Argentina's 2021 budget bill highlights uncertainties

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Investors

Significance The bill forecasts a fall in the primary deficit next year, mainly due to an expected drop in COVID-19-related welfare payments. The government also aims to boost public works to fuel growth and thus boost its support in the October 2021 mid-term elections. With global investors still reluctant to lend, Central Bank transfers will remain the main source of financing. Impacts If growth is weaker than expected, hoped-for reductions in social aid spending will prove impossible. Reliance on Central Bank transfers to finance the deficit will put pressure on prices, undermining the goal of lower inflation. Financial constraints will hinder the government’s ability to implement expansionary policies.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Scientific approach using AHP to prioritize low volume rural roads for pavement maintenance

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akhilesh Nautiyal ◽  
Sunil Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Rural Roads ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pavement Maintenance ◽  
Low Volume ◽  
The Government

PurposeA large number of roads have been constructed in the rural areas of India to connect habitations with the nearest major roads. With time, the pavements of these roads have deteriorated and they need some kind of maintenance, although they all do not need maintenance at the same time, as they have all not deteriorated to the same level. Hence, they have to be prioritized for maintenance.Design/methodology/approachIn order to present a scientific methodology for prioritizing pavement maintenance, the factors affecting prioritization and the relative importance of each were identified through an expert survey. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to scientifically establish weight (importance) of each factor based on its relative importance over other factors. The proposed methodology was validated through a case study of 203 low volume rural roads in the state of Himachal Pradesh in India. Ranking of these roads in order of their priority for maintenance was presented as the final result.FindingsThe results show that pavement distresses, traffic volume, type of connectivity and the socioeconomic facilities located along a road are the four major factors to be considered in determining the priority of a road for maintenance.Research limitations/implicationsThe methodology provides a comprehensive, scientific and socially responsible pavement maintenance prioritization method which will automatically select roads for maintenance without any bias.Practical implicationsTimely maintenance of roads will also save budgetary expenditure of restoration/reconstruction, leading to enhancement of road service life. The government will not only save money but also provide timely benefit to the needy population.Social implicationsRoad transportation is the primary mode of inland transportation in rural areas. Timely maintenance of the pavements will be of great help to the socioeconomic development of rural areas.Originality/valueThe proposed methodology lays special emphasis on rural roads which are small in length, but large in number. Instead of random, a scientific method for selection of roads for maintenance will be of great help to the public works department for better management of rural road network.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

RUFO expiration will not end Argentina debt lawsuits

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Debt Markets ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Severe Shortage

Significance Debt markets have failed to pressure Argentina to end the impasse with holdouts, with the government arguing that it could not offer them new terms without offering similar concessions to holders of restructured debt. With elections scheduled for October, the current government is likely to kick the problem to its successor, leaving Argentina facing continued litigation in US and UK courts. Impacts The Central Bank has effectively managed drawdowns of dollar reserves, helping the government to maintain its hard line against holdouts. While this policy persists, the country will remain locked out of international capital markets. The severe shortage of dollars will continue, and will continue to dampen growth prospects until resolved.

Kenyan MPs will assert legislative independence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The Relationship

Significance The bill received cross-party support in parliament, illustrating its independence from the executive, which opposes the bill. The relationship between the executive and legislative branches is complex, with constituents and the president vying for influence among lawmakers. Impacts MPs will oscillate between independence and compliance over the next twelve months. By vetoing the banking legislation, Kenyatta risks opposing a popular measure with elections looming. Banks will compromise with the government and central bank on self-regulation to avoid legislated rates.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Nigeria's hefty budget will not dispel investor unease

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
State Government ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Final Text

Subject Outlook for Nigeria's 2016 state budget. Significance The Senate this week will forward President Muhammadu Buhari the revised 2016 state budget, which it passed on March 23. Buhari says that he will assess it "ministry by ministry" before signing it into law to ensure that there are no irregularities in the final text. The 6.06-trillion-naira (30.6-billion-dollar) spending plan is 17 billion naira lower than the initial budget proposed by the government in December 2015. Impacts Buhari is unlikely to consider raising the value added tax given its effect on living costs, which would hurt the APC electorally. The central bank will likely keep currency restrictions in place, at least in the short term, despite their negative impact on firms. The tax compliance drive will be most effective in Lagos, due to heavy investment in collection capacity by the state government.

Hardening German attitudes on Greece risk a rupture

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
Greek Government ◽  
The Government

Significance Pressure is intensifying on the negotiators representing the Greek government and its creditors -- most importantly Germany -- to reach some form of agreement allowing the release of sufficient financial assistance for Greece to meet its payment obligations due by the end of June. However, the governing Greek coalition does not appear stable enough to adopt the reform programme demanded by its creditors. Meanwhile, German economic opinion on Greece is hardening, in the gathering belief that the risks to the rest of the euro-area from any concessions to Athens are now greater than those of a possible rupture. Impacts If the Greek negotiations drag on, the government may have to introduce capital controls to stem the outflow of bank deposits. Greece's central bank remains reliant on the ECB to continue authorising ELA, but opposition to ELA in Germany is growing. If the ECB withdrew ELA, Athens's choices would be to meet its creditors' demands, see a financial system collapse or exit the euro.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Policy tweaks will have modest impact in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Contraction ◽  
The Government ◽  
Primary Surplus

Significance The decision was taken despite inflation that reached 10.67% last year. It came days after President Dilma Rousseff signed into law the 2016 federal budget, which foresees a GDP contraction of 1.9% and a primary surplus corresponding to 0.5% of output -- both widely seen as overoptimistic assumptions. Amid a recession that could wipe some 6-7% off the Brazilian economy in two years, both the Central Bank and the government are under increasing pressure to adopt pro-growth policies. Impacts High-frequency indicators suggest the recession may have bottomed out. However, for now, this would only mean slower deterioration. Overall, 2016 will be another year of strong contraction.

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