COVID-19 will test East African unity

Significance However, it also faces a crisis moment as the COVID-19 pandemic tests regional bonds, exposes the bloc’s weaknesses and threatens to spill over into a wider regional political crisis. Impacts New non-tariff barriers adopted to curb the virus’s spread may have a lasting effect on intra-regional trade partnerships. Doubts over the bloc’s relevance on other political and economic issues will increase. Joint regional infrastructure projects will suffer amid political tensions and funding constraints.

Significance This may have a profound effect on East Africa’s two main regional blocs -- the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC). Impacts Trade tensions fuelled by incompatible COVID-19 strategies could ease after Burundi and Tanzania changed tack. Tanzanian re-engagement could help reinvigorate stalled regional infrastructure projects. Ethiopia may try to revive region-wide Nile Basin Initiative water talks, partly to isolate Egypt, partly to restore its own standing.


Subject President Francois Hollande's turnaround. Significance In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the presidency of Francois Hollande seems to have entered a new phase that many see as an opportunity to turn around what has been a very disappointing mandate so far. The national unity embodied by the historic gathering of January 11, where close to 4 million people took to the streets across France, has indeed partly translated into a 'January 11 spirit', reaffirming republican values of 'liberty, equality, fraternity'. This political momentum that the executive power has exploited skilfully is being sustained by an unexpected mix of positive economic developments in Europe, including the ECB's announcement that it will begin sovereign quantitative easing (QE) and the European Commission's more upbeat growth forecasts -- and in the oil market. Impacts The relative improvement of the economic prospects for France is unrelated to Hollande's actions. The structural political crisis remains as acute as ever, with the FN at a record standing in the polls. Economic issues are bound to become predominant again very quickly, once the phase of 'republican introspection' subsides.


Significance Opposition parties reject the new dates, stating that their main demand is for Nkurunziza to step down before polls take place. The new dates adhere to East African Community (EAC) recommendations to delay elections. While the regional bloc may have more influence over Burundi than other external players, it will struggle to play an effective diplomatic role in ending the political crisis. Impacts A prolonged crisis will worsen a poorly performing economy, which is heavily dependent on foreign support. Belgium, the largest donor, may cut further bilateral support should Nkurunziza secure a third mandate. Economic disruption continues to hurt agricultural supply chains across the country, risking food security.


Subject Implications if the EU and EAC fail to finalise a proposed trade deal. Significance Kenya is urging its East African Community (EAC) counterparts to resolve an impasse in signing an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU. The EPA was initialled by all parties in October 2014 and was due to be signed in July, but in the wake of 'Brexit', Tanzania and Uganda announced that they would not sign the EPA until further discussions and investigation had taken place. The countries have until October 1 to sign the agreement, otherwise existing trade deals with the EU will lapse. Impacts A collapse of the EPA process will weaken the EAC customs union, as member states will lack a common external tariff. Kenyan exporting firms could relocate to neighbouring states if access to EU markets is threatened. Without steps toward resolving Burundi's political crisis, the EU could withhold finalising any deal that affords benefits to Bujumbura.


Significance Relations had been openly hostile -- and the border between the two countries closed -- since late February until Presidents Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni agreed on August 21 to end the feud. Impacts The feud will accelerate ongoing shifts in regional trade dynamics, as both countries diversify away from bilateral trade. Bilateral competition will undermine efforts at deeper regional integration through the East African Community. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could suffer spillover effects, as both countries focus on armed opposition groups based there.


Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1102
Author(s):  
Georgios N. Aretoulis ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou ◽  
Fani Antoniou

Purpose This paper aims to rank and identify the most efficient project managers (PMs) based on personality traits, using Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) methodology. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology relies on the five personality traits. These were used as the selection criteria. A questionnaire survey among 82 experienced engineers was used to estimate the required weights per personality trait. A second two-part questionnaire survey aimed at recording the PMs profile and assess the performance of personality traits per PM. PMs with the most years of experience are selected to be ranked through Visual PROMETHEE. Findings The findings suggest that a competent PM is the one that scores low on the “Neuroticism” trait and high especially on the “Conscientiousness” trait. Research limitations/implications The research applied a psychometric test specifically designed for Greek people. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is based on the personality characteristics to rank the PMs and does not consider the technical skills. Furthermore, the type of project is not considered in the process of ranking PMs. Practical implications The findings could contribute in the selection of the best PM that maximizes the project team’s performance. Social implications Improved project team communication and collaboration leading to improved project performance through better communication and collaboration. This is an additional benefit for the society, especially in the delivery of public infrastructure projects. A lot of public infrastructure projects deviate largely as far as cost and schedule is concerned and this is an additional burden for public and society. Proper project management through efficient PMs would save people’s money and time. Originality/value Identification of the best PMbased on a combination of multicriteria decision-making and psychometric tests, which focus on personality traits.


2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 1422-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet Godsell ◽  
Donato Masi ◽  
Antonios Karatzas ◽  
Timothy Mark Brady

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the applicability and utility of supply chain (SC) segmentation through demand profiling to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of infrastructure projects by identifying different types of project demand profiles. Design/methodology/approach A three-stage abductive research design was adopted. Stage 1 explored the applicability of SC segmentation, through demand profiling, to the portfolio of infrastructure projects in a utility company. Stage 2 was an iterative process of “theory matching”, to the portfolio, programme and project management literature. In stage 3, theoretical saturation was reached and “theory suggestions” were made through four propositions. Findings Four propositions outline how SC segmentation through project demand profiling could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of infrastructure projects. P1: the ability to recognise the different demand profiles of individual projects, and groups thereof, is a portfolio management necessity. P2: projects that contribute to the strategic upgrade of a capital asset should be considered a potential programme of inter-related repeatable projects whose delivery would benefit from economies of repetition. P3: the greater the ability to identify different demand profiles of individual/groups of projects, the greater the delivery efficiency. P4: economies of repetition developed through efficient delivery of programmes of repeatable projects can foster greater efficiency in the delivery of innovative projects through economies of recombination. Originality/value This work fills a gap in the portfolio management literature, suggesting that the initial screening, selection and prioritisation of project proposals should be expanded to recognise not only the project type, but also each project’s demand profile.


Significance Since taking office last June, Ndayishimiye has taken small steps in this direction, but the progress and outlook remain mixed. Impacts Ndayishimiye’s attempts to mend ties with neighbouring Rwanda may enjoy the most success among his new initiatives. Burundi hopes a planned new rail link with Tanzania can help boost mining exports, but funding the USD1.9bn project may prove challenging. New infrastructure projects will be crucial for Burundi’s economy after years of anaemic growth, now exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


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