All factors point to left-right coalition in Portugal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject The outlook for the October 4 parliamentary election. Significance The October 4 parliamentary election will be the first since Portugal exited its euro-area/IMF bailout. The poll launches a Portuguese electoral cycle which includes the January 2016 presidential election, and a series of parliamentary elections in euro-area post-bailout states, with Spain and Ireland to follow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race between the governing two-party centre-right alliance and the main opposition Socialists (PS), but -- in contrast to other bailout states -- no breakthrough by any new or radical force. Impacts Given the closeness of parties' opinion poll standings, the campaign period could be decisive. Whatever its make-up, the next government is likely to be committed to fiscal consolidation and Portugal's post-bailout obligations. An election win for Portugal's governing centre-right would be a pre-election fillip for its counterpart in Spain.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

Park will persist with tough reforms in South Korea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Labour Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections

Subject Political developments in South Korea. Significance After violent street protests last month against planned labour law and textbook changes, a much smaller demonstration in Seoul on December 5 -- which police had sought to ban -- passed off peacefully. All this comes against the background of a slowing economy and the approach of a parliamentary election next April. Impacts Opposition weakness and division will benefit Saenuri in parliamentary elections next April. Any progress at new inter-Korean talks tomorrow will also benefit the ruling camp. Even if labour reforms are enacted, economic prospects in 2016 are not propitious. A slowing Chinese economy will negatively affect South Korea, though the new FTA with China (effective December 20) will help.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

Moldovan election run-off too close to call

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance Sandu, the pro-EU, reformist challenger, defied public opinion polls and early results to become the principal beneficiary of a large turnout among Moldovans abroad, almost twice those voting in the first-round 2016 presidential election. As neither scored over 50%, Sandu and Dodon will contest a second round on November 15. Impacts Electoral discourse around Moldova's external orientation will become more pointed. Dodon failed to anticipate a strong showing by a pro-Western and pro-reform diaspora. Practical voter mobilisation on both sides will be complicated by the pandemic.

scholarly journals A Strange Affair: The 2002 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France

2002 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Cole
Keyword(s):  
Electric Shock ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Fifth Republic ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Mode Of Operation ◽  
Traditional Mode ◽  
Left And Right

The 2002 Elections In France Were A Gripping Drama Unfolding in four acts. Each act has to be understood as part of a whole, as each election was ultimately dependent upon the results of the first round of the presidential election on 21 April. However untypical in the context of Fifth Republican history, the first round of the presidential election strongly inf luenced the peculiar course of the subsequent contests. The outcome of the first election on the 21 April – at which the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen won through to the second ballot against Jacques Chirac, narrowly distancing the outgoing premier Lionel Jospin – created an electric shock which reverberated around the streets of Paris and other French cities and sparked a civic mobilization without parallel since May '68. The end-result of this exceptional republican mobilization was to secure the easy (initially rather unexpected) re-election of Chirac as president at the second round two weeks later. The election of 5 May was unlike a typical second-round election. Rather than a bipolar contest pitting left and right over a choice of future governmental orientations, it was a plebiscite in favour of democracy (hence Chirac) against the far-right (Le Pen). Chirac was re-elected overwhelmingly as president, supported by at least as many leftwing as right-wing voters. This enforced plebiscite against the extreme right allowed a resurgent Jacques Chirac to claim a renewed presidential authority. At the parliamentary election of 9 and 16 June, the Fifth Republic reverted to a more traditional mode of operation, as a new ‘presidential party’, informally launched just weeks before the elections, obtained a large overall majority of seats to ‘support the President’ in time-honoured Fifth Republican tradition.

Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

Duda’s second term will entrench PiS hold on Poland

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Very High

Significance The stakes in Poland’s presidential election were very high and concerned mostly who should wield the presidency’s veto powers. If the opposition had prevailed, it would have presented a potentially huge legislative barrier to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) and could have triggered a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Continuing the PiS judicial overhaul will spark further clashes between Warsaw and Brussels and between PiS and the opposition. PiS may be expected to overhaul non-state institutions, such as the private media, universities and NGOs. PiS dominance, with the Sejm and presidency on its side, will deepen Poland’s gradual Orbanisation.

Prospects for Russian politics in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Russian Politics

Subject Prospects for Russian politics in 2022. Significance Now that the Kremlin has dealt with the immediate domestic policy priorities of constitutional change and parliamentary elections, 2022 will be a year of consolidation and continuity. The administration's focus will be on preparing what it regards as optimal, stable conditions for the presidential election in 2024. The Communist Party has a chance to build popularity among anti-government voters, but may not be bold enough given the Kremlin's limited tolerance for rebellious behaviour.

Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
Gary King
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Campaign Strategy ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Media ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

As most political scientists know, the outcome of the American presidential election can be predicted within a few percentage points (in the popular vote), based on information available months before the election. Thus, the general campaign for president seems irrelevant to the outcome (except in very close elections), despite all the media coverage of campaign strategy. However, it is also well known that the pre-election opinion polls can vary wildly over the campaign, and this variation is generally attributed to events in the campaign. How can campaign events affect people's opinions on whom they plan to vote for, and yet not affect the outcome of the election? For that matter, why do voters consistently increase their support for a candidate during his nominating convention, even though the conventions are almost entirely predictable events whose effects can be rationally forecast?In this exploratory study, we consider several intuitively appealing, but ultimately wrong, resolutions to this puzzle and discuss our current understanding of what causes opinion polls to fluctuate while reaching a predictable outcome. Our evidence is based on graphical presentation and analysis of over 67,000 individual-level responses from forty-nine commercial polls during the 1988 campaign and many other aggregate poll results from the 1952–92 campaigns.We show that responses to pollsters during the campaign are not generally informed or even, in a sense we describe, ‘rational’. In contrast, voters decide, based on their enlightened preferences, as formed by the information they have learned during the campaign, as well as basic political cues such as ideology and party identification, which candidate to support eventually. We cannot prove this conclusion, but we do show that it is consistent with the aggregate forecasts and individual-level opinion poll responses. Based on the enlightened preferences hypothesis, we conclude that the news media have an important effect on the outcome of presidential elections – not through misleading advertisements, sound bites, or spin doctors, but rather by conveying candidates' positions on important issues.

Poll win will boost premier of Azerbaijan secession

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Member State ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Self ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Politics

Subject The parliamentary election in Nagorno-Karabakh. Significance The newly elected 33-seat legislature in the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR, which no UN member state recognises as independent) now comprises five political parties and blocs, with the prime minister's party garnering slightly fewer than half the seats. With a new parliamentary coalition to be formed, positioning will now begin for the presidential election NKR will hold in 2017, as the incumbent is in his second and final term. Impacts The strong showing of the premier's party will bolster his bid to run as Karabakh's next president in two years. However, new parties in parliament may challenge the incumbent leadership, and coalition politics may prove testy. Armenia, which negotiates for Karabakh in peace talks with Azerbaijan, may seek to strengthen its influence in Stepanakert.

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