Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.

Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.


Significance The 4 million votes secured by Ivan Duque of the Democratic Centre (CD) in a presidential primary, held the same day, affirmed that group as the country’s leading electoral force. Right-leaning parties are, at best, ambivalent about the country’s peace processes, but the strengthening of their position was not sufficiently conclusive to suggest a reversal of the peace process under the next Congress. Impacts No significant shift away from Colombia’s pro-investment policies is likely in 2018. The FARC’s poor election results will provide little incentive for the ELN to follow them down the path of democratic politics. The crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, and the wave of migrants that it has caused, are likely to push Colombian voters further to the right.


Significance The recent state elections demonstrate that German voting patterns are becoming increasingly flexible. The right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) achieved double-digit results in all three elections and became the second-strongest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The election results also increase the intra-party pressure on Merkel and highlight the tensions within the coalition, but at the moment, neither a radical change in Merkel's refugee policies nor early federal elections seem likely. Impacts In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens will form a coalition government with the weakened CDU. In Rhineland-Palatinate, a 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Liberal Democrats and Greens) is the most likely outcome. In Saxony-Anhalt, a 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD and Greens) is the only politically feasible option. In two states a CDU-SPD coalition would not have a sufficient majority to govern, which is a first in the Federal Republic's history.


Significance These results indicate that the incumbent A Partnership for National Unity-Alliance for Change (APNU-AFC) coalition has narrowly won re-election, returning David Granger as president for another term. However, opposition parties have contested the results, with the international community also voicing concerns about the conduct and outcome of the elections. Impacts The contested election count is likely to lead to an overhaul of GECOM staffing and procedures once the current dispute is settled. Companies are set to hold off new investments in Guyana until the incoming government and policy stance are confirmed. The fraud allegations will also focus attention on May elections in neighbouring Suriname, whose ruling party is also seeking re-election. Control over expected windfall oil revenues will make this election result especially hotly contested.


Significance This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023. Impacts The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials. While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats. An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.


Significance The results show a waning interest in the right-wing populist Freedom Party (PVV), which until mid-February was leading the polls. The PVV had been an unlikely candidate to enter government -- even if it had emerged as the strongest party -- as no other political party was willing to cooperate with it. However, the significance of the vote lies in the fact that it could reflect wider trends in Europe ahead of the French and German elections taking place later this year. Impacts The election provided a significant boost to the Green Left Party with its up-and-coming young leader Jesse Klaver. The PvdA, Rutte's coalition partner, alienated voters with its support for unpopular austerity measures. Senior party members have come forward suggesting that the PvdA should dissolve. Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem may have to stand down as Eurogroup president if his PvdA is not involved in the new coalition. The election results have been welcomed by most European countries and are widely regarded as an anti-populist pro-Europe stance.


Subject Italy's Five Star Movement. Significance Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) was catapulted to prominence on a wave of popular protest in the 2013 general election. Despite its internal arguments, structural ambiguity and many questionable tactics, it has not, like similar populist parties, collapsed in on itself. Rather, its influence on national politics has grown steadily. Impacts The M5S's refusal to work with other parties forces Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party to stay in an awkward alliance with the right. Against earlier pledges, Renzi may carry on even if he is defeated in the referendum, but his authority would be diminished. A 'no' vote in the referendum could precipitate a serious worsening of the credit crunch driving the Italian recession. A standoff between Rome and Brussels over how to respond to an Italian banking crisis could threaten the stability of the entire euro-area.


1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-8
Author(s):  
Khehla Shubane ◽  
Louise Stack

The African National Congress (ANC) emerged from South Africa’s 1999 election in a greatly strengthened position. Now, not only is the constitutionally obligatory five-year period of a government of national unity over—which means that the ANC as the majority party is entitled to rule the country on its own—but the ANC increased its already strong majority in Parliament to just short of two-thirds.In this article, we first discuss the context of the political debate in which the election took place, as well as the outcome of the election. We then examine the prospects for the consolidation of democracy in South Africa in light of the election results and in relation to the issues surrounding electoral procedure, a dominant party system, and opposition politics within the context of a still very much racially divided society.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei A. Gulin

AbstractA review of the stability theory of symmetrizable time-dependent difference schemes is represented. The notion of the operator-difference scheme is introduced and general ideas about stability in the sense of the initial data and in the sense of the right hand side are formulated. Further, the so-called symmetrizable difference schemes are considered in detail for which we manage to formulate the unimprovable necessary and su±cient conditions of stability in the sense of the initial data. The schemes with variable weight multipliers are a typical representative of symmetrizable difference schemes. For such schemes a numerical algorithm is proposed and realized for constructing stability boundaries.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (14) ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
Eldha Sampepana ◽  
Suroto Hadi Saputra

In the manufacture of detergents still using surfactants (which serves as an emulsifier) of crude oil in the form of the AS. (alcohol sulfate) and LAS (linear alkylbenzene sulfonate), where this type of surfactant cannot be degraded by microorganisms when discharged into the environment, causing environmental pollution. Methyl ester sulfonate surfactant is an anionic surfactant which has a composition of C16 - C18 fatty acids are capable of acting against nature deterjensinya, while the C12 - C14 fatty acids contribute to the foaming effect. The purpose of this study was to look for the formulation of methyl ester sulfonate (MES) the right to produce a good detergent by using materials such as methyl ester sulfonate surfactant self-made, methyl ester sulfonate and sodium lauryl market Ester Sulfate (SLS) with a concentration of 15 %, 20 % and 25 %. Detergent results of the study have high detergency ( net ) compared with the detergency of detergent commercial, have a stable emulsion stability, the stability of the foam/foam detergent power made from methyl ester sulfonate surfactant produces less foam, compared with a detergent made from SLS and surfactant SNI 06-4075-1996 standards.


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