears of slowing reform

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The People ◽  
Obvious Reason ◽  
The Government

Subject Ukraine's reshuffle. Significance A new cabinet was unveiled on March 4 after the resignation of Prime Minister Olexiy Honcharuk. The reshuffle was carried out in a hurry with no obvious reason for such haste. Honcharuk's team is being blamed for some problems that long pre-date its five-month tenure. President Volodymyr Zelensky may be seeking to shore up his formerly sky-high popularity ratings, which fell below 50% in early February. Impacts The dismissal of Prosecutor General Ruslan Ryaboshabka will add to concerns about the commitment to fight corruption. The government reshuffle has more implications for the economy than for the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Zelensky has tried to get a land reform passed; he may be less keen if it is liable to reduce his popularity. The reshuffle may be a sacrifice made to maintain disparate loyalties in Zelensky's Servant of the People party. A further fall in inflation would let the central bank keep cutting interest rates.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Pandemic will take heavy economic toll in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Incentives ◽  
Second Year ◽  
The Government

Significance This has triggered a series of economic setbacks. The economy showed modest growth in the first quarter of 2020 before plummeting 15.7% in the second, year-on-year. Various industries and sectors have all but ground to a halt. Unemployment reached 20.3% in the second quarter. Impacts Fiscal incentives implemented by the government to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impacts will widen Colombia’s fiscal deficit. Interest rates will probably drop further as the Central Bank tries to add liquidity into the economy. Fiscal pressures imply a slow recovery for the economy in coming years, rolling back two decades of social improvements.

India’s Naxalite threat is much reduced

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Poll ◽  
The Government

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.

Ukraine hopes for lockdown-light recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance Since the initial lockdown of March-May 2020, the government has prioritised economic reopening. This has had some success: last year's GDP contraction was less severe than many feared, but COVID-19 infection rates have not spiralled out of control. Impacts If inflation accelerates rapidly, the central bank is likely to raise interest rates for the first time under this presidency. Further delays to IMF lending could force the government to negotiate a new agreement, but reform conditionality will still be key. Despite the latest evidence that the Russian Sputnik V vaccine is effective, Kyiv is likely to reject it.

Russian policy toolkit mixes rate rises and price caps

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Controls ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Personal Savings ◽  
The Government

Significance This is high enough to worry the Central Bank of Russia (CBR): inflation has hovered around 4%, the bank's target level, for the last four years. The CBR has responded with monetary tightening, and the government with price controls on food and some exported commodities. Impacts Rising domestic interest rates and higher global oil prices will support the ruble. Elevated inflationary expectations will discourage long-term investment and personal savings. Higher interest rates will improve banks' net interest income and support banking profitability in 2021.

Turkey's new central bank governor may loosen policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Significance Cetinkaya is an apparent compromise between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. The MPC cut the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points to 10%, leaving other rates unchanged. Financial markets welcomed the decision in the hope that Cetinkaya would avoid more radical rate cuts that could make the lira plummet and further endanger inflation targets. Impacts Policy rate cuts will have little impact on growth given other risks and factors, particularly external financial and economic conditions. No serious effort will be made to reduce inflation to 5%, until and unless this becomes a government priority. Given better dialogue between government and TCMB, blame for high interest rates may fall increasingly on commercial banks.

Interest rates will continue to rise in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
Income Transfer ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Significance The increase, the largest since 2002, comes despite low growth expectations and reflects concerns over rising inflation, with the Central Bank warning of a similar rate rise in December. Investors are concerned by governmental proposals to breach the public spending cap to pay for a new income transfer programme, Auxilio Brasil (Brazil Relief). Impacts Rising prices will fuel popular dissatisfaction with the government. Higher interest rates will affect both growth and debt prospects. The need to finance pre-election social assistance programmes will put investor sentiment at risk

Turkey's election will be plebiscite on Erdogan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Intelligence Service ◽  
Political Figure ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Early campaigning for the June 7 general election. Significance The election is turning into a plebiscite on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's highly personal style of government. At particular issue is whether he should be enabled to set up an executive presidency by winning the two-thirds majority in the next National Assembly that would allow constitutional changes. With no serious rivals inside or outside the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan's attempts to impose his political will regardless of consequences have triggered a slide in the value of the lira and a confrontation with the head of the country's intelligence service. Impacts Relations between Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are uneasy, but Davutoglu is unlikely to be changed before the elections. Erdogan seems to have called a truce with the Central Bank, but this appears not to extend to allowing it to raise interest rates. This reflects a certain underlying pragmatism to the president's outlook, provided he has advisers around him who dare warn him of dangers. Ocalan is now a pivotal political figure in Turkey as the government has made some sort of settlement with the Kurds a key goal.

The problems facing agricultural sector in Zanzibar and the prospects of Waqf-Muzar’ah-supply chain model

Humanomics ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Issa Salim Moh’d ◽  
Mustafa Omar Mohammed ◽  
Buerhan Saiti
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Models ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Supply Chain Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Clove Industry

Purpose This paper aims to identify the appropriate model to address the financial challenges in agricultural sector in Zanzibar. Since the middle of 1960, clove production has continually and significantly decreased because of some problems and challenges that include financial ones. The financial intermediaries such as banks, cooperatives and micro-enterprises provide micro-financing to the farmers with high interest rates along with collateral requirements. The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. Design/methodology/approach The authors will review and examine several existing financial models, identify the issues and challenges of the current financial models and propose an appropriate Islamic financing model. Findings The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. This study, therefore, proposed a Waqf-Muzara’ah-supply chain model to address the financial challenge. Partnership arrangement is also suggested in the model to mitigate the issues of high interest rates and collateral that constrains the financial ability of the farmers and their agricultural output. Originality/value The contribution of the agricultural sector to the economic development of Zanzibar Islands is considerable. As one of the important agricultural sectors, the clove industry was the economic backbone of the government of Zanzibar. This study is believed to be a pioneering work; hence, it is the first study that investigates empirically the challenges facing the clove industry in Zanzibar.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

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