Production cuts will rebalance the lithium market

Significance The two-year inventory glut was expected to clear in early 2020, but automaker shutdowns due to COVID-19 have rippled through the lithium value chain. Miners have cut production and delayed capacity upgrades in response to lower prices. Yet there are signs of demand improving, led by electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe. Impacts Russia’s Uranium One plans to begin producing lithium (mostly from foreign ores) in 2023, aiming to have 10% of the global market by 2030. London Metal Exchange is working to develop reference pricing to offer lithium hedging services; this would facilitate more trading. Nascent lithium recycling business will take about a decade to capture waste streams profitably. Prices to make capital spending worthwhile stand at about USD12,000 per tonne for carbonate and USD15,000 for hydroxide projects. Speciality grade prices will recover first; long-range EVs use prized nickel-heavy batteries, favouring lithium hydroxide over carbonate.

Subject Zinc market Significance The zinc price rose by more than 50% last year -- the best performance of all base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). After approaching a ten-year high of 2,900 dollars per tonne in November, the price remains sharply higher than its low of 1,500 a year ago. Mine closures in Australia and Ireland removed 1.1 million tonnes of zinc from the market, limiting the increase in output last year to an estimated 0.5%. In contrast, demand rose strongly, led by Chinese infrastructure spending, which accounts for around one-quarter of zinc demand. The 2016 deficit was estimated at 400,000-600,000 tonnes, the fifth year of shortfalls. Impacts Northern Chinese smelters are increasingly turning to North Korea for zinc concentrate, making the country China's third-largest supplier. Namibia's Skorpion mine may close two years earlier than forecast, removing an estimated 140,000 tonnes of refined metal from the market. South Africa's Gamsberg mine, one of the world's largest undeveloped zinc deposits, is due to begin production in 2018. Rising prices are attracting more buyers for the mines that Belgium-based producer Nyrstar has for sale under its restructuring programme.


Subject Nickel market tests unprecedented lows. Significance The price of nickel, viewed initially as a favourite metal for 2015, has fallen 40.5% overall last year, making it the worst-performing of the London Metal Exchange (LME)'s six base metals. At current levels, as much as 60% of the global production base is unprofitable and, if commercial rationale were to prevail, a significant part of this overcapacity should be closed. Instead, the supply response has been slow, boosting inventories. Impacts Low nickel prices will bolster the market share of austenitic stainless steel to the detriment of low-nickel alternatives. Lianyungang, China's leading port for nickel ore, will not be able to replace Indonesian volumes with imports from the Philippines. The uptick in merchant premia charged above the LME price in the European and US markets points to near-term stabilisation.


Subject The copper market. Significance The copper price has picked up by nearly 9% this year after weakening unexpectedly through 2018, losing 17.5%. Unusually, the slide was accompanied by metal inventories dropping steadily on the London Metal Exchange, Comex and Shanghai Metals Exchange. Stocks peaked at 900 kilotonnes (kt) in March 2018 before plummeting by 65% to start the year at the lowest since 2014. This rare combination of falling inventories and weakening prices has yet to find a viable explanation. Impacts Zambian import duties on concentrate has prompted 366 kt of capacity to be shutdown, reducing supply on the market. Boosting the outlook for US output, the US Environmental Protection Agency has approved Hudbay’s 112-kt-per-year Rosemont mine in Arizona. Chilean miner Codelco is spending 4.9 billion dollars to mine underground at Chuquicamata, aiming to extend operations by 40 years. Indonesia, the ninth largest copper producer, is to redirect output towards local smelters; it has cut annual export quotas by 25-75%.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 216-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Williamson

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to re-assess both the nature and sources of the competitive advantages which multinationals expanding from home bases in emerging economies (EMNEs) may enjoy in the global market. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses the results of 12 concurrent studies undertaken by a group of experts who were asked to examine how strategies for innovation, international value chain configuration and foreign mergers and acquisitions contributed to the competitive advantages of multinationals emerging from Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRICs), respectively. Findings – EMNEs do have competitive advantages that can underpin their expansion abroad, but these are mainly “non-traditional” advantages that have been built by finding innovative ways to leverage advantages of their home countries. EMNE’s internationalisation is as much about accessing new resources and knowledge to enable them to extend their competitive advantage, as it is a route to exploiting existing advantages over a larger set of markets. As a result, the global value chain structure of EMNEs tends to be fundamentally different from that chosen by incumbent multinationals. Research limitations/implications – The study is limited to EMNEs from the BRIC countries, but implications for EMNEs emerging from other countries are discussed. Originality/value – We bring to bear extensive data and a systematic approach to understanding the new breed of multinationals emerging from the BRIC countries; their sources of competitive advantage; and how they are using innovation, foreign investment and overseas acquisitions to transform global competition.


