Primaries will launch tense Argentine electoral cycle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Subsequent Loss ◽  
Rejection Rates

Significance The primaries, pushed back from this month to September 12, will generate few surprises but offer an opportunity to gauge the relative support of each coalition ahead of the midterm elections in which half of the 257-seat Lower House and 24 of 54 Senate seats will be contested. Impacts The next presidential contest may well be between two candidates whose rejection rates far outweigh their approval. The incumbent is unlikely to be the government’s presidential candidate in 2023. Government moderates, including the president, will be blamed for a poor election result and for any subsequent loss of support.

Falcon bid in Venezuela will divide and could conquer

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result

Significance The announcement follows former Lara state Governor Henri Falcon's decision to register as a presidential candidate on February 26, which prompted the opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) to expel him the following day. Falcon represents a credible challenge to President Nicolas Maduro, but the mood of voters is unpredictable. Impacts Falcon’s participation gives the election a measure of legitimacy, detracting from opposition and international efforts to discredit it. Maduro has seen an uptick in poll ratings but Falcon could absorb a disaffected Chavista base. Other minor candidates are unlikely to have an impact on the election result.

Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Framework ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Strong Position ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.

Trump claims of executive privilege expected to fail

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Tax Returns ◽  
Personal Testimony ◽  
State Prosecutors ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Efforts to investigate the former president’s tax returns, together with a separate congressional investigation into the events of January 6, are raising questions over the extent to which documentation and personal testimony can be withheld from Congress under the principle of executive privilege. Impacts Congress will seek testimony from Trump administration officials about alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. State prosecutors are seeking access to Trump’s tax records as they examine possible conflicts of interest while in office. A Biden refusal to endorse Trump claims of executive privilege risks further partisan division over the January 6 investigation.

Argentine opposition will struggle to maintain unity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Right ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type

Significance However, ahead of the November 14 legislative elections, JxC will have to mend internal divisions between moderates and hardliners, respond to the challenge posed by new right-wing forces, and postpone debates about their 2023 presidential candidate. Impacts Neither JxC nor the FdT as yet has a clear presidential frontrunner for 2023. Victories by Rodriguez Larreta’s allies in the November elections would strengthen his leadership within the coalition. JxC will continue to face challenges related to Macri’s widespread rejection and criticism of his government. Hardliners in JxC will push for a more confrontational stance against the Peronist government, which could backfire.

Vote breakdown will shape Nigeria poll outcome

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off

Subject Scenarios for Nigeria's presidential and legislative elections. Significance Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for February 14, with governorship polls set for February 28. The ruling People's Democratic Party's (PDP) candidate is President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term. The opposition All Progressives Congress' presidential candidate is General Muhammadu Buhari. The presidential polls are expected to be the most competitive since 1999, laying the groundwork for several different outcomes. Impacts On one level, the security chief's call for electoral delay was designed to detract from the army's failure against Boko Haram. However, it also reflects valid concerns about voter card distribution challenges, particularly in the north. Yet a decision by the commission to delay the election at this stage would be highly controversial, likely to create a backlash. The commission called the election three months ahead of the constitutional requirement, although primarily to make time for a run-off. Yet low popular confidence in electoral administration will raise violence risks, particularly in the north.

Zambia leader struggles with reforms and credibility

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Areas

Significance It will enter negotiations at a time when the PF is becoming increasingly repressive. Earlier this week, the authorities arrested former opposition presidential candidate Hakainde Hichilema for sedition and unlawful assembly. Impacts Tolerance of partisan violence during the campaign could have set a precedent, portending further clashes. Urban protests tend to be localised and relatively short-lived, and are unlikely to scale up to the national level. Lungu will try to leverage Mutati's appointment to attract what remains of the MMD's support base. High and rising unemployment, especially in mining areas, will continue to be a source of popular grievance.

Kazakhstan will silence dissenting voices amid crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
International Image ◽  
International Human ◽  
The Government

Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.

All factors point to left-right coalition in Portugal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject The outlook for the October 4 parliamentary election. Significance The October 4 parliamentary election will be the first since Portugal exited its euro-area/IMF bailout. The poll launches a Portuguese electoral cycle which includes the January 2016 presidential election, and a series of parliamentary elections in euro-area post-bailout states, with Spain and Ireland to follow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race between the governing two-party centre-right alliance and the main opposition Socialists (PS), but -- in contrast to other bailout states -- no breakthrough by any new or radical force. Impacts Given the closeness of parties' opinion poll standings, the campaign period could be decisive. Whatever its make-up, the next government is likely to be committed to fiscal consolidation and Portugal's post-bailout obligations. An election win for Portugal's governing centre-right would be a pre-election fillip for its counterpart in Spain.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Cartes may win re-election wrangle in Paraguay

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Dialogue Process

Significance Efrain Alegre, president of the opposition Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA), did not attend the three-hour meeting, which agreed that the constitutional amendment allowing for presidential re-election would not be voted on in the Lower House until the negotiations conclude. It also agreed that the political dialogue would be reconvened on April 7, when former President Fernando Lugo was expected to attend. However, hours after the meeting ended, opposition politicians led by Senate President Roberto Acevedo said that they were withdrawing from the dialogue process until Cartes abandoned the planned amendment. Impacts Further protests are likely as Cartes presses ahead with the re-election amendment. The president will benefit from deep opposition divisions. Constitutional change would erode the intended brakes on presidential longevity and authoritarianism.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document