Hollande's turnaround may not help France's Socialists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Executive Power ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
New Phase

Subject President Francois Hollande's turnaround. Significance In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the presidency of Francois Hollande seems to have entered a new phase that many see as an opportunity to turn around what has been a very disappointing mandate so far. The national unity embodied by the historic gathering of January 11, where close to 4 million people took to the streets across France, has indeed partly translated into a 'January 11 spirit', reaffirming republican values of 'liberty, equality, fraternity'. This political momentum that the executive power has exploited skilfully is being sustained by an unexpected mix of positive economic developments in Europe, including the ECB's announcement that it will begin sovereign quantitative easing (QE) and the European Commission's more upbeat growth forecasts -- and in the oil market. Impacts The relative improvement of the economic prospects for France is unrelated to Hollande's actions. The structural political crisis remains as acute as ever, with the FN at a record standing in the polls. Economic issues are bound to become predominant again very quickly, once the phase of 'republican introspection' subsides.

Western politics may inflate Sahelian jihadi threat

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
History Of ◽  
Western Politics

Subject The militancy phenomenon. Significance The Sahel is often discussed in Western and international policy circles as a region with notable problems of porous borders, smuggling, trafficking and militant Islamists. In recent years, the Sahel has seen several high-profile terrorist attacks and violent incidents, and there is a history of Westerners being kidnapped in the Sahara. The political crisis in Mali in 2012-13 triggered military intervention by France and the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission. Impacts High-profile terrorist attacks may recur in the Sahel but will remain rare. Regional security cooperation will grow only slowly. Militant groups will not form significant links across the region or outside it.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

A legislative move in Quebec has broad implications

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
English Speakers ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parti Quebecois ◽  
New Phase

Significance The legislation has significant implications for the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, a key element of Canada’s constitution, as well as the wider concept of national unity, while signalling a new phase of Quebec nationalism. Impacts Quebec separatism will increasingly find expression in the far-left Quebec Solidaire party, rather than the Parti Quebecois. The CAQ will avoid a provincial referendum on separation for the foreseeable future. If Bill 96 becomes law, some English speakers will begin to leave Quebec to escape its language requirements. Immigrants may also be more wary about relocating to Quebec rather than other parts of Canada.

Oil is South Sudan's last economic lifeline

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Economic outlook and the impact of conflict. Significance July 11 marks the fourth anniversary of South Sudan's independence in 2011. Although the country has the modest advantage of a larger oil sector than most neighbouring countries, the country remains severely underdeveloped, with meagre infrastructure and high levels of poverty. In 2013 a political crisis at the centre of government led to a split in the ruling party and the eruption of an armed conflict with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) which has continued up to the present. Impacts The breakdown of peace talks between the government and SPLM-IO in March have ended plans to set up a national unity government by July. The new mediation framework involves a more direct role for donors, including the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States. Progress on reuniting parts of the ruling party may ease pressure on negotiations with the SPLM-IO.

Ethiopia’s political crisis may enter new phase

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Council Meeting ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
New Phase

Significance High-profile resignations from the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) have added to the uncertainty, while an ongoing drought and slowing economic growth have accentuated the government’s troubles. The significance of these developments was attested to by a leaked document from a November 10 National Security Council meeting, which painted an alarming picture of deep political, social and economic crisis. Impacts Internal party dissonance will be a greater risk than opposition competition for local and municipal elections in 2018. Political stability will be critical for the fruition of long-term investments in grand economic projects. Domestic tensions will distract Ethiopia’s foreign policy focus, especially in Eritrea, Somalia and South Sudan.

COVID-19 will test East African unity

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
African Unity ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
East African ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Lasting Effect

Significance However, it also faces a crisis moment as the COVID-19 pandemic tests regional bonds, exposes the bloc’s weaknesses and threatens to spill over into a wider regional political crisis. Impacts New non-tariff barriers adopted to curb the virus’s spread may have a lasting effect on intra-regional trade partnerships. Doubts over the bloc’s relevance on other political and economic issues will increase. Joint regional infrastructure projects will suffer amid political tensions and funding constraints.

West may help resolve Macedonia's political impasse

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bargaining Power ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
Eu Countries

Significance Opposition Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) supporters are angry with the president's unexpected pardon for all those being investigated for involvement in Macedonia's wiretapping scandal, which disproportionately benefits officials of the ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). The pardon coincided with the VMRO-DPMNE speaker of parliament fixing early elections for June 5 and the VMRO-DPMNE caretaker prime minister, Emil Dimitriev, annulling key decisions (including personnel appointments) of the SDSM's interior and labour ministers. Parliament had been dissolved in April over SDSM objections, which retaliated by boycotting the elections. Impacts All influential players at home and abroad have a vested interest in a workable compromise despite Macedonian brinkmanship and rhetoric. Deep political divisions within the ethnic majority will increase the role of minority Albanian politicians. This will improve minority bargaining power both domestically and internationally. VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM agree on the migrant issue and have the support of interested EU countries. Macedonia's borders will, therefore, be vigorously protected despite the political crisis.

Kamerhe arrest will destabilise Congo’s presidency

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Executive Power ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senior Official ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The Common ◽  
Decisive Action ◽  
First Time ◽  
Security Crises

Subject Dynamics within Congo's coalition government. Significance Vital Kamerhe, President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff and main political ally, was on April 8 arrested on corruption charges, the first time since independence that such a senior official has been imprisoned. Should the charges stick, Kamerhe’s exit from the centre of power would seriously disturb the fragile balance within the uneasy coalition government between Tshisekedi and Kamerhe’s parties, united in the Camp for Change (CACH) alliance, and the Common Front for Congo (FCC) of former President Joseph Kabila. Impacts The arrest creates a political crisis when the nation already faces two health crises (COVID-19 and Ebola) and multiple security crises. Kamerhe’s arrest will weaken the presidency’s capacity to exercise executive power, as Tshisekedi is not known for decisive action. The judiciary’s lack of independence will fuel fears of politicisation and may limit the potential for a wider anti-corruption effort.

Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19. Impacts To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment. Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election. Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.

Washington will engage more with South-east Asia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Set Up

Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.

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