US export controls on Huawei will have global impacts

Significance This escalates Washington’s attempts to prevent Chinese leadership in 5G telecommunications and presents Beijing with a huge challenge. It threatens to accelerate the ‘decoupling’ of the telecommunications equipment industry. Impacts Huawei is one of the largest chip buyers in the world, so US chip manufacturers may face significant loss of income. A race is underway between China’s efforts to upgrade indigenously and the growing obsolescence of its existing systems. If Huawei cannot service infrastructure overseas, customers will turn to costlier alternatives and may blame Washington for this expense. Beijing may be exercising restraint because of the US election, hoping a Biden presidency would relax some of the most aggressive measures.

Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Haiping Qiu ◽  
Min Zhao

Purpose The world currency is endowed with two inherent contradictions, namely, the general contradiction of all currencies and the special contradiction between the quality and quantity of the world currency. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In the wake of the Second World War, the USA, with its strong economic and military strength, established an international monetary system centered on the US dollar (USD). This gave USD the status of “world currency” and bounded it to the US imperialist hegemony with mutual integration and interaction, making it possible for USD capital to conduct international exploitation and wealth plundering extensively around the world. Findings The contradiction between the capital logic and the power logic, which is inherent in capital accumulation models of the new imperialism, also indicates the inevitable decline of USD. Originality/value This constitutes an important feature of the new imperialism. However, as a sovereign currency, USD has inextricable and inherent contradictions while exercising its function as the world currency.


Subject The Paris Agreement and US withdrawal. Significance President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change on June 1, prompting criticism from around the world. While current pledges are unlikely to change and the agreement will not see flight or withdrawal by other countries, US withdrawal imperils the ability of the agreement’s structure to accelerate climate action to a scale necessary to meet its objective of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees centigrade by 2100. Impacts The US private sector and sub-national polities will increase their climate action, though the loss of federal support will still be felt. A future US administration could re-enter the agreement, but substantial momentum will be lost diplomatically in the intervening years. Calls for greater adaptation -- rather than mitigation -- funds from climate-vulnerable states will grow more strident.


Subject Prospects for global trade in 2020-24. Significance US-China competition and a ‘populist backlash’ against trade in advanced nations are intensifying fears that the world is entering de-globalisation. World trade volumes are expected to grow modestly in 2019 and 2020, while the US-China trade conflict roils the multilateral trading system and global value chains, harming investment and job creation.


Significance Trade activity has been sharply downgraded: five years ago, the Fund expected 5.6% trade volumes growth this year. Now it sees 1.1%, one-third of the pace it forecast in April. The dichotomy between the Fund describing the recovery as “precarious”, and nonetheless predicting strong or steady growth for 2020, suggests that it perhaps has more faith in the precariousness than in the 2020-21 estimates. Impacts Growth is slowing in 90% of the world economy; this will rise if emerging markets such as Turkey and Iran suffer a double-dip recession. Targeting 2% inflation is becoming inappropriate for the ECB, the Bank of Japan and even the US Fed; thus, monetary innovation is likely. Financial markets focus on tariffs and the chances of a US-China deal, but this is misleading as non-tariff barriers are much larger.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 70-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike McGrath

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider the changes that have taken place in Interlending & Document Supply over the past 12 years. Design/methodology/approach – Research of the past 48 literature reviews published in Interlending & Document Supply. Findings – Over the past 12 years, Interlending & Document Supply has declined dramatically in much of the world, although less so in the US. It is likely to increase in the developing world but not as much as to compensate for the decline elsewhere. Originality/value – This is the only study that has been made of the changes in document supply in this century.


Subject Prospects for government intervention in the airline industry. Significance The leading Gulf airlines -- Emirates, Qatar and Etihad -- have risen rapidly over the last decade to become major players in the world air transport business. This has been at the expense of long-haul carriers in the United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific. US and European airlines are demanding action that could threaten liberalisation of the international airline industry. Impacts Neither the US government nor EU authorities are likely to unravel the network of international air transport agreements. Yet both Democratic and Republican politicians will be sensitive to demands from core constituencies. Further airline industry liberalisation and growth of Gulf based airlines may therefore be delayed.


Subject The outlook for remittance inflows. Significance Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was the only region in the world that registered an increase in family remittances last year. Impacts The rise in 'extra' remittances after last year's US presidential election will not be repeated this year. The taxing of remittances could partially reverse many years of efforts to lower sending costs. Increased employment in the US construction sector could help sustain remittances to LAC.


Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.


Significance Divided government provides scope for volatility at a perilous time for the pandemic-ravaged US economy, but markets are putting greater weight on the prospect of a vaccine accelerating the global recovery. Tech stocks have fallen as investors take their gains and opt for 'reflation trades' predicated on a recovery in sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Impacts Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook make up over 20% of the US stock market; firm fundamentals guard against a sharp sell-off. China’s renminbi has risen to the highest to the dollar since the US-China tariff battle ramped up in early 2018; more strength is likely. China’s export orders grew only marginally in October and import growth slowed, signposting that the world trade recovery could plateau.


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