Australian labour reforms face tough political test

Significance The reforms are scheduled to be debated in parliament in 2021. The planned changes are a political gamble by the governing Liberal-National coalition. Impacts The governing coalition will push further to weaken trade unions. As the 2022 election approaches, the government will not seek any deeper labour reforms in this term. COVID-19’s economic effects will increase pressure for a dynamic labour market as the economy recovers.

Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.


Subject Labour market conditions in China. Significance China’s official unemployment rate in 2014 was 4.09%, up from 4.05% in 2013. For the three previous years, it had stood still at exactly 4.10%. These implausible data give the illusion of stability during a period of slowing growth and economic uncertainty, and obscure a complex and volatile labour market that now presents a serious challenge to the government. The government is well aware of the pressures on the labour market and has stated its intention to create 10 million new jobs this year. Impacts Fewer young people will enter the workforce, and those who do will have much higher expectations. An older workforce means higher wage demands and the payment of pensions and medical insurance. China will have to find suitable employment for an increasing number of graduates; 7.5 million this year alone. Vocational and on-the-job training will have to revamped and invigorated to meet the demands of both employers and employees. The government's reliance on 'entrepreneurial spirit' to create new jobs could create more social tension.


Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.


Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.


Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.


Subject Mexico's trade unions. Significance On September 11, the head of Mexico’s main business lobby Coparmex called on Congress to advance several pending issues relating to labour reform before the 2018 elections, including legislation on labour relations, union regulation and collective bargaining contracts. The call comes as the government attempts to resist pressure from Washington and Ottawa to address labour disparities as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations. Impacts Government and business will oppose any NAFTA alterations that might harm Mexico’s comparative advantages. Union leaders will resist strengthening the right to free association, which would allow workers to opt for alternative unions. The Confederation of Workers of Mexico will put pressure on its more than 11,000 affiliated unions to vote for the PRI in 2018. The independent National Union of Workers will call on affiliates to support leftist options. Discontent has increased among unionised workers, who will not necessarily vote along the same lines as the leaders.


Significance However, the Council's caution that “additional measures” could be taken if Myanmar's government is deemed not to be tackling the crisis sufficiently was taken by local media to mean a threat of sanctions. The government is in a difficult position: tackling the crisis means navigating competing political interests, implying an impasse that is likely to have negative economic effects. Impacts Development donors will hesitate to work on projects with Myanmar’s government. Some businesses will re-evaluate their Myanmar market engagement and investment strategies. The refugee crisis will test the government’s weak institutional capacity.


Significance The government has capitulated to demands by trade unions to lower the retirement age despite a growing demographic imbalance and public finances under strain. In the process, the government has demonstrated its weakness and unpopularity. Impacts Surrender to the unions will encourage discontented public sector workers to seek pay rises, with teachers threatening strike action. Popular discontent with fiscal cutbacks will pose a risk to plans for Croatia to adopt the euro early next decade. Divisions at home will limit Croatia’s ability to push its political priorities when it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2020.


Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.


2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 654-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeria Pulignano ◽  
Domenico Carrieri ◽  
Lucio Baccaro

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the developments which have characterized Italy’s industrial relations from post-war Fordism to neo-liberal hegemony and recent crisis, with a particular focus on the major changes occurred in the twenty-first century, especially those concerning concertative (tripartite) policy making between the government, the employers’ organizations and the trade unions. Design/methodology/approach This study is a conceptual paper which analysis of main development trends. Findings Italy’s industrial relations in the twenty-first century are characterized by ambivalent features which are the heritage of the past. These are summarized as follows: “collective autonomy” as a classical source of strength for trade unions and employers’ organization, on the one hand. On the other hand, a low level of legislative regulation and weak institutionalization, accompanied by little engagement in a generalized “participative-collaborative” model. Due to the instability in the socio-political setting in the twenty-first century, unions and employers encounter growing difficulties to affirm their common points of view and to build up stable institutions that could support cooperation between them. The result is a clear reversal of the assumptions that had formed the classical backdrop of the paradigm of Italy’s “political exchange.” This paradigm has long influenced the way in which the relationships between employers, trade unions and the state were conceived, especially during 1990s and, to some extent, during 2000s, that is the development of concertative (tripartite) policy making. However, since the end of 2000s, and particularly from 2010s onwards national governments have stated their intention to act independently of the choices made by the unions (and partially the employers). The outcome is the eclipse of concertation. The paper explores how the relationships among the main institutional actors such as the trade unions (and among the unions themselves), the employers, and the state and how politics have evolved, within a dynamic socio-political and economic context. These are the essential factors needed to understand Italy’s industrial relations in the twenty-first century. Originality/value It shows that understanding the relationship among the main institutional actors such as the trade unions (and among the unions themselves), the employers and the state and their politics is essential to understand the change occurred in contemporary Italy’s industrial relations.


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