Subject Zinc market balance disappoints optimists. Significance Zinc, long viewed as a defensive investment in a stumbling metal universe, has failed to outperform other industrial commodities in 2015. Its price has dropped 29.4% year-to-date, a return worse than copper and aluminium. At 0.58 million metric tonnes (mmt), London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories are close to record highs and slow economic growth prospects in emerging countries keep the near-term consumption outlook soft. Impacts Chinese zinc importers will remain hampered by tight domestic credit and anticipation of further currency weakness. Attractiveness of import financing is undermined by the shrinking spread between Chinese and US interest rates. A wave of strikes in Peru, the world's third-largest zinc producer, will affect metal production in several provinces.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Shen ◽  
Yue Tang ◽  
Ying Xing ◽  
Pin Ng

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the evidence of risk spillovers between Shanghai and London non-ferrous futures markets using a dynamic Copula-CoVaR approach.Design/methodology/approachWith daily data, the marginal distributions and optimal Copula functions are determined using the kernel estimation method and squared Euclidean distance test. The conditional value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk spillover rate are computed from the Copula estimated parameters based on the Copula-CoVaR model. Also, the dynamic correlation coefficient between the two futures markets is investigated.FindingsThe empirical results are as follows: overall, the risk spillover effect exerted by the London Metal Exchange on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is more significant than vice versa. Moreover, the degree of risk spillovers exerted by the London Metal Exchange on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for zinc and copper are more significant when they are depressed in the London Metal Exchange. Moreover, the dynamic of the correlation between the Shanghai and London futures markets is attributed to be largely due to changes in the global economy.Research limitations/implicationsThe Copula-CoVaR model used in this paper is suitable for measuring the risk spillovers between two different markets, while the risk spillovers across multiple markets or the consideration of multiple risk factors cannot be accurately captured using this framework. Multiple state variables to capture time variation in the conditional moments of return series will be a topic in future research.Practical implicationsThe results provide theoretical support for risk management and monitoring of the non-ferrous futures markets.Originality/valueThe ability of the Copula function to accurately describe a nonlinear relationship and tail correlation is harnessed to measure the risk spillovers, explore the degree and direction of risk spillovers and identify the source of risk spillovers. The global economy is incorporated as a macro factor to explore its inner connection with the dynamic of risk spillovers in the non-ferrous metal futures market.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy DeLorenzo ◽  
Kate Parizeau ◽  
Mike von Massow

Purpose Ontario’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change seeks to legislate diverse waste streams (including food waste) by implementing Bill 151, known colloquially as the Waste Free Ontario Act. The purpose of this study is to investigate how stakeholders in Ontario’s food and waste systems perceive the prospective legislation. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on interviews with stakeholders across the food value chain in Ontario, as well as an analysis of legislation and related documents. Findings The paper argues that Bill 151 represents the Province’s commitment to an ecological modernization paradigm. This research uncovers the lines of tension that may exist in the implementation of food waste policy. These lines of tension represent stakeholders’ ideological perspectives on food waste, including whether it signals an efficient or inefficient economy, whether legislation should prioritize economic or environmental goals and whether it is more appropriate for legislation to incentivize desired food waste treatments or penalize/prohibit undesired activities. Originality/value The analysis reveals potential allies in the regulatory process, likely points of contention and areas where greater consensus may be forged, depending on government efforts to reframe the issues at stake.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Q. Al-Khalidi Al-Maliki

PurposeThis study mainly focuses on the potentiality of the e-commerce industry's opportunities and limitations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) specifically toward non-oil revenue sectors.Design/methodology/approachE-commerce contribution to the retail market industry becomes more global and more flexible with the rapid growth of the Internet and information technology revolution. A new way of conducting business is rendered by e-commerce, which helps to make a profit electronically.FindingsThe main contributions of e-commerce are management of company operations, easy and cheaper ways of extending their markets and coordinating with the value chain across different borders. In addition, the Internet and e-commerce are responsible for removing language barriers, cultural diversification and extending the market to the national boundaries. The countries would have many innovative and dynamic aspects by the beginning of the global market that increases national revenue, market, employment opportunity, capital and access to technology and information.Originality/valueAt present, KSA's national revenue mostly depends on oil and its related commodities, while other trades compete with the global market and increase national income. So, it is essential to increase other Saudi products to reach a global business level through e-commerce. Moreover, the study suggests accessing new markets and participating in global production to improve e-commerce structure without affecting current employment patterns, industry structure, productivity and Saudi culture.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Aluisius Hery Pratono ◽  
Irzameingindra Putri Radjamin

Subject area Niche products and environmental ethics. Study level/applicability The case is suitable for undergraduate students who have some understanding of competitive advantage in emerging economies, of niche products, the resource-based perspective and environmental ethics. Case overview The case concerns the Indonesian coffee industry, specifically the production of Kopi Luwak, a coffee that involves a type of local wild animal as an essential part of the process. The case outlines a typical problem for a new leader who has to start his tenure with a creditable performance. The company is a resource-based one that has to manage a potential risk of violating environmental ethics. Expected learning outcomes The case reveals the value of the international value chain for a cup of coffee. Through investigating the intersection between business feasibility and conservation issues, students should be able to understand what are appropriate business opportunities with environmental ethics considerations. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available; consult the librarian for access.


Subject Gold price prospects. Significance Gold has enjoyed a modest recovery this year. Investors have been attracted to its safe haven qualities amid signs that enthusiasm for the shift to reflationary US policies is waning. Gold prices fell towards the end of 2016 as the dollar surged, reinforced by Donald Trump's surprise election and the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rise in a year. However, rising prices during January-July meant gold prices still rose by nearly 10% in 2016, reflecting renewed investor interest in developed markets and increased caution towards emerging markets. Impacts The London Metal Exchange will launch gold contracts in 2017 for the first time since 1980, competing with local over-the-counter markets. Deutsche Bank is accused of manipulating gold prices from 2004-13 and will pay 60 million dollars to settle private antitrust litigation. The Fed’s independence may be questioned, threatening monetary stability and raising interest in other assets, including gold.


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